Bengals vs Steelers Predictions, Picks, Best Bets, and More for NFL Week 18

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Acrisure Stadium to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in a high-stakes showdown tonight. Kickoff comes your way at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Cincinnati's inept defense has let it down all year, which is why my Bengals vs. Steelers predictions will back Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris in Week 18.

Here are my best free NFL picks for this AFC North clash on Saturday, January 4.

Bengals vs Steelers prediction

• Moneyline: Bengals (-140 at BetMGM)
• Spread: Steelers +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Total: Under 48 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Best bet: Harris Over 45.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)

Bengals vs Steelers moneyline prediction

The Bengals need a win if they want a shot at the playoffs and they enter on a four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Steelers have lost three in a row with all of those defeats coming by double-digits. Predicted Score: Bengals win, 24-23

Bengals vs Steelers spread prediction

While I think Cincinnati will eke out a win, I expect Pittsburgh to put up a fight at home in a rivalry game. The Steelers have been a cover machine when installed as underdogs at home during the Mike Tomlin era. They beat the Bengals on the road last month and should be motivated since they don't want to back into the playoffs on a four-game skid.

Bengals vs Steelers Over/Under prediction

With an explosive offense and a struggling defense, the Bengals have been an Over machine all season. That said, this will be an extreme cold weather game which should lead to a reduction in passing for both teams. That has me leaning slightly towards the Under. 

My best bet
Najee Harris Over 45.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

The Cincinnati Bengals are the more desperate team since they need a win plus losses from Denver and Miami on Sunday to make the playoffs. The Pittsburgh Steelers could win the AFC North in the slim chance that the Ravens lose as 17-point faves on Saturday afternoon, but will likely settle for the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. 

That said, I wouldn't factor motivation too much into this matchup since head coach Mike Tomlin has dismissed the chatter about resting starters if/when the Ravens win. One of those starters who should see work is running back Najee Harris, who will be entering free agency. 

Harris has rushed for more than 50 yards in eight of his last 11 games. While he has seen his carries decline in recent weeks, that's largely been due to game script. He had 74 yards on 13 carries against Kansas City's stout run defense last week.

Now he faces a Bengals squad that is 29th in the league in defensive rush EPA and 31st in defensive rush success rate. When these teams clashed back in Week 13, Harris had 75 yards on 16 carries.

This will be an extreme cold weather game with a "feels like" temperature of seven degrees, which will make gripping the ball tough for passers. That should lead to the Steelers emphasizing their rushing attack even more than usual. 

Bengals vs Steelers same-game parlay

Najee Harris Over 45.5 rushing yards

Mike Gesicki Over 28.5 receiving yards

Steelers Alt. Spread +3.5

+290 at BetMGM

In addition to the freezing temps, winds are projected around 14 mph with gusts at 25 mph, which would affect downfield passes. The bread-and-butter of this Bengals attack is their passing game, so expect plenty of shorter throws. That should benefit TE Mike Gesicki, who has posted 30+ receiving yards in six of his last nine games and is coming off a contest where he had 10 catches for 86 yards.

If the Bengals can't attack downfield with their usual success, their offense could be hamstrung since RB Chase Brown is questionable with a sprained ankle. The Bengals' struggling offensive line is 31st in both pass block win rate and run block win rate.

Cincinnati is 27th in defensive EPA and 30th in defensive success rate while Pittsburgh is 11th and 16th in those metrics. In what will be frigid conditions, I'll push the spread past that key number of 3 and back the team that is better in the trenches and on defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Bengals vs Steelers odds

Bengals vs Steelers live odds

Bengals vs Steelers opening odds

• Spread: Cincinnati -2.5 (-120) | Pittsburgh +2.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Cincinnati -140 | Pittsburgh +120
• Over/Under: Over 48 | Under 48

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Bengals vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis

• These teams clashed five weeks ago in Cincinnati, with the Steelers winning 44-38 as 3-point underdogs.
• Since that loss to Pittsburgh, the Bengals are 4-0 straight-up and against the spread, most recently beating Denver in overtime on Sunday.
• The Steelers are coming off a 29-10 loss to the Chiefs on Christmas Day, and they are now 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games.
• The Steelers are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings between these AFC North foes.
• Covers Consensus data shows that 64% of picks like the Bengals ATS, while 54% are backing the Over.

Bengals vs Steelers betting trend to know

Since 2018, the Steelers are 13-4-1 ATS as a home underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Steelers.

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Bengals vs Steelers weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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