The Kalen DeBoer era at Alabama got off to a flying start as the Crimson Tide crushed Western Kentucky 63-0. Next up, they welcome the USF Bulls to Tuscaloosa.
But if there’s a team that thinks it can hang with Bama it’s the Bulls. USF put a scare into the Tide last season, making Alabama work for a 17-3 win in a game that was tied at the half despite a 34.5-point spread.
Can the Bulls put up another good fight? My USF vs. Alabama predictions break down this intriguing matchup and bring you my favorite college football picks for Saturday, September 7.
South Florida vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Under 64.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Alabama started its season with a bang, lighting up the scoreboard in a 63-0 win against Western Kentucky.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe was uber-efficient (a little too efficient for those of us who bet the Over on his passing yard prop), throwing for 200 yards on just 7-of-9 passing with three touchdowns.
Highly touted frosh wideout Ryan Williams caught two of those passes for 139 yards and two scores. While the Tide rushed for an eye-popping 334 yards and six tuddies.
But South Florida won’t be intimidated by the Crimson Tide. The way Alex Golesh has quickly turned around this program has been impressive. The Bulls went 7-6 last season, after winning just four games in the last three seasons combined. And now they enter this season as a contender in the AAC.
South Florida took care of business in its opener, taking out FCS Bethune-Cookman 48-3 and covering the 43-point spread, and will feel confident heading into this matchup after how they played Alabama last season.
But things will be a little different this time around.
This time, Jalen Milroe will play, the game will be in Tuscaloosa, where the forecast isn’t calling for a torrential downpour. Milroe was questionably benched for that game after the loss to Texas. Kalen DeBoer won’t be doing that on Saturday.
But one thing that will be similar to last year's matchup is I believe the Tide will make scoring difficult for the Bulls in this matchup.
Alabama comes into this matchup with one of its most balanced defensive units in years. They are coming off a shutout of Western Kentucky where they caused two turnovers.
Meanwhile, USF’s play calling and offense predicated on running the football, could give them some life for a bit. But finishing drives could be a problem. And even though the Bulls will likely be overmatched in the long run, their defense returns eight starters and should be improved again this season.
All that to say, I think the total has been elevated a little bit due to Alabama’s outburst last week and is a tough too high for this matchup.
South Florida vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 64.5
Jalen Milroe Over 254.5 Passing Yards
Byrum Brown Under 174.5 Passing Yards
Taking Byrum Brown to go Under his passing yards prop is kind of following up on the Under full game total.
Alabama made life hell for Western Kentucky quarterback TJ Finley last week, holding him to just 18-of-31 for just 92 yards passing, on a minuscule 2.9 yards per attempt, and picking him off twice.
The Tide did a great job of keeping everything in front of them and I think they can replicate that performance against Brown. Mix in the idea that USF needs to sustain drives with the run game and milk the clock and Brown looks like a solid bet to stay Under this number.
On the other side, last week my best bet for Alabama’s game against Western Kentucky was for quarterback Jalen Milroe to go Over his passing yard prop of 240.5 yards. He did not. But he was super efficient going 7-9 for 200 yards.
And a couple of short fields from interceptions allowed the Tide to just run the ball into the endzone early against the Hilltoppers. And boom. It was 42-0 at half.
The thinking there was he averaged 230 yards per game last season for an offense that ranked 120th in pass-play percentage and he was going to a coach who ranked in the Top 10 in that category when he was at Washington.
I’m going back to the well here and taking the Over again because I believe that thinking is still correct and Milroe should pass the ball much more this season when all is said and done. And he faces a South Florida defense that ranked 104th in the country in opponent passing yards per attempt last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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South Florida vs Alabama odds
South Florida vs Alabama live odds
South Florida vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: South Florida +31 | Alabama -31
- Moneyline: South Florida +2,500 | Alabama -10,000
- Over/Under: Over 63.5 | Under 63.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
South Florida vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread for this matchup hit the board at 31 and that's where it remains as of the Friday evening before kickoff.
- I'd have a slight lean toward Alabama here. Milroe will play this time around and the Alabama defense looks like a better overall unit this season.
- The total opened at 63.5 and has been bet up a point to the current number of 64.5.
- Even at the opening number, I think this spread is a touch too high.
South Florida vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home for +3.80 Units and a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for South Florida vs. Alabama.
South Florida vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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