Every week in college football, there is a moment that could provide unexpected comedy that shifts the entire season. This week’s prime opportunity is if the Illinois Fighting Illini upset the Oregon Ducks as more than three-touchdown underdogs.
But the Ducks easily handled a letdown moment a week ago. Staying focused against the Illini should be even easier.
My Illinois vs. Oregon predictions may not seem like they are putting faith in the Ducks, but taking the Under here is an implicit endorsement of the home team in these free college football picks for Saturday, October 26.
Illinois vs Oregon prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Last Friday night was a ripe chance for the Oregon Ducks to stub their, um, webbed feet. Just six days after arguably the biggest win at Autzen Stadium in program history, Oregon had to go on the road to face an offense that in its one game with a new offensive coordinator had looked astounding.
And then the Ducks wiped the floor with Purdue, having no trouble at any point in a 35-0 win. More precisely, Oregon went up 21-0 in the first 19 minutes on three genuine touchdown drives averaging 85 yards per drive. The final two scores came in the fourth quarter when the Boilermakers had effectively reached quit mode.
On a second-and-11 in plus-territory, Purdue still just ran the ball. A turnover on downs soon followed. A possession later, the Boilermakers went three-and-out. In both instances, the Ducks followed with short-field touchdowns.
Point being, Oregon knew it was in a questionable situational spot, it took care of business early, and it then shut down the game to finish quick work of any worries.
The Ducks are again in a questionable situational spot. Next week they head to Michigan, and even in the Wolverines’ struggling season, that should be the greatest challenge remaining in Oregon’s regular season. Head coach Dan Lanning needs to be sure his team does not look past the Illinois Fighting Illini to Michigan.
The Ducks need to again take care of business early and then shut down this Big Ten matchup to finish quick work of any worries. That game script would not assure Oregon of covering -21.5, but it would set up this total to fall Under 54.5.
Illinois vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 54.5
Oregon -20.5
Luke Altmyer anytime TD
The BetMGM same-game parlay offerings dropping the spread by a point suddenly makes it palatable to consider. Simply enough, there is value in having an investment in this number below three full touchdowns.
Adding Luke Altmyer to this same-game parlay skews the value, launching it from a mere +300 to +3,500. That dramatic leap makes plenty of sense. Altmyer has only two rushing touchdowns this season, and Oregon has a strong rush defense.
But Altmyer’s two rushing touchdowns have come in the last two weeks, moments when Illinois was desperate, at the start of the fourth quarter of a one-possession game against Purdue and then in the third quarter of a one-possession game against Michigan.
If the Illini need to convert in a crucial moment or attempt to remain in a game getting away from them, they may turn to Altmyer where it matters most.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best Illinois vs Oregon bonus
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Illinois vs Oregon odds
Illinois vs Oregon live odds
Illinois vs Oregon opening odds
- Illinois vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -21.5
- Illinois vs. Oregon moneyline: Illinois +1,100, Oregon -2,500
- Illinois vs. Oregon Over/Under: 54.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Illinois vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s first valid lines made Oregon a 21-point favorite, a number that climbed to -21.5 immediately. Some sportsbooks never opened below -21.5.
- This total first opened at 54.5 and never moved aside from some brief early-week moments at 55 before always returning to 54.5.
- The spread hanging a hook past a key number toward Illinois and the total sitting a hook Under a key number creates conflict in who oddsmakers are actually leaning toward, given the Illini are 5-1-1 ATS, while also hitting the Under in five of seven games. Protecting the spread from an Oregon cover while also protecting the total from the Under sends a dichotomous message about what to expect.
Illinois vs Oregon betting trend to know
Three of Oregon’s last four games have gone Under their totals. Find more college football betting trends for Illinois vs Oregon.
Illinois vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Illinois vs Oregon latest injuries
Illinois vs Oregon weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
