The USC Trojans and the Michigan Wolverines have almost completely changed their perceptions three weeks into the season. USC looks like a well-rounded team for a change, while Michigan can't seem to buy an effective offense.
The Wolverines’ offensive struggles will be on display in today's USC vs. Trojans predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 21.
USC vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
USC -6 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If BetMGM offered the chance for a straight bet on the Michigan Wolverines’ team total Under of 19.5 or 20, that would be ideal. If limits on bets did not rise until Friday evening or Saturday morning, and an Under 46.5 was still available — as Andrew Caley advised on this week’s episode of “College Football 134,” — would be a no-brainer.
But those wishes are about as valid as USC Trojans’ the last two seasons of wishing for a defense, or Michigan’s newfound need of an offense. Wishing for it does not simply make it a reality. Santa Claus is still three-plus months away.
Lincoln Riley finally made a change at defensive coordinator this past offseason, bringing in D’Anton Lynn from UCLA, and the Trojans suddenly look competent on that side of the ball.
To end last season, USC’s defensive SP+ rating was No. 105. The offseason personnel changes and two games against FBS opponents have lowered that to now No. 70, a 5.4-point improvement compared to the average defense in the country.
No. 70 may not seem impressive, but that still includes plenty of 2023 data. Switching metrics to get a look solely at 2024 data, USC has the No. 10 defense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap against at -0.13, according to cfb-graphs via collegefootballinsiders.com.
Sure, one of those games was against Utah State, but one was also against LSU. There is some validity to this improvement.
Michigan is certainly closer to LSU than Utah State in this broad conversation, but a few pieces of the Wolverines offense elicit thoughts of the Aggies more than the Tigers. Both Michigan and Utah State prefer to run the ball, each doing so notably more often than the average team would in given game states. Both struggle to turn enough possessions into quality drives, the Wolverines doing so 34.5% of the time (No. 93) and the Aggies lagging at 28.0% (No. 108).
And with Michigan turning to Alex Orji at quarterback, it's going to become even more one-dimensional. Orji is clearly limited throwing the ball, and his offensive approach often requires going horizontal before vertical. That might pose some teams problems, but Lynn and the Trojans have had two weeks to prepare for it, Orji-for-Davis Warren long seeming an inevitable QB swap.
USC’s defense ranks Top-10 in EPA per rush against and is No. 17 in rushing success rate against.
The Wolverines’ habit fits the Trojans’ greatest strength as they have improved under Lynn. Taking USC to beat Michigan by nearly a touchdown is not what is shocking here. Doing it because of the Trojans’ defense is the unexpected 2024 wrinkle.
USC vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
USC -5.5
Under 43.5
Zachariah Branch anytime touchdown
The move from Warren to Orji can be credited with some of this total’s fall from 46.5. When betting limits rose on Wednesday, it plummeted. Some of it also simply ties to Michigan’s best chance at being competitive in this game.
USC-Michigan total has dipped to 44! 📉📉📉
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) September 19, 2024
Which is your reminder to make sure you tune in to the early week edition of College Football 134 where we gave out Under 46.5!
Some of our best bets are still available.
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Michigan’s defense is still well above average, No. 4 in SP+ ratings and No. 35 in defensive EPA. It should stop USC a few times, at which point the Wolverines’ offensive ineptitude should give this deflated total plenty of life, at least as long as it remains above 42.
Including the thought of Zachariah Branch finding the end zone increases this same-game parlay payout by 274%. Given he handles the ball on punt returns, kickoff returns, at receiver and even on handoffs, that value is undeniable.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USC vs Michigan odds
USC vs Michigan live odds
USC vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: USC -6.5 | Michigan +6.5
- Moneyline: USC -250 | Michigan +200
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
USC vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- The first versions of this line hit the market in late May with Michigan a 10.5-point favorite, a number that fell to -8.5 for much of the summer before coming off the board entirely when the season began.
- On Sunday, USC opened as a field goal favorite at Circa Sports, but that was almost immediately bet up to -6.5, dropping to -5.5 that night and toggling between the two numbers much of the week.
- Initially, the market opened with this total at 43.5, an early week rise to 46.5 preceding the Wednesday drop to 44.
USC vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan has fallen short of its team total in all three games this season and by an average of five points per game. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs Michigan.
USC vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
USC vs Michigan latest injuries
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