As far as weeknight football goes, the Michigan State Spartans heading west to face the Oregon Ducks may not draw an abundance of interest, but that is why we focus on things like an inflated total.
Despite the Ducks maintaining an excellent offense on paper, they also have one crucial weakness that could condemn tonight's total. My Michigan State vs. Oregon predictions will hinge on that thought, along with broad doubt of the Spartans.
Read on as my college football picks for October 4 expect this evening's game to live up to that description.
Michigan State vs Oregon prediction
My best bet
Under 52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
If Oregon has trouble with Michigan State, then the Ducks will have greater issues to worry about. Stranger things have happened, but let’s not engage with that absurd thought.
Instead, focus on two paths to this Under and relish that they are not mutually exclusive.
The most likely scenario is that Oregon simply stymies any and all Michigan State offense. That would hardly be a surprise given the Spartans’ offense is best described as impotent.
Most critically, Michigan State fails to turn quality drives into actual points. The Spartans rank an impressive No. 40 in the country in quality drive rate, turning 50.9% of their possessions into scoring opportunities, per cfb-graphs.
But once in scoring range — the operating definition of a “quality drive” is one that either scores or reaches a 1st-and-10 inside the opposing 40-yard line — Michigan State fails.
The Spartans rank No. 129 in the country in points per quality drive at a mere 2.14. That is not the result of repeated missed field goals; Michigan State veteran kicker Jonathan Kim is 8-of-8 this year. Frankly, the Spartans would probably have more points this season if they turned to Kim on every possession and gave up trying to reach the end zone.
Of Michigan State’s 18 possessions getting inside the opposing 20-yard line, just seven have resulted in touchdowns, No. 126 in the country.
This dichotomy is a best-case scenario for our Under. The Spartans can chew up clocks with long drives and then fail to score any points off them.
The less likely, but still plausible, scenario for this Under focuses on the corresponding Oregon struggle, scoring just 3.45 points per quality drive (81st in the nation), and the only piece of the Ducks’ offense that can be criticized. Furthermore, the Spartans bow up where it matters most, holding opponents to only 2.95 points per quality drive (47th).
One offense or the other, if not both, will squander too many scoring chances for this game to eclipse a reasonable total like 52.5.
Michigan State vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 52.5
Montorie Foster Under 29.5 receiving yards
Oregon -22.5
If Michigan State is going to stall where the field matters most, it will struggle to score more than 13 or 14 points. There is a window where the Ducks cover this spread and the total also falls short.
Expressing such doubt of the Spartans’ passing offense should not have nearly doubled this payout, but the alternate Under on Montorie Foster’s receiving yards indeed did so. He caught just two passes for 17 yards against Ohio State last week. The Buckeyes have a better passing defense than Oregon, but not by much.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan State vs Oregon odds
Michigan State vs Oregon live odds
Michigan State vs Oregon opening odds
- Michigan State vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -24.5
- Michigan State vs. Oregon moneyline: Michigan State +1,100; Oregon -2,500
- Michigan State vs. Oregon Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Michigan State vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis
- The first line to hit the market on Sunday posted Oregon as a 23-point favorite, a number somewhat surprisingly bet up to -24.5 that afternoon. It took until midweek for the board to reflect this, returning across the key number of -24 back to -23.5.
- Grabbing this Under at 52.5 feels particularly helpful this week since the number opened at 49.5 and jumped to 52 later on Sunday, holding steady at 52.5 through much of the week.
- Key numbers matter in totals and are often overlooked; 53 is not necessarily a key number, so do not stress that some sportsbooks are pushing to 53.5 late in the week.
Michigan State vs Oregon betting trend to know
Four of Michigan State’s five games this season have gone Under their totals by an average of 9.75 points. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan State vs Oregon.
Michigan State vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Friday, 10-4, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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