The Memphis Tigers seek their first win in the American Athletic Conference as they battle the South Florida Bulls on Saturday afternoon.
This game was delayed a day due to Hurricane Milton, but that doesn't affect my Memphis vs. South Florida predictions — which believe the Tigers won't be affected in delivering as road chalk.
Read on to see why Memphis covering the spread is among my favorite college football picks for this weekend.
Memphis vs South Florida prediction and best bet
My best bet
Memphis -7 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Memphis Tigers can pile up points, ranking inside the Top 40 nationally at 33.2 points per game.
The calling card for Memphis is the aerial attack, led by senior quarterback Seth Hanigan, which is averaging 270.6 pass yards per game, just outside the Top 30 in the country.
He’s supported by an effective rush attack, which rings up 159 yards per contest behind another senior in running back Mario Anderson Jr., who registered 118 yards and a score in their last game against Middle Tennessee — the third time in the last four games he’s crossed the century mark.
This is all bad news for USF, which sits 119th (out of 134 FBS programs) at 32.8 points against per game and allowed 95 points in its last two contests (to Tulane and Miami).
South Florida can score a little, but the Tigers' defense allows just 18.4 points per game, anchored by a strong pass defense.
Memphis has won three straight in this head-to-head, and although they’ve failed to cover the spread in the last two games, those were loftier double-digit figures.
With a good offense and sturdy defense, Memphis should handle a South Florida side that’s just not very good.
Memphis vs South Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Memphis -7
Mario Anderson Jr. anytime touchdown
Under 60.5 points
Anderson is 42nd in the nation in rushing with 438 yards and a healthy 5.8 average per carry, as he's thriving after transferring out of South Carolina (and the SEC) with four TDs in his last two games and eight overall on the year.
The Bulls have allowed a whopping 10 rushing touchdowns in the last two games, so expect Anderson to push his TD streak to three straight games and five of six overall.
The total seems inflated after last year’s 109-point bonanza, as 60.5 points seems a little lofty considering the Tigers have gone Under the total in four of five and South Florida Unders are 3-1-1.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Memphis vs South Florida odds
Memphis vs South Florida live odds
Memphis vs South Florida opening odds
- Memphis vs. South Florida spread: South Florida +5.5
- Memphis vs. South Florida moneyline: Memphis -225, South Florida +180
- Memphis vs. South Florida Over/Under: 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Memphis vs South Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis is 2-2 against the spread as a betting favorite this year.
- USF is 1-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
- The Under is 5-2-1 in eight head-to-head meetings.
Memphis vs South Florida betting trend to know
The Under is 2-1-1 in USF's last four home games. Find more college football betting trends for Memphis vs South Florida.
Memphis vs South Florida game info
| Location: | Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Memphis vs South Florida latest injuries
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