Wyoming vs UNLV Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Pound the Ground With Authority

Tonight offers an intriguing Group of 5 game to look forward to as two of the Mountain West’s better teams square off in Sin City.

The UNLV Rebels have been one of the sport’s biggest surprises this season and will look to keep the good vibes going as they host the Wyoming Cowboys.

Glancing at college football odds, the home team is favored by 5.5 points while the total is set at 50.5. I’m eyeing the total with my best bet for tonight's contest.

The Rebels have consistently churned out yardage with a new-look offense this season but will be tested in this stretch run as the level of competition elevates. 

Will the fireworks show continue in Week 11? Read on for my best bet and full college football picks for Wyoming vs. UNLV on November 10. 

Wyoming vs UNLV best odds

Wyoming vs UNLV picks and predictions

The best unit on the field from a numbers perspective will be the UNLV Rebels offense. The Rebels have been unstoppable under first-year OC Brennan Marion, whose Go-Go offense has been a revelation in Vegas averaging 36.7 PPG while churning out 426.8 total yards per game on a healthy 6.2 yards per play. The advanced numbers love this unit as well — the Rebels check in at 32nd in EPA per play and 14th in explosiveness. 

It’s difficult to describe how this system operates — it’s a unique, option-based run-heavy spread that doesn’t have many comparables at this level. The Rebels prefer to keep it on the ground (18th in rush rate) and have found many, many big plays (fourth in rushing explosiveness) as they keep defenses guessing. It’s hard to prepare for an offense you haven’t seen before and this being Marion’s first year calling plays at the FBS level is an advantage as there isn’t as much tape and prior experience for opposing teams to rely on as they do their game prep. 

It’s also difficult to prepare for when there are so many players who can beat you — Vincent Davis leads with 520 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while Jai’Den Thomas (385 rushing yards, eight touchdowns) and Donavyn Lester (388 rushing yards, eight touchdowns) aren’t far behind. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is also a threat with his legs (159 rushing yards, one touchdown).

The Wyoming Cowboys typically have a stout defense but check in at just 88th in EPA per play and 102nd in success rate. They’ve allowed over 215 rushing yards in four separate games this season and the defensive front is a bit of a weakness (119th in stuff rate, 133rd in front seven havoc). It’s far from a perfect parallel, but it’s concerning that the Cowboys were gashed for 356 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns against Air Force, another option team. 

On the flip side of things, Wyoming’s offense will look to expose a UNLV defense that hasn’t been tested much this season. The Rebels will need to run the table to have a shot at the MWC Championship game, and that will be difficult with two tough tests awaiting in Wyoming and Air Force. The Rebels have been merely decent defensively, ranking 50th in success rate by 114th in explosiveness. 

They face off against a Cowboys offense that has matched up with some difficult stop units lately (Fresno State, Air Force, Boise State), so the surface-level statistics don’t show that they’re in terrific form as they haven’t achieved 335 total yards in any of their last four games. Still, they’ve managed at least five yards per play in three of those contests and have welcomed star running back Harrison Waylee back to the fold. He handled 29 carries for 128 yards a week ago and is the focal point of the attack. This isn’t a terrific offense, but it’s been a serviceable one and that may be all we need to reach the low total of 50.5. 

UNLV’s offense has been terrifically consistent, managing at least 400 total yards and 5.2 yards per play in every game this season other than the one against Michigan. Craig Bohl’s team has a reputation for its defense but has been burned multiple times this season, so I expect the Rebels’ new-look offense to continue to find success. On the other side, Wyoming has managed at least 22 points in all but two games this season and therefore should be able to contribute to this game going Over the total. 

My best bet: Over 50.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Wyoming vs UNLV same-game parlay

Over 50.5

UNLV -5.5

+252 at DraftKings

Here’s a two-leg SGP featuring the Over and UNLV against the spread. Since UNLV is a more offensive-minded team, I do believe that these two plays are correlated. The Rebels would prefer that this game becomes a back-and-forth contest where both sides trade touchdowns as opposed to a low-scoring slogfest that Bohl desires. 

UNLV has been a wagon this season, accumulating an 8-1 ATS record. While Wyoming is no slouch, the Cowboys are much better at Laramie (6-0 straight up) than on the road (0-3). Bohl’s squad hasn’t shown the ability to play at a high level on the road, so I don’t love this spot for them on short rest against a tough UNLV team.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wyoming vs UNLV spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been a fair amount of movement for this spread, which opened at UNLV -2.5 but has since moved to -5.5 across the board. The total has remained constant since opening at 50.5. 

UNLV’s two losses have come to Michigan and Fresno State — two very tough teams. Although the Rebels lost to the Bulldogs, they’d certainly stand a chance at winning if the teams played again considering the Rebels won the yardage battle 424 to 312 but were snake-bitten by four turnovers. 

Wyoming’s resume isn’t too shabby — beginning the season with an outright upset of Texas Tech and only losing to Texas, Air Force, and Boise State.  It has taken care of business against poor competition and has mostly held its own against good teams. 

This is one of those situations where you question whether you should ride the hot hand with UNLV (8-1 ATS) or try to catch the falling knife with an inflated spread. It took a while for books to catch on that the Rebels are mightily improved in Year 1 under Barry Odom, but it’s not like they’re giving you a discount here as UNLV is favored by nearly a touchdown against a tough conference opponent. 

Wyoming vs UNLV betting trend to know

UNLV has hit the moneyline in five of their last six games at home. Find more college football betting trends for Wyoming vs UNLV.

Wyoming vs UNLV game info

Wyoming vs UNLV latest injuries

Wyoming vs UNLV weather

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