Perhaps this is anecdotal, but it certainly seems like bowl games have fewer notable opt-outs this season, meaning matchups like the Rutgers Scarlet Knights against the Kansas State Wildcats can be treated with a bit more veracity than in recent years.
Tonight's Rate Bowl will feature one of the Big 12’s most talented teams against one of the Big Ten’s most middling. If those adjectives don’t make it clear, my Rutgers vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks will side with the touchdown favorite on Thursday, December 26.
Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, with the game airing on ESPN.
Rutgers vs Kansas State prediction and best bet
Who will win Rutgers vs Kansas State?
The Wildcats collapsed to end the season, losing three of their last four games, turning a promising conference championship bid into a November failure. Meanwhile, the Knights won three of their last four, surging to bowl eligibility after a three-game losing streak to end October looked like it could torpedo their season.
Then why back Kansas State in the Rate Bowl? Simply enough, it is that much better. And with dynamic athletes like quarterback Avery Johnson and running back Dylan Edwards fully engaged in the bowl game, they should elevate the Wildcats to a win.
So much of this time of year is based on projecting intangible vibes. Kansas State can reset its narrative and kick off 2025 hype with a strong showing featuring Johnson and Edwards, both true sophomores.
My best bet
Kansas State -7 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
If BetMGM offered a Kansas State Wildcats team total in the realm of 28.5 or 29.5, then the Over would be a quick decision within my college football picks.
That will be the onus of this handicap, but to assure you a strong Wildcats offensive performance should be all that's needed, let’s quickly point out that the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will be repeatedly running into a defense that excels at stopping rushes on a down-by-down basis.
The Scarlet Knights run the ball 7.5% more often than an average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, and they do not dazzle with explosive plays.
Taking that approach against Kansas State will be the Arizona embodiment of running into a brick wall. The Wildcats rank No. 6 in the country in defensive rushing success rate, allowing opponents to stay ahead of the chains just 35% of the time.
Once we recognize what Rutgers's frustration will be, the question becomes simple: Can Kansas State score enough to stay ahead by a touchdown?
The Wildcats were expected to contend in the Big 12 thanks to one of the best rushing backfields in the country. They were undone by an offensive line that was not inherently up to the task.
A month off can boost an offensive line. Chemistry is rebuilt and reestablished with those practices. And that should only further Johnson’s and Edwards’ effectiveness.
Kansas State already ranks No. 18 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush, a rank buoyed immensely by explosive plays in comparison to the Wildcats ranking just No. 61 in rushing success rate, more a measure of down-by-down ability.
The great news for Kansas State is this fits against Rutgers’s exact weakness. The Knights give up successful rushes on nearly half of their opponents’ ground attempts.
The Wildcats’ so-so down-by-down rushing ability should see a distinct improvement in the Rate Bowl, in part because the offensive line play should level up during December and in part because Rutgers dreads this exact concern.
Rutgers vs Kansas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas State -6.5
Over 50.5
Avery Johnson anytime TD
Combining the Wildcats against the spread with this Over is a bet emphasizing how much of a mismatch this will be for the Knights' defense. Avery Johnson and Dylan Edwards are always ripe to rip off explosive scores.
Rutgers ranks No. 91 in the country in EPA per rush against. In other words, those lanes toward explosive scores will be readily available.
Avery Johnson has been rather loud and public this week about his commitment to Kansas State, understandable given he would demand quite a premium in the transfer market. He can insist that is because of his adoration for Manhattan and the Wildcats, but a practical piece of his choice is that Kansas State should have a dominant offensive line next season, one that makes him a trendy Heisman dark horse in the summer. The improved offensive line should begin that process against Rutgers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best Rutgers vs Kansas State bonus
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More bowl game picks and odds from Covers
- Free college football picks
- Bowl game odds and schedule
- College football National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
- College football odds
Rutgers vs Kansas State odds
Rutgers vs Kansas State live odds
Rutgers vs Kansas State opening odds
- Rutgers vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State -7
- Rutgers vs. Kansas State moneyline: Rutgers +255, Kansas State -320
- Rutgers vs. Kansas State Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Rutgers vs Kansas State spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened at -7 and spent the month of December there but for a few toggles downward to -6.5.
- Over the weekend before Christmas, most sportsbooks stuck at -6.5, though one can wonder if holiday idle time and twiddling thumbs will push that back to -7.
- This total opened at 52.5 and dropped to 51.5 a day later, then falling to 50.5 a week later. 61% of Covers Consensus users are backing Kansas State on the spread, while 51% are taking the Over.
Rutgers vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Kansas State has gone 2-1 outright in bowl games under Lance Liepold, 2-0 outright and against the spread when favored. Find more college football betting trends for Rutgers vs. Kansas State.
Rutgers vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-26-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Rutgers vs Kansas State latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Rutgers vs Kansas State weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
