College Football Picks

As is always the case with any team coached by Rich Rodriguez, the Gamecocks like to run the ball, doing so 10.7% more often than the average team would in a given game state, the 26th-highest rate in the country. That approach excels in monotony, Jacksonville State ranking No. 18 in the country in rushing success rate, staying ahead of the chains on 47.3% of rush attempts. And that is Sam Houston State’s greatest defensive weakness, ranking No. 88 in the country. The Gamecocks will run the ball and then run it again. Every time they do that twice in a row, they should get a first down. And that kind of strength will be enough to assure they cover this touchdown spread.

This will be Florida’s fourth straight game against a ranked opponent and the fifth of its last sixth, with four of those opponents being ranked in the Top 10. The other three games against the Top 10 teams were all losses by six, 14, and 32 points. This one will likely be a fourth loss and by double digits. The Rebels have a deadly passing attack with Jaxson Dart and four wide receivers who can hit it big on any given play. Mississippi ranks second in the country in passing offense and the Gators are missing four defensive backs with injury and rank 93rd in the country in passing defense. 

Wake Forest has hit the game total Over in seven of its last 12 game, and for as bad the team is this season, the offense has had a few moments. Wake is just 83rd in SP+, but its offense is 59th and has scored 23-plus points in eight of 10 games. The Demon Deacons have a few playmakers for Hank Bachmeier to lean on too in running back Demond Claiborne and wide receiver Taylor Morin. Those three have Wake ranked Top 80 in both EPA per rush and dropback. Wake is capable of doing enough on offense for Over bettors with Miami set to do the heavy lifting in one of the most lopsided matchups of the season in the ACC. The Hurricanes are the No. 1 offense by SP+ and are averaging the most points per game in the country this season (45.0). They’ve scored 36-plus points in nine of 10 games and 40-plus in six of them.

Losing your starting center when you already have some concerns at left tackle due to injury could provide a hitch in your offense. That said, this total did not move amid those line moves. It remained at 52.5. A move by more than a field goal in the spread because of one particular thought should have also influenced the total. Doubting Ohio State’s offense would not impact the other side of the ball, and what Michigan did in holding Indiana to 20 points last week, Ohio State will exacerbate much further. This newfound wonder about the Buckeyes’ offense appears to have impacted the spread. It also should have cut into the total. Since it didn’t, let’s embrace that value.

Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings has been efficient in the passing game, completing 65.4% of his passes for 15 touchdowns on the year. Even if SMU doesn’t tilt toward the passing game on Saturday, Jennings will throw the ball at least 25 times, if not more, and he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four starts. Of his many targets, I like Jordan Hudson the most. The wide receiver has four scores on the year, tied for the most in the passing game with Keyshawn Smith and tight end R.J. Maryland. But with Maryland out for the year, that should mean more opportunities for the receivers, and Hudson gives us the better payout in this game.

Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings has been efficient in the passing game, completing 65.4% of his passes for 15 touchdowns on the year. Even if SMU doesn’t tilt toward the passing game on Saturday, Jennings will throw the ball at least 25 times, if not more, and he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four starts. Of his many targets, I like Jordan Hudson the most. The wide receiver has four scores on the year, tied for the most in the passing game with Keyshawn Smith and tight end R.J. Maryland. But with Maryland out for the year, that should mean more opportunities for the receivers, and Hudson gives us the better payout in this game.

There are plenty of likely targets you can bet on in the Hurricanes offense, but Damien Martinez and Xavier Restrepo aren’t going to give us much of a return on our investment. Instead, I’m going to target secondary back Mark Fletcher Jr. as my pick. With 81 carries on the year, Fletcher gets plenty of opportunities to spell Martinez and make his own contributions to the Miami offense. This is particularly apparent when the offense is rolling and the Hurricanes look to spread the ball around a bit more. Fletcher has three touchdowns in his last five games, and he’s a great pick to find the endzone again on Saturday.

