Coming off a sub-par performance against Rutgers, the Ohio State Buckeyes have managed to retain their No. 1 ranking in the CFP thanks to some dominant defense and Ryan Day’s offense once again finding life in the running game.
Today, they welcome the worst team in the Big Ten East to their home turf as the Michigan State Spartans remain rudderless after Mel Tucker's firing.
Between the Spartans' well-documented offensive woes and the Buckeyes' loaded front seven, Michigan State won’t be hanging too many points, if any, on a cold evening in Columbus.
College football odds don’t see this being much of a game, with Ohio State as 31.5-point favorites in what could be a defensive grudge match.
Find out where my best bets lie in our free college football picks for Michigan State vs. Ohio State on Saturday, November 11.
Michigan State vs Ohio State best odds
Michigan State vs Ohio State picks and predictions
It’s hard to find a worse offense in the Power Five than what the Michigan State Spartans are bringing to the table this season, which is why the Under 47 is in play.
Offensive coordinator Jay Johnson’s unit is scoring just 18.2 points per game, 123rd in the country, and that number comes down to 12.5 when playing Power Five teams.
The Spartans are one of the least efficient offenses in all of college football, ranking 129th in EPA per play, 117th in EPA per pass, and 126th in EPA per rush. They’re averaging only 103 rushing yards per game, 15th least in the country, and 319.1 total yards, ninth least in the Power Five.
Even coming off their first Power Five victory of the year, a 20-17 win over Nebraska, the Spartans don’t look like they’re heading in the right direction on offense. Against the Cornhuskers, Michigan State had just 295 total yards and averaged 2.0 yards per carry.
They’ve also been turnover-prone, averaging over two per game thanks to their quarterbacks combining to throw 10 interceptions this season, tied for 10th most in the Power Five. Current starting quarterback Katin Houser is just a redshirt freshman and has yet to throw for more than 165 yards in a game.
Without any proven playmakers on offense and a propensity for turning the ball over, Michigan State is going to be in for a long day against the buzzsaw that is the Ohio State Buckeyes defense. Under second-year defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, the Buckeyes are holding opponents to only 10.7 points per game, the second-best mark in the nation.
No team has yet to score more than 17 points against the Buckeyes this season and Big Ten teams have scored just 65 total points in six games against them. Knowles' group has been completely shutting offenses down.
They’ve held opponents to only 271.1 total yards per game, fifth least in the country, and 156.7 passing yards per game, fourth least in the country, while giving up only 3.4 yards per carry. It’s one of the most efficient defensive groups in college football, ranking sixth in EPA per play, fifth in EPA per pass, and 20th in EPA per rush.
What makes this group so special is the amount of 2024 NFL Draft talent at each level. On the defensive line, Tyleik Williams, JT Tuimoloau, and Jack Sawyer could all be Top-100 picks and have combined for 16.5 TFLs.
Behind them, the linebacker duo of Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers is one of the best in the country. And then in the secondary, there’s Josh Proctor, Denzel Burke, and Lathan Ransom, who have 18 passes defensed and three interceptions this season.
But what really puts it over the top is the depth. Even with Ransom and Burke listed as questionable for Saturday, Jordan Hancock, Sonny Styles, and Davison Igbinosun have stepped up in their absence and all look like future NFL picks.
That’s only one side of the coin though, for the Under to hit, Michigan State needs to make sure the Buckeyes don’t put on a fireworks display. Despite the uncertainty and poor play in East Lansing, defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton’s group has been respectable.
They’ve held teams to 26.6 points per game and sit 41st in EPA per play, 43rd in EPA per pass, and 40th in EPA per rush. The pass defense has been solid, allowing 222.3 passing yards per game and they’re 35 in the Power Five in total yards allowed per game with 350.9.
The key will be slowing down Marvin Harrison Jr. and forcing Kyle McCord into mistakes. McCord has thrown three interceptions in his last two outings and has led the Buckeyes to just 26.3 points per game over the last three games.
All the Spartans need to do is not give up more than six scores and their offense, and Ohio State’s defense, will do the rest for the Under to hit.
My best bet: Under 47 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Michigan State vs Ohio State same-game parlay
Under 47.5
Michigan State team total Under 9.5
Ohio State team total Under 39.5
With the struggles of the Spartans offense, getting to 10 points seems like a tough task against this Buckeyes defense.
Ohio State has held three opponents, including Purdue, below 10 points this season while Michigan State has scored below 10 in three games. Two of the three came against Maryland and Michigan in the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes defense has been dominant, but their offense hasn’t been as high-flying as years past and this is a solid enough Michigan State defense to hold them below 40.
The Buckeyes have only scored 40+ points twice this season, against the Boilermakers and Western Kentucky.
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Michigan State vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
After opening with the Buckeyes as 29.5-point favorites, the line has continued to shift in their favor. Most books now have Ohio State at -31.5. This is the largest spread for either team this season.
This season, Day’s team has been solid ATS at 5-3-1. They’ve also gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
As bad as the Spartans have been, they’ve still gone 4-4-1 ATS this season. They’re coming off an upset win over Nebraska where the Cornhuskers were -3.
The game total is between 46.5 to 47.5, depending on the book, with most opening at 46.5 and moving slightly.
Ohio State has been one of the worst teams in the country this season when betting the Over. They’re just 2-7 O/U and have gone 5-1 to the Under in Big Ten play this season.
The Spartans have been a far better Over team at 5-4, but have had just two games with a total above 46.5 this season — the Under hit in both. This is the third-highest total of the season for Michigan State.
Michigan State vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Ohio State has only gone Over the total in six of their last 13 games (-1.70 units / -12% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Michigan State vs Ohio State.
Michigan State vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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