Two teams with aspirations of making the expanded College Football Playoff will get an early test in Week 1 as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish visit the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday night.
Notre Dame are underdogs in the college football odds against the Aggies, but that won't deter my Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M predictions from backing the visitors.
Join me as I break down the early lines and give early college football picks for Saturday, August 31.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M predictions
Early spread lean
Notre Dame + 3 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Of these two teams, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were clearly the more successful in 2023. Notre Dame had big wins over the likes of the USC Trojans and the Oregon State Beavers in the Sun Bowl, part of a season that included three wins over ranked teams. While Texas A&M never really got blown out by its SEC competition, it did go 0-5 against ranked competition, a poor sign heading into a new year against a vaunted opponent.
That’s not to say that there’s no reason for optimism from the Aggies. Texas A&M brings back most of a defensive front that was able to generate consistent pressure last year and will be facing a Notre Dame front that has very little experience — and even less when it comes to playing together as a unit.
Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman looked good in limited work during his first two years and is now ready to run with the starting role in 2024. Junior receiver Noah Thomas is also looking to have a breakout junior season after scoring five times last year and should be Weigman’s primary target.
But it’s questionable whether Texas A&M has done enough to truly catch up with Notre Dame in terms of overall talent. On defense, the Irish have NFL-level talent, particularly in their secondary, something that could give Weigman fits at the start of the season. On offense, Notre Dame is counting on Duke transfer Riley Leonard to take the snaps, with the senior offering a dual-thread from the quarterback position.
Leonard has rushed for 19 touchdowns while throwing for 24 in his college career.
I’m not convinced Texas A&M should be the favorite here, and neither are most predictive systems – although those shouldn’t be trusted as gospel before we’ve even seen these teams play a single game. Still, my early inclination is to take Notre Dame and the points.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 46.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Texas A&M has spent most of its recent history as an offense-first team, and Notre Dame hasn’t exactly shied away from shootouts, either. Yet the bookmakers have set a middling total of just 46.5 points for Saturday’s game.
There are reasons to question how effective these offenses will be out of the gate. Both teams are dealing with revamped offensive lines that are going up against more talent on the defensive front, which is not a recipe for success in Week 1 when quarterbacks and other skill position players can use an extra beat or two to feel confident in their execution.
I expect that to lead to a sluggish start for both sides as they feel their way into the game. However, that issue could quickly be overshadowed by another factor: the uncomfortable conditions expected for this game.
The weather in College Station is expected to be hot and humid on Saturday, with a high of 92 degrees. While this is a night game ad that should take a few ticks off the thermometer as the game goes on, it also looks like the humidity will be high, making this a tough test for both squads, who will be practicing in similar conditions all week thanks to the heat wave hitting the Midwest.
Those conditions tend to wear on defenses. It’s hard to say whether that or the line disparity will be a bigger factor, but if we assume they’ll roughly balance each other out, there’s a clear lean here. Notre Dame and Texas A&M each went Over this total in 10 of their 13 games last year, and I see no reason to bet against that trend.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M live odds
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