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks’ defense has looked like Swiss cheese the past two games, and a repeat performance on Saturday could see the Gamecocks lose their first Conference USA game this season. And while Jacksonville State leads all C-USA teams in yards per carry, it’s facing a Bearkat defense allowing conference opponents to average just 3.08 yards per attempt. Sam Houston State also averages over six tackles for loss per conference outing, and ranks 29th defensively in EPA/pass. Sam Houston State doesn’t turn the ball over, doesn’t commit many penalties, and plays keep-away with the ball. If the Gamecocks can’t stop the run, their margin for error is small. The Bearkats may only need one stop to give themselves enough edge to pull off the upset and take control of their C-USA destiny.

Elijhah Badger has been one of the most explosive WRs in the country. He averaged 23.0 yards per reception and has superb underlying analytics, averaging 3.54 yards per route run (second in SEC) while earning an 83.4 receiving grade (fifth in SEC). The Gators face a tough Mississippi defense in Week 13, but that doesn’t scare me off this prop because the Rebels have a game-wrecking defensive front and they simply don’t allow you to run the ball, meaning Florida will lean on the passing game and Badger's receiving prowess.

Will Howard may not be exactly what you think of when someone talks about a dual-threat quarterback. But the Ohio State signal caller knows the exact right time to use his legs. Howard enters this game with a ho-hum 128 rushing yards on the season but has found the end zone on the ground six times. With Indiana’s defense likely preoccupied with slowing down the likes of Jerimiah Smith on the outside and both of the Buckeyes’ running backs, there is a chance that they may forget about the mobility of Howard.

Rourke is a big reason the Hoosiers enter this game with a perfect 10-0. The Ohio Bobcats transfer has thrown for 2,410 yards with 21 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions. Rourke managed just 208 yards on 17-28 passing in the win against Michigan. But he did what this team does: He battled, including tossing two touchdown passes. Rourke has thrown two or more touchdown passes in six of his nine games played this season. At this price I like backing him to make it seven of 10.

Henderson has been the more consistent of the two Buckeyes backs. He has totaled 662 rushing yards on a big 7.4 yards per carry this season, which is notably more than Judkins’ 6.0 yards per attempt. Henderson also has rushed for at least 54 yards in nine of Ohio State’s 10 games this season. While Indiana has a solid run defense, you can make the case they haven’t faced a back as good as either one of the guys the Buckeyes hand the ball to. Not that a good run defense will worry Henderson. He put up 61 yards against Iowa, 87 against Oregon, and 54 against Penn State. 

Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez is about to reaffirm why he was hired. If the Gamecocks win this weekend, they will be locked into the Conference USA title game. Sam Houston State has those same hopes, but the Bearkats still need help. Struggling to blow out coach-less Kennesaw State showed Sam Houston State’s deficiencies, and with these stakes at hand, Jacksonville State should take advantage of those deficiencies in a ground-bound game. Expect the Gamecocks to control this game flow, enough so as to win by at least a touchdown.

Kennesaw State does not have the roster depth to withstand the last couple weeks of this month, not after nearly 20 players already entered the transfer portal after head coach Brian Bohannon’s abrupt and debated firing. The Owls’ survived the loss of three starting offensive lineman and three of their top-four receivers for a week against Sam Houston State, but do not expect that to further. Be logical. FIU will have the two best units on the field, and that should be enough against such an adrift Kennesaw State.

Kentucky runs the ball 10.8% more often than an average team would in a given game state, doing so methodically and thus shortening games. The Wildcats defense is more of the same, allowing opponents repeated modest successes while limiting explosive plays. Hefty favorites tend to agree to those terms against Kentucky. The Wildcats are 3-0 ATS as underdogs of +15.5 or more this season, 5-0 since 2021 and 9-2-1 since 2016.

When Kenny Guiton took over as Arkansas's interim OC last year, he emphasized the run game, nearly doubling its weekly output in SEC play. Wisconsin's offense needs that same emphasis, especially given Badgers' fans' disdain for the "Dairy Raid" of late. Guiton will emphasize the run game in his second interim gig in two years, and that should show up most in freshman RB Darrion Dupree, who has cleared this prop in three of the last four games. He has been averaging 8.2 carries in his last five games. Any further uptick could make him a distinct contributor.

