It is fine with college football fans if the NFL takes a few more days to get going. A Sunday night battle between the USC Trojans and the LSU Tigers is a perfect way to continue Labor Day weekend.
As the two programs replace the last two Heisman winners, the instinct may be to bet on their defenses, but my USC vs. LSU predictions see that as a mistake, with these college football picks focusing on reasons their offenses should start this season strongly with kickoff at 7:30 ET tonight.
USC vs LSU prediction
My best bet
LSU -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This bet was made with much more confidence at -4 earlier in the week, a number some books are clinging to yet as of Friday evening, but the belief in LSU’s overall roster should support this number even at -4.5 at BetMGM.
First of all, the Tigers have a bit more faith in Garrett Nussmeier than the USC Trojans do in Miller Moss, the two replacements for Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, respectively. But inexperienced starters are usually only as good as the tools around them, and Nussmeier has more proven assets around him.
Most notably, LSU returns four starting offensive linemen, likely the strongest position group on the field in Las Vegas on Sunday night. Sophomore running back Kaleb Jackson and senior receiver Kyren Lacy should, in theory, provide enough skill position talent to spur Nussmeier forward in his first year as a starter.
Nussmeier led the way to a win against Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl, a 98-yard drive in the final minutes giving the Tigers their 10th win of the season. As much as we all increasingly diminish the impact of bowl games, a quarterback knowing he can direct a last-minute drive is a necessary confidence boost.
Moss got no such confidence boost because he was playing such a shell of an already overrated Louisville team in the Holiday Bowl. His life will not be that simple against an LSU defense now coordinated by Blake Baker. His preference is to sew havoc wherever he can and with Harold Perkins Jr. on the field — no matter where he is lined up, though it will remain at inside linebacker, despite many people’s wonderings about that choice — Baker should sew some havoc at Moss’s expense.
USC’s defense should be improved if only because Lincoln Riley finally parted ways with coordinator Alex Grinch, but new coordinator D’Anton Lynn simply does not have the same ingredients to cook with that Baker does.
These margins are slim, but they are also distinct on both sides of the ball in favor of LSU. At -4, that combination inspired some confidence. At -4.5, it remains the correct choice.
USC vs LSU same-game parlay (SGP)
LSU -4.5
Kaleb Jackson anytime touchdown
Zachariah Branch anytime touchdown
As a fourth-string freshman, LSU running back Kaleb Jackson still found the end zone four times on 31 carries. He should lead the way in that backfield now, with senior Josh Williams not far behind. Without Jayden Daniels running the ball as often, the Tigers may develop a running back emphasis, especially behind that strong offensive line.
And every time LSU scores, USC star Zachariah Branch will get his chance at glory. The sophomore receiver scored a touchdown on a punt return, a kick return, a rush, and a catch last season. He is a threat to find the goal line every time he touches the ball.
A bolder choice here, one too bold to officially recommend but something to still ponder, would be to pick Branch to score the first touchdown of the game, a choice that would escalate this same-game parlay up to +2,800.
Riley knows who his best player is. There are certainly some plays in the Trojan playbook that get Branch into space. Calling one of those early — if Branch did not already take an opening kickoff to the end zone — could spark USC’s offense on a night it may need it.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
USC vs LSU odds
USC vs LSU live odds
USC vs LSU opening odds
- Spread: USC +6.5 (-105) | LSU -6.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: USC +198 | LSU -245
- Over/Under: Over 64.5 | Under 64.5
USC vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some Week 1 spreads move too late to be trusted. This one just might be one of them, sitting at -6.5 well into August before ticking down to -5.5 two weeks ago. It then fell to -4.5 just last week. Nearly 60% of wagers and handle are laying the points with the Tigers, per BetMGM.
- This total fell quickly this summer, opening at 64.5 in June and falling to 62.5 within days. It did not start to climb again until two weeks ago, again inspiring some doubt as to the source of that move after not moving for two months.
- Then again, USC went 10-3 to the Over last season while LSU cashed the Over in a mind-boggling 12 of its 13 games. BetMGM is reporting 65% of bets and 73% of handle on the Over as of noon ET on Sunday.
USC vs LSU betting trend to know
With some sportsbooks at -4, it can be said this line moved to a key number in the last week, falling to -4 from -5.5. In the last two years, 61 FBS vs. FBS games in Weeks 0 or 1 had notable line moves like that. In 56.6% of them, the line moved contrary to what ended up being the final result. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico vs Arizona.
USC vs LSU game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
USC vs LSU latest injuries
USC vs LSU weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
