Would anyone like to explain why the Tulane Green Wave are favored by just 14.5 points at the Charlotte 49ers? This spread has moved in the wrong direction, and it defies comprehension.
Tonight's Tulane vs. Charlotte predictions will be quick and simple, with these free college football picks taking the far and away better team on Thursday, October 31.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte, with the game airing on ESPN. For more info and wagering advice, check out Eric Rosales' Tulane vs. Charlotte prop picks.
Tulane vs Charlotte prediction and best bet
My best bet
Tulane -14.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It is not just that Tulane is distinctly better than Charlotte, which it is. It’s also that the Green Wave has been improving week by week, while the 49ers have remained mired among the worst teams in the country.
Simply by referring to the most widely accepted metrics, Charlotte ranks No. 121 in the country in the current SP+ ratings, 18.3 points worse than the average team. In the last month, the 49ers peaked at No. 118. They are, so very simply, bad.
Tulane has been improving, now 3.2 points better than the average team. After suffering two frustrating losses against Kansas State and Oklahoma in early September, the Green Wave have rattled off five straight victories, four of them ATS wins. That initial uptick in competition has skewed our appreciation of Tulane.
If one of those losses had gone the other way — that loss to Kansas State particularly frustrating, the difference being a Wildcats’ fumble return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter — there would be a bounty of buzz around Tulane possibly making the College Football Playoff. The Green Wave is not considered the class of the AAC yet, not with Army and Memphis afoot, not to mention Navy. But Tulane should be perhaps regarded in that tier.
That will most show itself physically against Charlotte. The Green Wave leans on a quality run game, rushing 15.7% more often than the average team would in a given game state. The 49ers are most susceptible against the run, ranking No. 98 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against and No. 107 in success rate against the rush, per cfb-graphs.
Tulane will gladly dictate the terms of this game, running through Charlotte. The Green Wave find scoring opportunities on 60.9% of their possessions, No. 5 in the country. The 49ers give up those moments on 54.8% of opposing possessions, No. 133 in the country.
When hearing those numbers, there may be an instinct to assume Tulane will cruise past its team total (Over 35.5, -102 at FanDuel), but the more important realization is that the Green Wave will never truly ease off the gas pedal. Even when they are up comfortably, they will keep running the ball and run it successfully until in scoring position.
Maybe that turns a 14-3 game into a 21-3 final score. Maybe it turns a 28-14 game into a 42-17 laugher. The spread is the safer play, simply needing less variance to enjoy.
Tulane vs Charlotte same-game parlay (SGP)
Tulane -14.5
Tulane team total Over 35.5
Makhi Hughes 2+ touchdowns
Basing a same-game parlay on any player scoring at least two touchdowns is always a risky choice, but Tulane running back Makhi Hughes has done so twice this season, both in games when the Green Wave ran up the score by running the ball.
Tulane will not hesitate to run the ball on Thursday night. Frankly, the weeknight oddity may emphasize that further, a simplified game plan allowing the Green Wave to still produce on a short week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tulane vs Charlotte odds
Tulane vs Charlotte live odds
Tulane vs Charlotte opening odds
- Tulane vs. Charlotte spread: Charlotte +16.5
- Tulane vs. Charlotte moneyline: Tulane -750, Charlotte +525
- Tulane vs. Charlotte Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tulane vs Charlotte spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s first genuine lines set Tulane as a 15-point favorite, a number that quickly spiked to -16.5 before coming back to -14.5 on Wednesday.
- That line move makes no sense, quite frankly. If anything, the expectation should have been that this spread would cross to -17.5.
- This total first reached the market at 55.5, a mark that never flinched this week.
Tulane vs Charlotte betting trend to know
The Green Wave have gone 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. Find more college football betting trends for Tulane vs Charlotte.
Tulane vs Charlotte game info
| Location: | Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Tulane vs Charlotte latest injuries
Tulane vs Charlotte weather
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