There is too much hype around the Jayhawks right now. Far too much hype. And, somehow, not enough around Colorado. The Buffaloes will have the two best players on the field on Saturday, as well as arguably the two best units. They have far more at stake, and Deion Sanders will certainly emphasize that to get his team rallied for this road game. Some might tell you Kansas is playing better than anyone else in the Big 12 right now. They’d be wrong. Colorado is. So to get this number at less than a field goal is a wonderful gift.

First-year offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes’ unit ranks 19th in both EPA per play and success rate, and Kansas has reached 400 yards of total offense in four of its last five matchups. While the Colorado Buffaloes have been superb defensively (25th in EPA per play, 28th in success rate), they will be at a slight disadvantage on that side of the ball. They’re allowing too many big plays (94th in explosiveness), especially on the ground (96th in rushing explosiveness). That’s a concern against Devin Neal and Jalon Daniels, who are two of the most prolific rushers in college football. This is a close matchup on paper, so I’m inclined to grab the home underdog catching three points. The Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and I’m inclined to believe there’s still value in the market.

This total comes in a few points lower than expected, so I’ll bite and snap up the Over. BYU has been an Over team all year at 7-3 O/U while Arizona State is 3-1-1 O/U at home — and there’s a lot to like about both offenses. The Cougars average 31.6 points per game and get strong quarterback play out of Jake Retzlaff. The running back room hasn’t been healthy all year — but it is now with LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati providing a nice one-two punch — and receivers Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter have combined for 1,235 yards with eight touchdowns. 

The last five times Kentucky has been an underdog of at least 15.5 points, the Under has cashed four times. In the dozen total instances since 2016, the Under has cashed eight times. And when those Unders come home, they do so by plenty, falling short of their respective totals by an average of 18.25 points. Kentucky drags top opponents into the mud, shortening the game by removing explosive plays both offensively and defensively. As aggressive as Texas’s offense is, Steve Sarkisian is not going to show anything new for Texas A&M to study.

The last five times Kentucky has been an underdog of at least 15.5 points, the Under has cashed four times. In the dozen total instances since 2016, the Under has cashed eight times. And when those Unders come home, they do so by plenty, falling short of their respective totals by an average of 18.25 points. Kentucky drags top opponents into the mud, shortening the game by removing explosive plays both offensively and defensively. As aggressive as Texas’s offense is, Steve Sarkisian is not going to show anything new for Texas A&M to study.

Tyson is the second-leading touchdown scorer for Arizona State, trailing only running back Cam Skattebo. Boasting scores in three straight games, Tyson is the only consistent target in the passing game for the Sun Devils. His 58 receptions are more than double anyone outside of Skattebo, and his 833 yards account for nearly 40% of the total yardage in the passing game. Although BYU plays well on defense and has held opposing quarterbacks to just a 99.0 rating and a 53% completion percentage, Tyson is the one player who can overcome the Cougars' secondary and breakthrough for a score.

Both teams are terrible at converting in the red zone as the Badgers rank 98th in red-zone scoring percentage and the Cornhuskers rank 126th. Nebraska also has serious issues with special teams as it's allowed five blocked field goals and three blocked punts. It has also only converted six of 18 fourth down attempts, meaning Nebraska turns the ball over on downs a ton. 

Cameron Skattebo is averaging 119.3 rushing yards per game, so his line of 88+ rushing yards is a significant discount. He returned from a sprained shoulder a week ago and handled 29 carries, there’s no concern about his workload or availability, which makes this a clear buy spot.

Despite winning just one of its last seven contests, the Central Florida Knights roll into Morgantown as favorites against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Granted, three of those defeats have been by less than a touchdown, but eventually you’ve got to find a way to win close. West Virginia has done that. The Mountaineers went on the road and beat that same Arizona team a few weeks ago, and followed it up with a touchdown win on the road over rival Cincinnati. Garrett Greene showed against Kansas that he’s capable of leading a winning drive, and that edge will be the difference in front of a rowdy Senior Day crowd with bowl eligibility on the line. 

