The most up-and-down team of this fresh college football campaign returns home this weekend, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish trying to get further removed from their Week 2 upset loss when they host the Miami (OH) RedHawks.
The Irish should certainly snag a second straight win in this game, but my Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame predictions don't expect them to cover this massive 28-point spread. My college football picks are leaning on the road underdog to cover when the teams take the field this afternoon.
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame prediction
My best bet
Miami (OH) +28 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish ran up the score on Purdue a week ago, winning 66-7 on the road. Included in that audacious point tally: a touchdown run from the third-string quarterback, a 70-yard touchdown rush while trying to run out the clock before halftime, and a 34-yard interception return for a touchdown by a reserve defensive lineman.
If trying to forecast future events, it may be more honest to consider that a 45-7 win is still a blowout by all means, but not one deserving as much credit as it has gotten in making numbers of any variety.
In that blowout, the Irish lost two starting offensive linemen in center Ashton Craig and right guard Billy Schrauth. They are replaced by veterans with starting experience, Pat Coogan at center and Rocco Spindler at right guard, but Coogan has never started at center, and that is thus a new fulcrum next to Spindler.
That was all known when this market opened with Notre Dame favored by 27 points on Sunday, the number pushing up to -28.5 at some books. Some advanced metrics would argue this game should be north of -30, so it can be assumed these two injuries have been baked into this spread.
An argument can be made they should have been baked in further when realizing the Irish have had little success throwing the ball this season, very much reliant on the run.
Admittedly, the Miami (OH) RedHawks are outright bad against the run, credited with 24 missed tackles last week against Cincinnati and giving up a run of 40 yards and another of 60 yards, but if those moments are met by linebackers at the line of scrimmage because Coogan and Spindler are not perfectly on point, then Notre Dame’s offense will slow.
Lastly, RedHawks head coach Chuck Martin is universally respected by just about every coach in the country aside from Kalen DeBoer. Martin coached at Notre Dame for four years a decade ago. Irish head coach Marcus Freeman may never have coached against Martin, but he is still unlikely to run up the score against him. That alone makes this four-touchdown spread more feasible for the road underdogs to cover.
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Miami (OH) +27.5
Notre Dame team total Over 34.5
Notre Dame first-half moneyline
Notre Dame moneyline
To be completely honest, that payout was a surprise. This SGP is rather heavily correlated. This payout should not be so high. Hello, value.
The value comes from betting Notre Dame to score yet fail to cover. A 35-7 result fails to get that thought home, given BetMGM skews the spreads within SGPs, but a 35-10 result would be just fine.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame odds
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame live odds
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Spread: Miami (OH) +26.5 | Notre Dame -26.5
- Moneyline: Miami (OH) +2,000 | Notre Dame -10,000
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- The first lines on Sunday set this number at Notre Dame by 27, climbing to -28 on Monday.
- The total opened at 43.5 before climbing momentarily to 44.5, some books clinging to that number and others returning to 43.5.
- Notre Dame has cashed the Under in two of its three games this season, while both Miami (OH) tilts in 2024 went Under their totals.
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
In his 2+ seasons as head coach, Marcus Freeman has gone just 7-6 ATS at home, compared to 12-5 everywhere else. Find more college football betting trends for Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame.
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC/Peacock |
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame latest injuries
Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame weather
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