There’s a barn burner brewing on Friday night as the TCU Horned Frogs visit the Stanford Cardinal.
A vaunted Horned Frogs attack and a paltry Cardinal stop unit have our TCU vs. Stanford predictions looking at the Over.
Read on for my Week 1 college football picks for Friday, August 29.
TCU vs Stanford prediction
My best bet
Over 59.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This TCU Horned Frogs offense is going to score in bunches.
Quarterback Josh Hoover was a revelation at the end of last season, throwing for at least 300 passing yards in five of his six games while topping out with 439 against BYU.
The sophomore leads an offense ranked 19th in success rate while averaging 31.3 ppg — not bad, especially not when it was perceived by many as a down year. The skill positions are loaded — Cam Cook is an explosive running back and the wide receiver room has an embarrassment of riches with Savion Williams, Dylan Wright, John Paul Richardson, Jack Bech, and Eric McAlister.
This is Kendal Briles' second year calling the shots as offensive coordinator and we know he likes to push tempo and put points up in a hurry. There’s an opportunity to do just that against a Stanford Cardinal defense that ranked 133rd in both EPA per play and success rate while surrendering 37.7 ppg.
The biggest concern with TCU’s offense is an unproven offensive line returning only two players who have started multiple games. That concern is mitigated considering Stanford’s defensive front does not instill fear into the hearts of opponents, ranking 123rd in defensive line yards and 129th in front seven havoc.
On the flip side, the Horned Frogs have a lot of ground to make up after last season’s disappointing results (95th in EPA per play, 87th in success rate, 88th in explosiveness).
Stanford head coach Troy Taylor has a strong track record of offensive success and it’s easier to see the expected growth on that side of the ball after last year’s youth movement. We might see multiple quarterbacks — and at least four running backs — according to the depth chart, but Ashton Daniels showed promise as a signal caller last year and has a star in wide receiver Elic Ayomanor to target early and often.
The Cardinal were completely overmatched on the offensive front a year ago but return all five starters and nine with experience, so they should take a massive leap forward. TCU’s new defensive scheme under Andy Avalos will attempt to bring the heat, but the Cardinal have the requisite poise and talent in the passing attack to make them pay.
TCU vs Stanford same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 60.5
Josh Hoover 275+ passing yards
Josh Hoover 3+ passing TD
Elic Ayomanor 80+ receiving yards
Hoover averaged 339.5 passing yards per game down the stretch last season, after taking over as the No. 1 QB, and faces a Stanford secondary that was routinely torched a year ago.
Ayomanor became a college football legend when he dominated Travis Hunter and Colorado with 13 receptions for 294 yards and three TD in a miraculous comeback win a season ago. Well, he's back fore more this season and should be even more lethal as a sophomore with an improved offense around him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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TCU vs Stanford odds
TCU vs Stanford live odds
TCU vs Stanford opening odds
- Spread: TCU -10.5 (-110) | Stanford +10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: TCU -425 | Stanford +325
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 (-110) | Under 60.5 (-110)
TCU vs Stanford spread and Over/Under analysis
- Stanford was just 2-5 ATS at home a year ago. It may have one of the least impactful home-field advantages of any Power 4 team.
- TCU finished with a 5-7 record a year ago but held a +0.5 yards per play margin. Stanford finished 3-9 and had a -1.6 yards per play margin.
- TCU recorded at least 520 total yards of offense in three of its final six games of 2023. Stanford’s defense surrendered 500+ yards in five of its final eight games.
TCU vs Stanford betting trend to know
Stanford is 0-4 in its last four home openers and has allowed an average of 35.3 ppg. Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs. Stanford.
TCU vs Stanford game info
| Location: | Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 8-30, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
TCU vs Stanford latest injuries
TCU vs Stanford weather
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