South Dakota State vs Montana Prediction: FCS Championship Game Odds and Picks

The FCS playoff resulted in the best possible outcome for fans — the two top teams going head-to-head with a title on the line.

The No. 1 South Dakota State Jackrabbits (14-0) may be on the brink of a dynasty as they try to make it two straight championships, but it'll be far from an easy test against Bobby Hauck’s No. 2 Montana Grizzlies (13-1).

Will the Jackrabbits keep their 28-game winning streak alive with their second title in as many years? The college football odds indicate that they will, as SDSU is a hefty 13.5-point favorite.

Read on for my best bet and full college football picks and predictions for the FCS Championship Game between the South Dakota State Jackrabbits and the Montana Grizzlies on Sunday, January 7.

South Dakota State vs Montana best odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on January 5, 2023.

South Dakota State vs Montana picks and predictions

The FCS Championship is a good one this year between the two best teams in the country — the No. 1 South Dakota State Jackrabbits and the No. 2 Montana Grizzlies. This is a matchup between two heavyweight teams with a combined record of 27-1. Both teams have been dominant this season, and both fully deserve their place in the game, which sets the table for a scintillating finale.

Jimmy Rogers’ Jackrabbits marched to 14-0 with little trouble, as all but two games have been decided by more than one score.

They feature a massive and dominant offensive line working in front of experienced three-year starting quarterback Mark Gronowski, who was named the FCS Offensive Player of the Year after completing 68.5% of his passes for 2,883 yards and 28 touchdowns with only four interceptions. All Gronowski has done in his career is rack up a 36-3 record while reaching the FCS title game in all three seasons as the starter.

He’s joined in the backfield by NFL prospect Isaiah Davis at running back, who rushed for an FBS-leading 1,491 yards, to go along with 17 touchdowns. Out wide, twins Jadon and Jaxon Janke have produced a combined 99 receptions for 1,643 tards and 14 touchdowns.

They’ve been dominant on both sides of the ball, averaging 38.4 points per game and 537 total yards per game offensively while limiting teams to 9.7 PPG and 136 total yards per game defensively. The opening rounds of the playoffs have proved little trouble — they first trounced Mercer 41-0, then survived a relatively close 23-12 game against Villanova, before demolishing Albany 59-0 in the semifinal.

The Montana Grizzlies present a tough challenge as Bobby Hauck’s team has had a terrific campaign. This marks the Grizzlies’ eighth all-time appearance in the title game, which is tied for second-most nationally. They’ll need an upset to pull off their third title victory, entering Frisco as heavy underdogs. The good news for them is that they’ve dominated this matchup in the past, going 8-0 against the Jackrabbits all-time.

Transfer quarterback Clifton McDowell earned the starting job midway through the season and hasn’t looked back while running back Eli Gillman won the Jerry Rice Award as the nation’s most outstanding freshman after rushing for 950 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Similarly to SDSU, Montana has been a well-balanced and effective team on both sides of the ball. The Grizzlies average 32.2 PPG and 451 total yards per game offensively while surrendering just 16.8 PPG and 235 total yards per game defensively.

The Grizzlies have found a ton of success during a surprising season, but there’s a reason that they’re a two-score underdog in the finale. A Jackrabbits win would put this SDSU team in discussion as one of the greatest FCS teams of all time. 

SDSU should be able to find plenty of success on the ground against Montana’s 3-3-5 base defense. The Grizzlies shored up their rush defense this season by only allowing 102.9 rushing yards per game, but Davis and company are on a different level and will find their way to the end zone.

SDSU has an average margin of victory of 37 points through its first three playoff games. A year ago, it toppled a dynasty by trouncing North Dakota State 45-21 in the title game. 

This is an experienced roster with 34 seniors, and they’re importantly familiar with this venue, having made it to Frisco for the third time in the last four seasons.

It’s hard to find holes with this team — they’re loaded with NFL prospects and the roster is full of huge, athletic, skilled, and well-coached players. They’re dominant on both sides of the ball and I expect them to march to victory and cover Sunday's double-digit spread. 

My best bet: South Dakota State -13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

South Dakota State vs Montana same-game parlay

South Dakota -13.5

Under 49.5

+273 at FanDuel

Here’s a two-leg SGP for the FCS Championship game, featuring my best bet combined with the full game Under.

Both offenses have been terrific this season to the point where folks are expecting points, but I’m also a huge believer in SDSU’s defense and could see the Jackrabbits putting the clamps on the Grizzlies for a large portion of this game. It’s also possible that Montana comes out a bit tentative considering the strong opponents that it is facing, and SDSU’s staff has had three weeks to game-plan ways to stop this offense.

Simply put, I believe the under correlates best with an SDSU cover, as the Jackrabbits’ main way to get upset in this game is if it becomes a back-and-forth affair where the Grizzlies can stay above water offensively.

SDSU’s immense talent should show itself yet again here on the offensive line, where I expect the Jackrabbits to pave openings for the great running back behind them. This should keep the clock moving somewhat consistently and if they find as much success running the ball as I think they might, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to control the ball and the clock for much of the game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

South Dakota State vs Montana spread and Over/Under analysis

Most locations are currently listing SDSU as 13.5-point favorites, while the total resides at 49.5.

I like this mix of talent and experience with the Jackrabbits, so it’d be hard for me to consider the underdog unless there was a substantial line movement before kickoff. I’m comfortable getting them below two touchdowns with the current line.

I also may be partial to the Janke twins considering their last name, but these two are serious threats to find the end zone in any given game. Gronowski is an experienced and effective quarterback with weapons around him and a dominant line setting the tone for this game, and that’s enough for me to fully expect another SDSU championship.

The total is tricky since both teams grade out as elite on both sides of the ball. Something will have to give, but what exactly?

Montana has benefited from Junior Bergen’s three return touchdowns in the playoffs. While that’s been an amazing story, it’s difficult to expect that success to continue against a well-prepared team like SDSU.

If we take away scoring in the return game, where will Montana move the ball consistently? Despite being balanced, this offense wants to run the ball. The Grizzlies have gained 141 first downs on the ground compared to 120 through the air, while also gaining nearly as many rushing yards per game (186.1) as passing yards per game (196.8).

SDSU has been stout all year against the run, allowing just 92.6 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per rush. This team thrives off physicality and I expect them to be ready in the trenches.

South Dakota State vs Montana game info

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