Let’s be very clear: Three of the following five college football picks are plus-money bets. None of them are massive odds, but they are still all +100 or better.
This is not an attempt at making back a frustrating deficit all in one week. That would be bad process. Last week’s 2-2 showing cost us a tenth of a unit, knocking the season tally down to 13-17 and -4.08 units. That frustration should never influence a week’s betting choices when making college football best bets.
No, these are simply three spots of value that happen to be in in the same week. And the entire want here is to emphasize value whenever it is available. So let’s discuss some Week 8 value in my college football predictions.
College football predictions for Week 8
- Georgia 1H moneyline (+152)
- UConn -1.5 (-105)
- UNLV team total Over 34.5 (+100)
- New Mexico -1.5 (-110)
- Colorado moneyline (+120)
Picks made on 10-17. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
College football Week 8 predictions
Georgia 1H moneyline at Texas
Best odds: +152 at FanDuel
By no means should anyone doubt the Georgia Bulldogs' chances in the College Football Playoff odds. The Bulldogs are currently listed at -500 to make the Playoff at BetMGM, the fifth-best odds of any program. Just because it is relevant here, let’s also note that the Texas Longhorns lead the way at -2,000.
But a loss to the Longhorns would put Georgia on the brink. Only one season since 2014 would have featured a three-loss team making a 12-team Playoff, so any team with a second loss needs to then find a heightened sense of urgency. The Bulldogs taking a second loss this weekend with both Mississippi and Tennessee yet on the schedule would be cause for Kirby Smart to worry.
Furthermore, a second loss in SEC play should be considered a death knell to any conference title hopes and thus any chances of enjoying a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff Bracket. Eight teams in the SEC currently have no more than one loss in conference play. At least two should get to the end of the season with that still being the case.
All of which is to say, Georgia should come out of the gates running in Austin this weekend.
The Bulldogs' offense has found a groove since halftime against Alabama. Georgia is rushing less often but also rushing significantly better. Putting more on Carson Beck’s arm makes sense. He is an NFL-caliber talent, and Smart needs to see how far the Bulldogs can go with Beck leading the way.
Most notably, in the first two FBS games of the season, Georgia averaged 3.12 points per quality drive. In the three FBS games since, Georgia has averaged 5.3 points per quality drive.
Georgia is running less often but better.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 17, 2024
It is finishing quality drives.
This weekend's "kitchen sink" game at Texas should show off the Bulldogs offense ... pic.twitter.com/zrF0ImgZwK
The Bulldogs need to come out aggressive. They are not a better team than Texas, but the first-half emphasis should create a Georgia lead at the break. The Longhorns’ talent and Steve Sarkisian’s scheming should win out in the end, hence limiting this bet to the first half.
If wanting to be even more aggressive, a combination of Georgia winning the first half but Texas winning the game will pay at nearly +700. That is not a best bet here, but it is a design with value.
UConn -1.5 vs. Wake Forest
Best odds: -105 at Caesars
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons knew they had defensive problems coming into the season. Head coach Dave Clawson saw them coming, and he knew they would be at their worst in the secondary. But no one anticipated it being this much of a mess.
There is a rather simple approach to every Demon Deacons’ game nowadays: If the opposing offense has a pertinent passing game, particularly one with some explosive capabilities, then fade Wake Forest.
It really is that simple. The Deacons rank No. 132 in the country in passing success rate against, opponents furthering their drives on 52.1% of their dropbacks. Let’s offer some more traditional stats: Wake Forest ranks No. 108 in yards allowed per pass attempt, No. 132 in passing yards allowed per game as well as completion percentage against, and No. 118 in sacks per game at 1.17.
Opponents completing 71.2% of passes is rather absurd.
The key UConn Huskies’ piece that should best exploit these Deacons’ deficiencies is its propensity for explosive passing plays. Ranking No. 92 in dropback success rate but No. 58 in expected points added on an average dropback quickly tells you that UConn does not succeed often on passing plays, but when it does, it succeeds greatly.
Against Wake Forest, the success should also come often.
UNLV Team Total Over 34.5
Best odds: +100 at BetMGM
The UNLV Rebels were an 18.5-point favorite at Utah State last weekend. A 41-7 halftime lead certainly suggested there would be no problem cashing that spread. At least, until the Rebels saw no reason to play in the second half, scraping by to a 50-34 victory.
The UNLV team total Over cashed, but the spread lost. In terms of my personal ledger, that became a breakeven game. And yet, there was value to be found. Because by letting that blowout become an optically close contest, the Rebels kept much of the world from fully catching onto how improved they are with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback.
And until the world fully catches on, let’s keep betting the UNLV team total Over. In the three games with Williams at quarterback, the Rebels have cashed all three team total Overs and by an average of 16.7 points.
The Oregon State Beavers defense will be the worst unit on the field late Saturday night and is particularly vulnerable to explosive passes. With Williams and star receiver Ricky White III very much on the same page, UNLV should pop a few explosive plays to set an early tone.
After last week’s mundane second half, they will also likely have more inherent focus in the second half in Corvallis.
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New Mexico -1.5 at Utah State
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
Bronco Mendenhall deserves piles of praise. The New Mexico Lobos offense returned two starters this season, including none along the offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback. Mendenhall now has that offense ranking at a rather average level, No. 66 in EPA and No. 87 in current SP+ ratings.
That may not be glamorous, but it is wildly beyond expectations coming into the season. Mendenhall has already proven his concept in Albuquerque to such an extent that he is now exceeding even the growing expectations, going 2-0 against the spread in the last two games.
The exact opposite dynamic is unfolding with the Utah State Aggies. Utah State fired head coach Blake Anderson in mid-July, naming defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling as interim head coach. The Aggies have gone 0-5 against FBS competition this season, losing by an average score of 48.6 to 22.8.
Utah State enjoyed that nonsense ATS win last week against UNLV, and they stayed inside the spread by a field goal against Utah right when Utes star quarterback Cam Rising was first injured this season. But both of those moments of relative success were clearly more about the opponent than about Utah State finding something viable.
And they were still blowout losses.
Utah State’s season has fallen apart and it will not improve anytime soon. The Aggies are playing out the string under an interim head coach. And now they face a team on an exact opposite trend line.
Colorado moneyline at Arizona
Best odds: +120 at BetMGM
The Colorado Buffaloes' greatest weakness in the Deion Sanders era remains a weakness. While Sanders went and found his Louis Vutton luggage at the skill positions, the Buffaloes’ offensive line is still the quality and strength of wet grocery bags.
That cost Colorado last week against Kansas State, with six sacks losing 74 yards and lessening multiple drives. Any team that has a potent defensive front-seven should be trusted against the Buffaloes.
What's my line been all season?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 13, 2024
"Deion brought his Louis to the skill positions, but Colorado still has wet grocery bags on the offensive line."
Gonna be a while before the Buffaloes face another quality defensive front. https://t.co/4a4A5DFfH1
But the Arizona Wildcats do not have a potent defensive front-seven. The Wildcats bother quarterbacks plenty, the highest rate in the Big 12, but they fail to make enough of those opportunities, ranking in the middle of the Big 12 in the effect of pressuring opposing quarterbacks.
Failing to capitalize on pressuring Shedeur Sanders will backfire on Arizona. Colorado’s playmakers — receivers Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. among them, both expected in the lineup this weekend — have developed enough that they are able to beat anyone remaining on their schedule if they have the time to make those plays.
Not intended for use in MA.
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