It's been a rather precarious start to the season for both the Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals, but with a chance to build some momentum with a big win on Monday Night Football, you can be sure we'll get both teams' best efforts.
While my Commanders vs Bengals predictions may seem a bit one-sided, I can assure you the bigger picture is far clearer than the mess we've seen from the Bengals through two weeks.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Monday Night Football on September 23.
Commanders vs Bengals MNF predictions
- Bengals -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Under 46.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Higgins anytime touchdown (+140 at bet365)
- Burrow 2+ passing touchdowns (-145 at bet365)
Commanders vs Bengals MNF best bets
Bengals -7.5
The Cincinnati Bengals enter Monday Night Football at a very important point in their season. Sure, the casual fan will say it's only been two weeks, but teams that start 0-3 are almost guaranteed to miss the postseason altogether. Dating back to 1979, teams that lose the first three games of the season make the playoffs just 2.5% of the time.
While I know the Bengals can't clinch a playoff birth with a win tonight vs. the Commanders, they can put themselves in a better spot to do so.
When you look at the Bengals through the first two games, they were in two tough spots. In Week 1, Ja'Marr Chase and his contract issues were a complete distraction and the team suffered. In Week 2, the defense held firm against the two-time defending Super Bowl champions (on the road, no less) and were a PI call away from possibly winning the game.
Now, they get a home date with the Washington Commanders, a team that miraculously won a football game while not scoring a touchdown. This team is a 0-2 team through and through, and I believe they'll show their true colors here tonight.
That should be music to Joe Burrow's ears, especially since he'll have his favorite red zone target back in Tee Higgins, which will, in turn, free up Ja'Marr Chase from double/triple teams.
It's the perfect storm for the Bengals on MNF to right the ship and show just how raw Jayden Daniels is as a rookie QB on the road.
Under 46.5
If this game goes how I expect it to go, I believe only one team will do the bulk of the scoring, and that's the Bengals.
The Bengals' defense has been solid through two weeks — despite the 0-2 record — giving up just 295.5 yards of total offense (seventh), 128.5 passing yards (first), and just 30.4% on third-down (eighth). This is a team that should have no issues confusing Jayden Daniels at the line of scrimmage and forcing him into a few mistakes.
I've got this game pegged as a 28-10 type of game, which leaves plenty of wiggle room for the Under to cash.
Tee Higgins anytime touchdown
While it may seem like a bit of a risk to back a player returning from injury to score a touchdown, all signs point to Higgins being 100% healthy and ready to go at full capacity.
With that said, he's Burrow's favorite red zone target and has hauled in 19 TDs in 47 games with Burrow under center. That's a pretty solid clip for a QB1/WR2 combination.
With much of the focus on Ja'Marr Chase and the volume of targets he sees, Higgins can — and usually does — make the most of his opportunities with limited targets.
Given how bad the Commanders' secondary has been, Burrow should have no issues finding Higgins for a score in his return.
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Joe Burrow Over 1.5 touchdown passes
I swear to you, I'm not a Bengals super fan.
But with all the talk above about the awful Washington secondary, how can we pass this up?
The return of Higgins gives Burrow another target, and with their season (pretty much) on the line, it's time for the Cincy QB to elevate his game and take matters into his own hands.
The Commanders don't generate enough of a pass rush to disrupt Burrow's time in the pocket, and with just two sacks on the year, I expect him to stay clean throughout.
Two touchdown passes is very much in the cards for Joe Shiesty tonight.
Commanders vs Bengals odds
Commanders vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 9-23-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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