A year ago, the Stanford Cardinal handed Marcus Freeman the most problematic loss of his debut season leading the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It defied comprehension, the Irish falling 16-14 at home to a hapless team in David Shaw’s final season.
Few teams would look at Stanford in the 2020s and want revenge, but Notre Dame is that team this weekend, a chance to not only beat the Cardinal as heavy college football odds favorites, but also to send off the Pac-12 Network with one more conference loss.
Look for the Irish to pour it on early and often in our free college football picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Stanford on November 25, with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Notre Dame vs Stanford best odds
Notre Dame vs Stanford picks and predictions
Notre Dame’s offense has had its ups and downs this season, last week against Wake Forest being a distinct up. Most notably, three Irish freshmen receivers caught 15 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns.
Notre Dame has been plagued by a lack of receivers for a couple years now, both in quantity and quality. One of those freshmen, Jaden Greathouse had a strong September before a balky hamstring bothered him for six games. He finally looked fresh again against the Demon Deacons, coming off an idle week.
Another, Rico Flores Jr. has been improving for weeks, and his 102 yards were the first time an Irish receiver reached triple digits since the 2021 season. And the third, Jordan Faison began the season as a football walk-on, officially on a partial lacrosse scholarship until he took a snap on a Saturday.
Between Greathouse’s injury and Flores’s and Faison’s learning curves, their needing 10 games to star made some sense. But now, they’ve arrived.
And they will get ample usage against Stanford, one of the worst passing defenses in the country, if not the worst.
The Cardinal rank No. 130 in the country in passer rating against, directly behind Baylor, Nevada, and UMass. It rises to No. 121 in yards per pass attempt against, giving up 8.4 yards for each throw.
As a result, teams throw against Stanford as often as they can. No defense faces more dropbacks when considering expectations in a given game state, facing 10.5% more passes than the average defense would.
In other words, Notre Dame may have found a passing groove just in time to face the defense more vulnerable against the pass than anyone else in the country. With Hartman just three touchdowns short of reaching No. 3 all-time in NCAA history in passing touchdowns, the timing could not be much better for the Irish.
My best bet: Notre Dame team total Over 37.5 points (-128 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Notre Dame vs Stanford same-game parlay
Notre Dame team total Over 37.5 points
Stanford first half +14.5
Over 49.5 points
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Cardinal head coach Troy Taylor employs an unusual offense, sometimes playing two quarterbacks at the same time. That’s right, you read that correctly, Stanford has ventured into the mythical two-quarterback system.
It’s chaotic enough to think Notre Dame may struggle to completely shut it down in the first half, and if the Cardinal reach the end zone once before halftime, it should cover this two-touchdown first-half spread.
The Irish have made it a habit lately to pour on the points in the second half, defensive adjustments stymying the opposing offense and giving Hartman repeated chances. Notre Dame should run up the score on Saturday — junior running back Audric Estimé is also three rushing touchdowns away from tying the school single-season record — but those lopsided stretches have consistently come after halftime for the Irish.
They’ve averaged 19.3 first-half points in their last three wins, then averaging 31 points in the second half.
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Notre Dame vs Stanford spread and Over/Under analysis
Notre Dame opened as merely a 23-point favorite, but this spread reached -24.5 before Sunday ended and -26.5 on Monday, then settling at -26 at most books for most of the week.
The Irish are 4-1 against the spread as favorites of at least three possessions, while Stanford is 1-4 ATS as an underdog of at least three possessions.
The total reached the market at 51.5, falling to 50.5 or 49.5, depending on your sportsbook, on Thursday.
Notre Dame vs Stanford betting trend to know
Notre Dame has averaged 44.5 points in its eight wins this season. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Stanford.
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Notre Dame vs Stanford game info
| Location: | Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PAC12 |
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