The depleted Houston Texans will be looking to get back on track in Week 10 as they face the Detroit Lions, one of the best teams in the NFL.
I’ve found the best C.J. Stroud odds for Sunday’s big game, and I’ll explain them in my Texans vs. Lions predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 10.
CJ Stroud SNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 237.5 passing yards
(-110 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Under 237.5 passing yards
Under 21.5 completions
Mixon Over 81.5 rushing yards
(+450 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
CJ Stroud SNF prop pick
My best bet
Under 237.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While the Houston Texans sit atop the AFC South with a 6-3 record, they’ve been bitten by the injury bug offensively. Stroud’s top two targets in Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins are both injured. Diggs is done for the season, while Collins is questionable to play on Sunday. Houston just opened his 21-day practice window on Friday.
Since Stroud’s options are limited downfield, the Texans have been running the football a lot more. In fact, the QB has only thrown for 200+ yards once in his last four games, hitting the Over in passing yards only once during that span.
In a Week 9 loss to the Jets, the former Ohio State star completed just 11 of 30 passes for 191 yards. To make matters worse, Tank Dell is also dealing with an injury and may not feature on Sunday.
I’m not saying Stroud won’t throw the football — he will. The Detroit Lions don't have a great pass defense, but he doesn’t have a ton of go-to receivers right now. That should stop him from having a big day through the air.
CJ Stroud SNF same-game parlay
Under 237.5 passing yards
Under 21.5 completions
Joe Mixon Over 81.5 rushing yards
As previously mentioned, Stroud doesn’t exactly have a top wideout to throw the football to. Tight end Dalton Schultz will see a bigger workload in this game because there’s not much of anyone else.
That doesn’t mean the Texans won’t try to expose one of the Lions’ lone weaknesses, though. Stroud is averaging 20.8 completions per game this season but has hit the Over just once in the last four games. Again, he only completed 11 passes last weekend.
The Under completions has hit in three of the previous four outings. I don’t expect Stroud to light it up with yards or completions. That’s not to say Houston won’t keep this one competitive; it just won’t be Stroud being the star of the show.
The Texans have the 11th-best rushing offense in the league and struck gold with Joe Mixon. He’s been a major part of their success this season, rushing for 609 yards and 4.8 yards per carry, including six touchdowns.
Mixon happens to be on a heater since returning from injury in mid-October. The running back has gone Over his rushing yard total in four straight games, surpassing the 100-yard mark in every single appearance. He’s also had a touchdown in all of those matchups.
Again, Houston is going to focus on its strength, given the absences of Collins and Diggs. That strength is putting the football in Mixon's hands and letting him shine. Given the trend, I expect him to put in work against a stout Lions run defense.
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