Get ready for a Black Friday afternoon AAC clash when the Navy Midshipmen set sail for Greenville, North Carolina for a matchup with the East Carolina Pirates.
Uncertainty surrounds injured Navy quarterback Blake Horvath, but my Navy vs. East Carolina predictions expect the star QB to suit up and show out.
Read on as I explain why my college football picks see Navy pulling off an upset on Friday, November 29.
Navy vs East Carolina prediction and best bet
My best bet
Navy moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Navy Midshipmen opened as a 1.5-point favorite. The line completely reversed with news that Navy quarterback Blake Horvath may miss this game due to a Week 12 rib injury that caused him to miss most of his game against Tulane.
Horvath is an important cog in the Navy weaponry and the main man for this offense. The Midshipmen were blanked at home by Tulane and will be toast if he doesn't dress for this game, but what if he plays?
Navy's coming off a bye week and can win 10 games for the first time since 2019 if the Midshipmen run the table.
Horvath brings much to the table. He’s scampered for 895 yards and 13 touchdowns, but unlike most Navy signal-callers, Horvath runs the RPO and has thrown for 1,154 yards with 11 scoring strikes.
The East Carolina Pirates defense won’t be able to handle the triple-option with the RPO wrinkle Horvath brings. East Carolina has been decent defending against the rush and the pass, but the total package might overwhelm the Pirates.
With or without Horvath, the Middies must stop East Carolina running back Rahji Harris and the arm of sophomore QB Kaiten Houser. Harris has scampered for 858 rushing yards, while Houser has 1,684 passing yards with 16 scoring strikes.
The Pirates have sunk seven ships this season, but the Navy won’t be one of them. This Middies defense does a serviceable job against the rush and the pass, allowing 23 points per game with the ninth-best red-zone defense in the nation.
The Navy defense will do its job, and Horvath will do his. He hasn’t been ruled out yet, and he’s had two weeks to get well. He’ll help lead the Midshipmen to victory.
Navy vs East Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
Navy moneyline
Navy team total Over 21.5 points
East Carolina team total Over 21.5 points
Over 56.5
I like Navy to win outright, but I expect to see some Black Friday points on the board.
They'll score enough to send this contest Over the number. Both teams play predominantly to the Over; Navy is 7-3 O/U across its past 10, while East Carolina is 6-4 O/U over its last 10.
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Navy vs East Carolina odds
Navy vs East Carolina live odds
Navy vs East Carolina opening odds
- Navy vs. East Carolina spread: East Carolina +1.5
- Navy vs. East Carolina moneyline: Navy -115, East Carolina -105
- Navy vs. East Carolina Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Navy vs East Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
- Navy opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but Horvath’s uncertainty caused the line to reverse to high as +2.5.
- Navy is 9-1 ATS across its past 10 against East Carolina. The Pirates last covered the spread against Navy on October 22, 2011.
- The Over/Under record between Navy vs. East Carolina is 6-3-1 to the Over across their last 10 games.
Navy vs East Carolina betting trend to know
Navy is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings with East Carolina. Find more college football betting trends for Navy vs East Carolina.
Navy vs East Carolina game info
| Location: | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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