North Carolina vs Minnesota NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Run Game Bleeds the Clock

The 2024 college football season will kick off in earnest tonight with the Minnesota Golden Gophers hosting the North Carolina Tar Heels. Those might not be the most legendary helmets in the sport, but this game provides a pile of gambling intrigue.

My North Carolina vs. Minnesota predictions will try to sort through this tight and active spread as I offer free college football picks for Thursday, August 29.

North Carolina vs Minnesota prediction

My best bet
Under 50.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis
This is not a bet based on weather, but let’s get that out of the way first: Thunderstorms are expected in Minneapolis throughout Thursday night, bringing with them winds approaching 15 miles per hour. That tends to be the threshold in which wind impacts a football game, so that is of particular note.

So is the fact that these are thunderstorms. There is a distinct chance this season opener, one with plenty of hype on FOX, could be delayed and/or interrupted. Figuring out which coaching staff would handle that better is a fool’s errand, but it would likely give the two defensive staffs a chance to adjust to what the offense has shown to that point.

But move beyond the weather and focus on two facts. These do not require meteorologists’ guesses. These are facts.

First of all, Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck prefers to run the ball. The Gophers ranked No. 12 in the country in the 2023 regular season in rushing more often than expected given game state, doing so 8.7% more often than the average team would.

Now Minnesota returns four starting offensive linemen as well as its best running back Darius Taylor, hopefully now healthy after injuries cut short his freshman season. But in case Taylor is indeed injured as rumored, Fleck also added Ohio running back Sieh Bangura, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season. The Gophers will gladly run the ball to start their season.

Your second fact, North Carolina improved its defense. Mack Brown finally fired defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, about two years too late into his two-year stint in Chapel Hill. Chizik’s 2023 defense ranked No. 91 in the country in expected points added, meaning opposing offenses gained an average of 0.094 expected points every time they snapped the ball. The Tar Heels just let them move closer to the end zone.

Former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins preaches a simpler playbook, one that should cut loose seven returning defensive starters, specifically a pair of worrying defensive ends.

A run-heavy Minnesota offense going against a bettered North Carolina defense should knock this game below bookmakers’ expectations of 50.5 points, with or without rain. The degree of each of those dynamics has simply not been properly recognized yet, a week-one blessing.

North Carolina vs Minnesota same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 50.5 points

Minnesota moneyline

Sieh Bangura any time touchdown

+700 at BetMGM

This spread spent the summer with Minnesota favored by 2.5 points. On Sunday, it began to move and move quickly, eventually jumping the fence to make the Gophers +1.5. Why?

This is not a game with massive public interest, so it is difficult to fault late arrivals for the move. With that in mind, injury worries gain credibility. Darius Taylor left practice limping in mid-August, and speculation also frets over leading receiver Daniel Jackson.

The line move makes those look like genuine injuries. Well, that supports our Under thoughts, but it also may be an overreaction. No matter how good Taylor was in four games as a freshman, how many running backs should move a line through zero? How about second-team All-Big Ten receivers? These injury rumors, whether true or not, have created moneyline value on Minnesota.

And they have also, naturally, led to logic suggesting an anytime touchdown bet on Bangura.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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North Carolina vs Minnesota odds

North Carolina vs Minnesota live odds

North Carolina vs Minnesota opening odds

• Spread: North Carolina +2.5 (-105) | Minnesota -2.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: North Carolina +115 | Minnesota -138
• Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5

North Carolina vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis

• The curious aspect of this spread move possibly tied to Taylor’s injury is that he was first seen limping on August 13, but this spread did not move until August 25.
• This total fell two points early in the week, to 49.5 from 51.5, before rallying and sticking at 50.5 that night.
• The Gophers fell short of their first three totals last season before their defense started to give way to injuries.

North Carolina vs Minnesota betting trend to know

P.J. Fleck has gone 5-1 outright in home openers as Minnesota’s head coach, excluding the delayed 2020 start, but including a 13-10 win against Nebraska exactly 52 weeks ago. The one loss was to 2021 Ohio State, which went 11-2 and won the Rose Bowl. Find more college football betting trends for North Carolina vs Minnesota.

North Carolina vs Minnesota game info

North Carolina vs Minnesota latest injuries

North Carolina vs Minnesota weather

Forecasters are calling for 73 degree temperatures at game time with a 35% chance of rain. Wind gusts of 14 miles per hour are expected. Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

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