It’s another "epic" Thursday night battle that might only be made better by betting as Easton Stick makes his first NFL start at Allegiant Stadium. He’ll lead the Los Angeles Chargers into TNF odds as 3-point road dogs vs. Aidan O’Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders.
Coming off a four-week high in route share and sitting with his lowest receiving-yard total since early October, should bettors be looking at Michael Mayer’s receiving NFL odds, especially with his opportunities?
I break down the Week 15 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Chargers vs. Raiders on December 14.
Be sure to also check out our favorite TNF player props and Austin Ekeler spotlight props!
Chargers vs Raiders odds
Chargers vs Raiders predictions
The Las Vegas Raiders might seem like a conservative offense being led by a defensive-minded coach, but it's only because they struggled to put up points despite favorable indoor conditions. However, they’re passing the ball at one of the highest rates in football at 60% with that number moving to the third-highest rate over the last three weeks at 67%.
Aidan O’Connell is averaging 35.7 passes a game over the last three games (MIN, MIA, KC) with all three of those contests heavy with neutral game script.
All this could mean some extra passing that might not be priced in with the current spread and total numbers. Josh Jacobs also exited late on Sunday and if he can’t go or is limited, that would also favor more passing.
AOC’s passing Over is at 205.5 which is well below his 220.5 last week vs. a better defense which was also a season high. For comparison. Josh Dobbs’ passing total closed at 217.5 last week in Las Vegas and he had the risk of getting pulled while also being a 3-point favorite.
This is a decent Over play vs. the No. 17 passing defense (success rate) since Week 9 but as of Tuesday, FanDuel is the only book at 205.5 while other books are at 214.5 or higher. If bettors can get him at anything below, 210, I’d suggest hitting it, but those shorter numbers should be gone by Wednesday.
I’ll feel a lot better giving out a widely available number which takes my attention to Michael Mayer.
He played 51 of 54 offensive snaps last week and had a 78% route share which ranked third on the team and was his his highest route share since early November. He only had one catch (14 yards) last week but also faced the No.1 pass defense since Week 9.
The Los Angeles Chargers are one of five teams that allow 60 or more yards to TEs per game on the season and with Mayer sitting with a total of 18.5 after closing with a receiving total in the 20s for seven straight weeks, it’s time to buy the dip on the rookie TE.
Hunter Renfrow has also seen his totals take off but Mayer is in a great spot to hit his Over on a low total coming off a down game vs. an underrated defense.
My best bet: Michael Mayer Over 18.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel) 25% live boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Chargers vs Raiders same-game parlay
Michael Mayer Over 18.5 receiving yards
Aidan O'Connell Over 205.5 passing yards
Chargers +3
It's a small correlated play here for a Raiders team that I feel is being undervalued in their passing volume. Mayer never goes off the field and can have this Over hit in two targets vs. a generous defense to opposing TEs. O'Connell has been throwing the ball nearly 37 times a game of late and the indoor setting always favors the pass. Finally, it may be a short week but it's tough to lay 3 points with the Raiders who have scored more than 18 points just twice all season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chargers vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
The Chargers were -3.5 on the look-ahead but after Justin Herbert fractured his throwing finger on Sunday, the Chargers have been bet down to +3 while the total has moved from 41.5 to 33.5 as of Tuesday morning after re-opening at 34.5.
It’s another short-week game with backup quarterbacks. Mitch Trubisky finished QB23 in QB rating from Next Gen Stats in a similar spot last week.
It will be Easton Stick making his first NFL start. He came in for an injured Herbert on Sunday in the second quarter and went 13 for 24 for 179 yards in a 24-7 loss. Only four other QBs last week had a worse CPOE than the LA starter.
He was drafted in 2019 and has been on the practice squad basically since and had attempted just one NFL pass over his career before last week. Now he has a short week to prep and the books and the market think he is worth 6.5 points worse than Herbert which would put the move at one of the biggest drops of all teams in the league.
For a comp, when the Bengals had to go from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning (before he looked good), the adjustment was from -5.5 to +2. That would put this 6.5-point move right on the same track so it’s tough to hit the Chargers based solely on the point swing.
If you’re taking the +3 or waiting possibly for a 3.5 to hit, it should be with how bad this Las Vegas offense has been. They were shut out last week at home indoors vs. Josh Dobbs and an underrated Minnesota defense.
Josh Jacobs exited last week late and is questionable. Jacobs hasn’t done a lot this season after putting a ton of miles on the tires last year in a contract season, but this offense is being led by a defensive-minded coach who still thinks this offense should go through the running back each week despite the league-worst yards per rush attempt.
Davante Adams is averaging five catches for 56.5 yards in his six games with AOC starting. His QB has a worse rating than Mac Jones on the season.
There have been a lot of games with backups this year and it isn’t easy to price or bet on the projected output. The short week isn’t helping Stick prepare, but bettors know what the Raiders have under center and it seems the markets have consistently overreacted to backup QBs all season. Even last week, the entire betting community was on a short Under in Trubisky vs. Bailey Zappe, and that Over hit before the third quarter.
My buy point in this game is at +3.5, but I’d feel a lot better betting on the Chargers and the unknown of Stick at +3 than O’Connell and this Las Vegas offense by a field goal. In their eight losses, Las Vegas is averaging 12.6 points and has scored more than 18 points just twice all season (NYG and NYJ). Stick can cover this game with 14 points.
Making matters worse for the home side, they lost their starting center in the third quarter on Sunday with an ankle injury, their starting left tackle is also questionable as is starting corner Amik Robertson but he finished Week 14’s game.
The Chargers do have plenty of names on the Monday estimation practice report but didn’t sustain any injuries vs. the Broncos on Sunday. Keenan Allen will likely rest this week as he has been on the early-week injury report all season. He did pick up a heel injury but he also set a franchise record last week with 108 catches.
Chargers vs Raiders betting notes
- Zamir White could be the No.1 if Jacobs can’t go with Ameer Abdullah liekly keeping his 3rd-down role.
- Mike Mayer had just two targets and one catch, but the rookie TE had a 94% snap share (94%) and a 76% route share.
- Hunter Renfrow is running as the No.3 in this timid offense but has 12 catches for 126 yards over his last three games.
- Stick showed off his arm on Sunday but he also has legit 4.62 wheels which is much better than Josh Allen’s 4.76 40-speed. He is as long as +1,100 to score a TD.
- No.3 Alex Erickson finished with seven targets last week but had just one catch which was in the red zone. He is also +1,100 to score and his receiving total might be worth monitoring as it has yet to open.
Chargers vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have scored first in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Raiders.
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Chargers vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Thursday, December 14, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
| Opening odds: | Raiders -2.5, O/U 34.5 |
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