Jacoby Jones has long been an analytics darling and he’s handled the move to the Big 12 with aplomb, ranking sixth in the conference in yards per route run (2.62) and 10th in receiving grade (80.1) per PFF. I’m a believer in his talent and the value of his prop, so sign me up for the Over.

It's hard to trust Louisville to put together a complete effort for 60 minutes and cover a touchdown-plus spread against anyone in the conference, let alone a Pittsburgh team that has been competitive with the best in the ACC. Louisville ranks 72nd in the defensive in EPA per rush. That's not terrible, but it's not good. However, I'd suspect it will be an issue against what has been a Top 10 rushing offense led by Desmond Reid, who is averaging over five yards per carry. His versatile running style also fits the profile of backs that the Cardinals have needed help slowing down. For me, that's enough to make Pittsburgh a play here. 

The Panthers and Desmond Reid rank 10th in EPA/rush, despite sitting 56th in success rate. But they’re facing a Louisville defense ranked 70th in success rate against the run, 72nd in EPA/rush, and 77th in early down EPA/play. More importantly, the Louisville defense has been allowing big plays throughout the season. This is especially true in the passing game, with teams posting a 1.63 EPA on successful passes. Louisville have allowed 14 completions of 30+ yards, the second-most of any team in ACC play, and their 10 throws allowed of 40+ yards are the most allowed to conference opponents.

Army works a methodical approach, ranking No. 2 in the country in success rate by staying ahead of the chains on 51.5% of its snaps. But Notre Dame ranks No. 2 in the country in defensive success rate, setting opponents off pace on 65.6% of snaps. Knocking Army off schedule just once should short circuit an entire possession. And on the other side of the ball, the Irish should not flinch at any point, not with a significant advantage along its offensive line and a stable of dynamic running backs.

Since Kyron Drones's foot injury, Virignia Tech has gone 0-2 outright and 0-2 ATS, Drones missing one game and needing to find the sideline in the other. He reportedly spent much of Wednesday's practice getting treatment, a sign that he is, at best, still far from healthy. And Duke is not a good defense to face with one hand tied behind your back. The Blue Devils are 6-3-1 ATS this season, going 4-0-1 ATS as underdogs and 3-2 outright in those moments. When Duke is a short underdog of one possession, it is 3-0 outright this season.

Kansas State blew a relatively genuine Playoff shot by faceplanting against Arizona State, and that should yield a letdown this week. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 5-5 and needs one more win to notch a bowl game in head coach Scott Satterfield’s second season. Given those trendlines and stakes, the Bearcats are too viable to be seen as two-score underdogs. They are not great, not by any means, but Cincinnati is more than decent this year. A stellar run defense should stymie Kansas State, who prefers to run the ball 5.6% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. That thought alone should keep this within one possession.

Raise your hand if you have yet to beat a quarterback still considered a starter? Oh, Virginia Tech, your hand is up? Look, no one has bought in harder on the Kyren Drones resurgence than yours truly, but it has only camouflaged the Hokies’ defensive graces. Against Duke, with a stout defense, Drones will not be the band-aid he has been. The Blue Devils have a higher floor than they are given credit for, and that creates value in betting on the short home underdog.

The Trojans may find running room a bit difficult to come by against a UCLA defense that has held every opponent other than Oregon to no more than 135 rushing yards. The Bruins are allowing just 3.3 yards per rush on the year despite facing plenty of elite-level competition. USC will test that, but it may not find many chunk plays against the nation’s third-best defense in terms of the rushing explosives allowed. That means the clock should be moving throughout the game. UCLA’s secondary has some holes, ranking 127th in passing success rate. It’s possible that the Trojans find yardage in the air given the of a pass rush they’ll be facing, but that’s also not a sure thing given the rain and that sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava is mistake prone and didn’t beat out a struggling Miller Moss this offseason.