It is not that the USC Trojans ever had realistic national title hopes this season, but Lincoln Riley’s locker room certainly believed greater things were possible. Absolutely no one outside the locker room put USC into the top tier of the country, but all versions of those thoughts are dashed by now, such that the flailing Rutgers Scarlet Knights now have a better record than the Trojans.
My Rutgers vs. USC predictions see this lost Trojans season as something to consistently fade, these college football picks doubting Riley’s ability to right this ship before kickoff at 11:00 ET on Friday, October 25.
Rutgers vs USC prediction
My best bet
Rutgers +14 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Setting aside the obviously distorted 2020 season, in Lincoln Riley’s first five seasons as a head coach, he remained in national title contention until the postseason. He had never had a season fall apart until last year.
Then the USC Trojans turned a 6-0 start in 2023 into a 7-5 regular season. While the Trojans were never strong compared to bookmakers expectations, going just 2-4 against the spread to start the year, they fell short of those expectations by an average of only 4.4 points per game in the season’s first half. That then plummeted to 1-5 ATS and short of expectations by an average of 11.2 points per game in the regular season’s second half.
Riley has proven his strengths as a head coach, but there's no indication keeping a locker room together with no great carrot remaining for the season is one of those strengths. USC has lost three games this season as an outright favorite, two of them part of an active three-game losing streak coming as the Trojans’ hopes and dreams fell apart.
USC is 3-4.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 19, 2024
Lincoln Riley never lost a third game in a season in his five seasons at Oklahoma.
He has now lost a fourth in each of the last two seasons at USC, this year earlier than last.
2022: Third loss in a bowl game.
2023: Fourth loss in 11th game (and then 12th)
2024: 3-4. https://t.co/cCu4LupRsy
Some of USC’s best defenders have opted out for the rest of the season in the last two weeks. Quarterback Miller Moss is facing questions about his effectiveness. The Trojans’ train is falling off the tracks, and Riley has not shown an ability to stop that.
Nonetheless, USC is a two-touchdown home favorite this week. First of all, no line should be inflated by playing at the LA Memorial Coliseum, certainly not on the night of a World Series Game 1 in Chavez Ravine. Secondly, a few injuries for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights have pushed this line to the full two touchdowns when it should be closer to -10.
Knights head coach Greg Schiano has had time to figure out compensating for those injuries, while Riley is learning on the fly how to keep a locker room together. It's unlikely he has already put together that lesson, one he never wanted to learn.
Rutgers vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Rutgers +14.5
Under 56.5
Kyle Monangai anytime touchdown
Rutgers is also on a three-game losing streak, but only one piece of it was an outright embarrassment. That may sound like a backhanded compliment, but compare that to the Trojans losing twice as outright favorites and the third game of this three-game losing streak including a blown 14-point halftime lead at home.
Recognizing all that, let’s trust the Knights to dictate game state, as five of their seven games would have fallen short of this total.
Even as Rutgers keeps games low-scoring, senior running back Kyle Monangai has scored 10 times this season and in six of seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rutgers vs USC odds
Rutgers vs USC live odds
Rutgers vs USC opening odds
- Rutgers vs. USC spread: USC -12.5
- Rutgers vs. USC moneyline: Rutgers +365, USC -490
- Rutgers vs. USC Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Rutgers vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s first true lines opened with USC favored by 13 points, a number that climbed to -14.5 by early afternoon and hung there into the evening, slipping to -14 at some books and -13.5 at others.
- But then, come Monday, the consensus again rose to -14.5 before falling back to -13.5 again at most books on Wednesday evening.
- This total opened at 51.5 before quickly skyrocketing on Sunday, up to 55 and 55.5 within minutes. It peaked at 57 on Tuesday and has since held at 56.5.
Rutgers vs USC betting trend to know
Rutgers has covered the first-quarter spread in its last four road games. Find more college football betting trends for Rutgers vs USC.
Rutgers vs USC game info
| Location: | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 10-25, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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