The Liberty Flames will look to recover from their first loss of the year as they host the streaking Jacksonville State Gamecocks in a Conference USA battle tonight.
While the Flames have a gaudy record, they’ve failed to live up to expectations for bettors this season, which is why I’m taking the Gamecocks to cover in my Jacksonville State vs. Liberty predictions.
I’ll dive into why I think Jacksonville State has the advantage in this matchup below in my free college football picks for Wednesday, October 30.
Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, with the game airing on CBS Sports Network.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty prediction and best bet
My best bet
Jacksonville State +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Liberty has been one of the more intriguing Group of 5 teams under head coach Jamey Chadwell. The Flames went 13-1 last year and were undefeated in 2024 before last week’s shocking loss to the previously winless Kennesaw State Owls.
But the impressive records have raised many questions about exactly who Liberty is playing. Last season, when faced with a game against the Oregon Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl, the Flames looked thoroughly outmatched and lost 45-6.
The loss to Kennesaw State was only the latest disappointing performance for a team that has a 1-5 record against the spread this season.
Despite often being favored by multiple scores, Liberty has struggled to put away some weak teams. That might be best exemplified by their season-opening win over the FCS Campbell Camels at home, when the Flames won 41-24 and were up just one score at halftime.
Liberty now has to contend with a Jacksonville State team that has won four straight games and which sits at 3-0 in Conference USA play. Unlike the Flames, the Gamecocks have ripped through their league rivals, winning each game by at least 22 points and doing what you’d expect against Kennesaw State, winning 63-24 on the road over the lowly Owls.
In a weaker league like this one, having one overwhelming strength can be enough to get you by. In Jacksonville State’s case, it has relied on a strong running game, rushing for 256.3 yards per game and six yards per attempt. Those numbers rank among the top five in the nation, and even when adjusting for the Gamecocks’ weak schedule, they’re still impressive.
Liberty has been competent against the running game but hasn’t been able to slow down opposing quarterbacks. That should be good news for dual-threat Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff. While Huff hasn’t posted outstanding numbers, he has been efficient with the ball, putting up a 154.9 passer rating while also running for eight scores on the year.
While Liberty’s defense has looked good against weaker offensive units, Jacksonville State has the weapons to put up points against the Flames and potentially win outright in what should be a shootout. The Flames haven’t shown me they can meet expectations all year, and I don’t see that changing against an underrated Gamecocks team.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Jacksonville State +2.5
Over 63.5
Tre Stewart anytime touchdown
Jacksonville State is primed to cover, but this should be a game in which both offenses have their way. That’s why my same-game parlay is combining a bet on the Gamecocks with the Over. The number is high, but there’s little sign that either defense will regularly slow down the opposing attack, so I’m comfortable predicting an onslaught of points.
For Jacksonville State, the most likely scorer is running back Tre Stewart. The senior has scored in each of his last five games, and Stewart has a total of 12 touchdowns on the year. He’ll continue to be a key part of the Gamecocks offense on Wednesday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jacksonville State vs Liberty odds
Jacksonville State vs Liberty live odds
Jacksonville State vs Liberty opening odds
- Jacksonville State vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -2.5
- Jacksonville State vs. Liberty moneyline: Jacksonville State +105, Liberty -125
- Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Over/Under: 63.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jacksonville State vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- Jacksonville State is 4-3 against the spread this season, while Liberty is just 1-5 ATS on the year.
- The Gamecocks are 3-0 ATS in Conference USA play. The Flames are 0-4 ATS in their conference games this season.
- The Over has done well for both teams, going 5-2 when Jacksonville State plays and 3-2-1 in Liberty’s games this season.
- The Gamecocks are playing to an average total of 69.0 ppg in 2024, with Liberty’s average total coming in at 53.7 ppg.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty betting trend to know
Jacksonville State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Jacksonville State vs Liberty.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-30, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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