Mississippi vs LSU Player Props & Best Bets: Parrish Stays in Shadows in Death Valley

Prop bet #1: Tre Harris Over 91.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

Friday night delivered the news that Mississippi Rebels fans had been waiting to hear all week, as Tre Harris was upgraded to “probable” according to multiple sources. The availability of the nation’s leading receiver is a game-changer for the Rebels.

Through six games, Harris has already caught 52 passes for 885 yards, with a catch of 48+ yards in four of those contests. Prior to leaving the game early against South Carolina due to injury, he had topped the century mark four times with at least 94 receiving yards in each game.

And while he may not be at 100%, he will still be a serious problem for this LSU Tigers secondary. The Tigers are allowing 8.4 yards per pass, one of the worst marks in the SEC. Opponents have already completed 50 passes of 10+ yards against the Tigers, and Harris gained 153 yards on eight catches in this game last season. 

In addition, Mississippi will find it tough to run the ball. The Tigers are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, with a defense that does a great job of creating Havoc up front. This could put Mississippi in quite a few passing situations, and I expect Jaxson Dart to look for his favorite weapon when pressured.

Harris is the top-rated receiver in the nation according to PFF, and every single LSU secondary defender is rated in the bottom half at their positions. The shortened South Carolina game notwithstanding, Harris has been targeted at least 10 times in all four games vs. FBS opponents.

He’s posted an average depth of target of 11+ yards in his last three games, and notched at least five yards per route run in every game except the Wake Forest contest. Harris will feast on this LSU secondary, a unit which let Southern Cal receiver Kyron Hudson post a season-high 83 receiving yards and conceded 91 yards to South Alabama’s top receiver two weeks ago.

The total for Harris’ receiving yards has gone up since the news broke, and I’d play anything up to 95 yards. Right now it sits at 91.5 yards, and that’s a number I expect him to clear.

Prop bet #2: Garrett Nussmeier Over 309.5 passing yards

-115 at BetMGM

As a Kentucky fan, I watched the Mississippi secondary get caught out position repeatedly when the Wildcats pulled off their upset a few weeks ago. The Rebels were flagged multiple times for defensive holding and pass interference, including three times on a key drive late in the first half that led to a Kentucky touchdown.

While the Rebels have solid metrics against the pass, it’s mostly because they’ve yet to face a really good passing attack. Brock Vandagriff threw for 243 yards in that game, which is eye opening considering he had a total of 144 yards in the previous two games against Georgia and South Carolina. 

Nussmeier won’t just eclipse that number, he should shatter it. This will easily be the best passing attack the Rebels have encountered in 2024, led by a quarterback with a 4.3% big time throw rate according to PFF.

Against South Carolina’s outstanding pass rush, Nussmeier stood in the pocket and delivered on 24 of 41 attempts for 285 yards. That was his “worst” game of the season, averaging only seven yards per attempt. In his other four games, he’s thrown for at least 302 yards, with a 15-4 TD/INT ratio. 

Nussmeier threw for 304 yards against Southern Cal, a defense that hasn’t allowed a passer to top 200 yards in their other games this year. He’s facing an Mississippi secondary allowing quarterbacks to complete 62.5% of their throws, and stands behind an offensive line that has been protecting him all season.

This game is likely to be a high-scoring affair, and Mississippi is allowing just 1.9 yards per carry. The Tigers will turn to Nussmeier early and often, and I expect him to target Rebel cornerback Brandon Turnage en route to a huge day. 

Prop bet #3: Henry Parrish Jr. Under 79.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

When LSU lost to USC to open the season, it held the Trojans to just 69 rushing yards on 23 carries. Woody Marks gained 68 of those yards on 16 carries, as the Tigers became one of only two opponents this season — Wisconsin being the other — to hold him below the century mark.

I’m expecting the Tigers to have similar success against Henry Parrish Jr. While he ran for more than 300 yards in the first two games of the season, Parrish has found things more difficult upon entering SEC play. He gained 81 yards on 21 carries last week, and Kentucky held him to 62 yards on 13 rushing attempts in a game where he got beat up. 

While LSU may be exploitable through the air, the run defense has been terrific. LSU has allowed just 16 runs of 10+ yards this season, tied for 26th-fewest against FBS opponents. And only four of those runs have gone for 20 yards. 

The Rebels have 38 chunk runs this season, sixth-most among all teams against FBS competition. And while Parrish is responsible for 21 of those runs, 13 of them came against Middle Tennessee State and Wake Forest. He’s managed only two such carries in his last two outings.

Parrish has forced only 13 missed tackles in six games, and the Tigers are a Top 30 tackling unit led by linebacker Greg Penn III. LSU’s allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, and its front seven has one of the top Havoc rates in the SEC. 

Mississippi and Dart will find big chunks through the air against the Tigers, but I don’t expect Parrish to enjoy that same kind of success. He looked a half-step slow against South Carolina last week, posting by far his lowest breakaway rate of the season, and I expect him to be held below the 80-yard mark.