We're on to Week 11, where there's been a shift in the driving force of offenses — and betting NFL player props.
Early in the season, when almost every passing attack looked out of sync (who woulda thought, with basically no preseason?) it was the running game and RB props carrying success.
Now... the running well has mostly dried up, but we're seeing passing games (and wide receiver props) pick up the pace.
So my favorite Week 11 NFL props feature a red-hot WR against the league's worst pass defense, two young receivers ready to shine... and a star runner (I gotta have one) rumbling against a team ready to waive the white flag.
Latest NFL prop picks
Tillman o53.5 rec yards
(-115 at BetMGM)
Johnston long rec o20.5 yards
(-110 at bet365)
Taylor o86.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 11
Cedric Tillman Over 53.5 receiving yards
In the three games since Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo, Cedric Tillman has somewhat emerged as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns. Over that span (and mostly with Jameis Winston under center) Tillman has led the team in targets, catches, and yards — but he has also produced at a WR1 level compared to the rest of the league.
Among 38 wideouts with at least 110 snaps since Week 7 (per Pro Football Focus), Tillman in 14th in target rate, 13th in yards per route run, second in missed tackles forced, and fifth in explosive plays — resulting in yardage totals of 75, 99, and 81 yards.
This week, he and the Browns come out their bye to face the Saints, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game and further depleted a struggling secondary with the recent trade of top corner Marshon Lattimore.
Two Atlanta receivers topped 95 yards last week and two Chargers receivers posted 72 and 111 yards three weeks ago; competent passing attacks can exploit the Saints... and we know Jameis isn't shy to throw the ball.
Industry projections range as high as 63 yards for Tillman on Sunday, adding confidence that he can go past a total that seems a little low for an emerging WR1 against a bad pass defense.
Pick made on 11-15
Quentin Johnston longest reception Over 25.5 yards
Second-year wide receiver Quentin Johnston has been boom-or-bust this season, but his matchup vs. the Bengals on Sunday Night Football shows a lot of "boom" potential.
The Los Angeles Chargers WR has shown a proclivity for connecting on downfield throws, sitting second on the team in deep (20+ air yard) targets, average depth of target, and missed tackles forced while sitting eighth among all pass catchers in YAC per reception.
He also lines up on the left-side perimeter almost 70% of the time (per Pro Football Focus), which would put him primarily against Cincinnati cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, who has been routinely torched all season long.
Among 66 CBs with at least 150 perimeter coverage snaps, Britt is 61st with a 72% catch rate, 64th in explosive pass plays allowed, and dead last in yards per coverage snap. He's allowed at least one catch of 23+ yards in seven of 10 games this season and, at 5-foot-11, is giving up half a foot in height to Johnston.
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has also started throwing the ball more over the past few weeks, meaning there should be more options for Johnston to pull off a chunk play.
Pick made on 11-15
Jonathan Taylor Over 86.5 rush yards
With Anthony Richardson back under center (the latest saga in the Indianapolis Colts QB merry-go-round), the passing goes down and the running goes up.
For Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor, that's a good thing vs. the capital-b-Bad New York Jets run defense.
In the five full games with Richardson as QB, Indy attempted just under 26 passes and almost 28 rushes per game. With Flacco under center, it was 35 passes and 24 runs per contest.
That should mean more work for Taylor, who has topped 100 yards in four of his last six games, against a Jets stop unit that has allowed 134 rushing yards per game this season (eighth-most in the league) — with that number leaping to 149 ypg over the last five weeks.
Taylor is seventh in the league in runs of 10+ yards, fifth in designed runs of 15+ yards, and 20th in yards after contact — despite missing three games. The Jets are second in missed tackles (120) and third in missed-tackle rate, so it's also possible Taylor can bust off a big run or two against a sloppy second level.
Pick made on 11-14
George Pickens Over 66.5 receiving yards
It's all systems go for No. 1 receivers vs. the Baltimore Ravens right now, which means George Pickens is primed for another big game this Sunday.
I mean, have you seen how badly they're getting shredded right now?
Ja'Marr Chase dropped 264 on them last week (and 193 yards a month prior). Courtland Sutton had 122 two weeks ago, Cedric Tillman (and Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy) all had 79-99 yards before that. Davante Adams and Rashee Rice had consecutive 100-yard games in Weeks 1 and 2.
The Ravens are dead last in passing yards allowed, air yards allowed, and 20+ yard completions allowed, with star receivers doing most of the damage — and Pickens is as hot as any receiver.
In the three weeks since Russell Wilson took over as the Pittsburgh Steelers' QB1, Pickens has seen his catch rate go from 59.1% to 66.7%, his yards per target go from 8.3 to 13.1, and he posted yardage totals of 111, 74, and 91.
Wilson has not been shy in throwing deep balls — sitting third in completions, fifth in average depth of target, and 10th in yards on passes of 20+ air yards since Week 7 — and Pickens has been his main target.
Baltimore star safety Kyle Hamilton is also questionable as he hasn't practiced yet this week due to an ankle injury. His absence would only further deplete any resistance that did exist for slowing down the Pickens/Russ combo.
Pick made on 11-14
A.J. Brown Over 78.5 receiving yards
I feel like I'm missing something looks at A.J. Brown's odds for TNF. He's played in six games this season, averaging 92.2 yards per game and recording 84+ yards in five of them. The one exception is two weeks ago vs. the Jaguars, where he left midway through the game due to injury (and had 36 yards) — take away that game, and he's averaging more than 103 yards per game when he plays all four quarters.
So he needs just 80 yards to top his total tonight against the Commanders, who are not as good of a pass defense as the stats suggest: Four of Washington's last six games have been against:
- The worst version of Daniel Jones.
- Full rookie wall Caleb Williams.
- Andy Dalton.
- Deshaun Watson.
That quartet of arms totaled 523 pass yards, so naturally, no receivers shined. Against NFL-level passing attacks with a bona fide No. 1 receiver? Well, George Pickens of the Steelers logged 91 yards last week, Baltimore's Zay Flowers recorded 132 yards a month ago, and Ja'Marr Chase hit 100 yards in Week 3.
Brown went for 130 and 175 yards last year vs. Washington, torching Benjamin St-Juste in catching all four targets for 65 yards. He'll get to see plenty of St-Juste — one of the most targeted CBs in the NFL, who's allowing a 65% completion rate and the fifth-most coverage yards this year — or rookie Mike Sainristil, who has a 67% completion rate and has given up the 13th most yards after the catch.
This game currently has the highest total on the Week 11 odds board, and if there's going to be offense... expect one of the league's most dominant WRs to be involved.
Pick made on 11-14
NFL Week 11 prop betting card
- A.J. Brown Over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
- George Pickens Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Jonathan Taylor Over 86.5 rush yards (-110)
- Quentin Johnston longest reception Over 25.5 yards (-110)
- Cedric Tillman Over 53.5 receiving yards (-115)
Last week: 1-4, -3.17 units
Season: 22-28, -7.96 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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