Nothing cures holiday stress quite like college football bowl season and few bowl matchups have been as electric as the Cure Bowl in recent memory. The last four Cure Bowls have been one-score finals, and this afternoon's Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers showdown could follow that trend.
The college football odds have the Mountaineers as 6.5-point favorites over a RedHawks program that won the MAC Championship thanks to terrific defense. Chuck Martin’s squad will need to continue to dominate that side of the ball given its quarterback situation heading into a potentially low-scoring game at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando.
Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State on December 16.
Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State best odds
Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State picks and predictions
After losing starting quarterback Brett Gabbert to a season-ending injury in October, it looked like the Miami (OH) RedHawks’ chances in the MAC would be dashed. Instead, Chuck Martin pulled off one of the best coaching jobs in the country and upset 11-1 Toledo to win the conference championship.
The RedHawks did it with dominating defense and ball-control offense, and they’ll need to do it again in a game where the Under 44.5 stands out. Not only is it an enticing number because Miami (OH)’s defense is one of the best in the Group of Five, but it’ll also be without Gabbert and backup quarterback Aveon Smith.
Smith entered the transfer portal shortly after helping Miami (OH) win the MAC. While he left a lot to be desired as a passer — he completed 50% of his throws and threw just two touchdowns — his mobility was a real difference-maker for an offense that leaned heavily on the ground game.
So while the Appalachian State Mountaineers defense has been iffy this season under defensive coordinator Scot Sloan, it’s got the opportunity to keep this offense down due to the sheer inexperience of Miami (OH)’s quarterback. This was a program averaging just 21.5 points per game since losing Gabbert.
Martin said that Henry Hesson will start for Miami (OH) at the Bounce House with Maddox Kopp set to see playing time off the bench. Hesson is a redshirt sophomore with five career pass attempts, none of which have come this season. Kopp, also a redshirt sophomore, is a two-time transfer with slightly more experience, having thrown for 128 yards at Colorado last season.
Whoever is behind center is stepping into an offense that struggled for much of the year. Miami (OH) ranked 108th in EPA per play on offense, 76th in EPA per pass, and 120th in EPA per rush. The most impactful player on Pat Welsh’s offense has been running back Rashad Amos with the South Carolina transfer rushing for 895 yards and 12 touchdowns in his first season in Oxford.
The Mountaineers have the benefit of knowing there will be a green passer leading a Miami (OH) offense that has only been averaging 174.8 passing yards per game, the 19th lowest in the country. That should allow Sloan’s defense to key in on Amos and the running game enough to keep the explosive plays at a minimum.
While one side of this game is going to be ugly — Miami (OH) offense vs. Appalachian State defense — the other side is best on best. The Mountaineers offense has been one of the best in the Group of Five this season under offensive coordinator Frank Ponce.
It sits 24th in EPA per play and 11th in EPA per pass thanks to the emergence of junior college transfer Joey Aguilar. But it’s been an inefficient and inconsistent rushing offense that sits 87th in EPA per rush that just lost starting running back Nate Noel to the transfer portal.
That should allow this mighty Miami (OH) defense to sell out to some extent to slow Aguilar and the passing game just enough to keep the Under in play. It did stunt the Rockets' explosive passing game in the MAC Championship, after all.
Bill Brechin has had the RedHawks defense dominating all season on its way to holding opponents to just 16.2 points per game, seventh in the country, and that number drops to 13.4 against Group of Five teams. Led by MAC Defensive Player of the Year Matthew Salopek, Miami (OH) is 22nd in EPA per play on defense, 23rd in EPA per pass, and 38th in EPA per rush.
Without any experience at quarterback and with its devastating defense, Miami (OH) should continue its trend of low-scoring games. It’s especially encouraging that this is an Appalachian State offense that struggled against Troy — an equally impressive Group of Five defense — in the Sun Belt Championship.
My best bet: Under 44.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State same-game parlay
Under 44.5
Appalachian State -6.5
Rashad Amos Over 84.5 rush yards
Miami (OH) has been built to win slugfests all season, but with the unknowns of Hesson and Kopp at quarterback, it’s going to be a struggle for the RedHawks to put up enough points to cover against an Appalachian State program with one of the best Group of Five passers.
Aguilar is going to be challenged against this RedHawks defense, but he’s been dynamic all season with 35 total touchdowns and should be capable of leading enough scoring drives to win by a touchdown.
On the other side, Miami (OH) is going to need to give Amos a steady dose of carries, even with the Appalachian State defense focusing on stopping the run. The Mountaineers are just 124th in EPA per rush on defense and Amos has gone Over 84.5 rushing in two of his last five games.
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Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State spread and Over/Under analysis
After opening with Appalachian State as 3.5-4.0-point favorites at some books, the line has jumped to between 6.5 and seven in the Mountaineers' favor since Smith hit the portal.
App State has gone 6-6-1 against the spread this season and 4-1 in its last five games. The RedHawks have been one of the best ATS in the country going 10-3, but 3-2 as underdogs.
The total opened as high as 51.5 at some books before Smith entered the portal, but it’s since dropped to 44.5 at most books. App State has been OK hitting the Over this season, going 7-6, but has gone just 4-6 in its last 10. The RedHawks are 5-8 to the Over and 7-2 to the Under in their last nine.
Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State betting trend to know
Appalachian State has only hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 10 games (-2.60 Units / -24% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State.
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Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State game info
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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