There are few combinations more entertaining than LSU Tigers fans in Las Vegas. One possibly more entertaining option is an LSU season opener against the USC Trojans. Such is the gift the college football gods have given us in a standalone game on Sunday night.
Our LSU vs. USC predictions and college football picks take an early look before kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 1
USC vs LSU predictions
Early spread lean
LSU -4 (-112 at DraftKings)
My analysis
These offensive rosters experienced a bounty of transition this offseason, as seems to be the ironic constant for both programs in this era of immediate eligibility upon transferring.
The USC Trojans return just three offensive starters as part of replacing 2022 Heisman winner Caleb Williams. The LSU Tigers return six offensive starters as they look to replace 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, but they also must do so without Mike Denbrock as offensive coordinator.
Even without Denbrock, Daniels, and two first-round receivers, LSU should be the resoundingly more experienced offense. Four returning starters along the offensive line and a known promising quantity at quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier should set a high floor for the Tigers.
USC senior quarterback Miller Moss provides no such known trust. He's thrown just 92 passes in 12 games in his career, largely in blowouts courtesy of Williams. Any hype around him nowadays is based on his Holiday Bowl appearance against a wildly depleted Louisville, throwing for 372 yards and six touchdowns. Remove those gaudy numbers and Moss can claim just 542 yards and three passing touchdowns.
That is not to say Moss will fail in the end. It's just that he should not be granted too much faith already.
LSU will set out to fluster him. New defensive coordinator Blake Baker is known for an aggressive scheme, one that could unlock arguably the most dynamic defender in the country, Harold Perkins Jr., controversially still at inside linebacker. Greg Penn III and Major Burns join Perkins as returning starters at linebacker and that may be the underrated difference in this matchup.
USC has no corresponding strength on its defense. No matter if Bear Alexander has returned at defensive tackle or if linebacker Eric Gentry should dictate this defense. It is, overall, a weakness.
The two best units on the field will be both the offenses, but one is a bit better known. And one of the defenses is significantly less of a weakness than the other. In both cases, the edge goes to LSU.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 64 (-110 at BetRivers)
My analysis
First of all, the more LSU scores, the more return chances USC sophomore receiver Zachariah Branch will get. Kick to him at your own risk.
Then again, even if the Tigers do not score, that will usually mean they are risking a punt to Branch. He returned both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns last season, the kind of electric player that USC has elevated to stardom in the 21st century.
Beyond Branch’s constant threat, these two offenses may be flawed, but they are better than these defenses. Furthermore, LSU’s hoped-for defensive strength is to induce havoc. Havoc yields the kinds of mistakes that create quick points.
Lastly, the best position group in this entire game will be the Tigers’ offensive line. LSU’s ground game is a bit unknown, certainly compared to Nussmeier’s arm. So that offensive line should be best utilized in giving Nussmeier time to look downfield — and that should lead to points.
USC vs LSU live odds
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