The New York Jets’ playoff chances have quickly dwindled, and now they’ll be looking to remain mathematically alive with each passing week.
As their offense continues to sputter, it will meet an Indianapolis Colts defense that has struggled against the pass, which could deliver the break it’s been hoping for. With some uncertainty surrounding Indy’s offense which will once again be led by Anthony Richardson, are the Jets deserving favorites here?
Let's get right into our Colts vs. Jets predictions and hand out some NFL picks for November 17, 2024.
Colts vs Jets prediction
My best bet
Over 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If we know one thing, it’s that running the ball is what the Indianapolis Colts do best. They rank ninth in DVOA on the ground, and their strongest performances during this roller coaster season have come with a heavy dose of the ground game.
Indianapolis may rank 16th in rush play rate as it stands, but it’s important to remember that Anthony Richardson has effectively played five games. He was injured after just 13 snaps in Week 4 and missed two games due to injury before being benched for two games.
Under Richardson, this is a much better offense – and one that is heavily predicated on the run. That’s where things get interesting.
The New York Jets run defense has looked like the worst in the league, and a 27th-place ranking in DVOA may even be generous. Teams are running nearly 50% of the time on them – the third-highest clip in the NFL – and that should give us assurance here that the Colts have a way in on offense.
All hope shouldn’t be lost for New York, however, entering into a similarly friendly matchup. As it continues to throw more and more with every passing week, it should finally look like a competent side once again against a middling defense that has been weighed down by a 22nd-ranked DVOA against the pass.
With the Jets passing at the fourth-highest clip against a porous secondary and the Colts incentivized to run the ball at one of the weaker front sevens around, the conditions for points should be great here, and there’s a reason why oddsmakers are expecting some points.
Colts vs Jets same-game parlay
Over 43.5
Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown
Tyler Conklin Over 22.5 receiving yards
We laid out the struggles of the Jets’ rushing defense above, and while many will flock to Jonathan Taylor’s yardage prop, I’m a bigger fan of taking him to score.
It's not as much about the chunk plays with the Jets that will hurt them as much as it’s the volume. These drives for the Colts should consist of plenty of runs against a team allowing nearly a 50% rush play rate, and that means when the ball gets down near the goal line the rock should go to Taylor.
The Jets rank third-worst with 1.4 rushing TDs allowed per game and 18th in red zone defense, and I expect Taylor to be the latest to punish them.
Then we’ll target the Colts’ secondary with Tyler Conklin, who has struggled to get involved in recent weeks but has done a lot when he’s been included in the game plan. That should be the case against a team ranked 24th in DVOA against the tight end position and one which the Jets should look to throw on all game long.
Conklin’s averaging almost nine yards per catch this year and has caught three or more balls in half of his 10 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colts vs Jets odds
Colts vs Jets live odds
Colts vs Jets opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-110) | New York -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indianapolis (+145) | New York (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 44 (-110) | Under 44 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colts vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Jets initially dipped down to three-point favorites but have since taken on enough money to move them back to the opening line and up to four.
- A hefty 65% of the bets and 68% of the money is on the Colts to cover.
- The total spiked a full point to 45 initially but was bet down to 43.5 on Wednesday. After coming back up to 44 points, it’s settled back down at 43.5.
- The Under has accounted for 67% of the tickets but just 72% of the handle.
Colts vs Jets betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Jets.
Colts vs Jets game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Colts vs Jets latest injuries
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