The NFC East rivalry between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys always finds its way to the prime-time lights. This season, the classic divisional grudge match heads to Thursday Night Football in Week 4.
Which players will shine brightest on the big stage?
I dig into the touchdown anytime markets and pick a potential TD scorer holding value for each team, giving my best NFL picks and Cowboys vs. Giants predictions on September 26.
Dallas Cowboys anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Jalen Tolbert anytime touchdown (+400 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
The Dallas Cowboys’ scoring is spotty and if not for a late surge against the Ravens last Sunday, this offense would be ranking lower than it already is.
Dallas is most dangerous in the deep passing game, coming into Week 4 with 10 plays of 20 or more yards. And it just so happens that the New York Giants defense has been burned for the same amount of home run passes (10) through three games, tied for fourth most in the NFL.
Star receiver CeeDee Lamb is always the first look but another target gaining confidence and chemistry with QB Dak Prescott is Jalen Tolbert. After putting in a very strong training camp this summer, Tolbert is a close third among the WRs in snap counts and tied for second on the team in targets, including two red-zone looks.
The third-year WR is a threat in both the downfield attack as well as RZ packages, catching 10 of 16 throws for 136 yards and a touchdown. He has a 39-yard strike on his 2024 resume and scored on a 15-yard connection in garbage time last Sunday.
Player projections for Tolbert have his touchdown chances ranging from 0.15 to 0.3 TDs on Thursday night, with my number giving him about a 21% shot of finding paydirt. FanDuel currently has him listed at +400 (20% implied probability), giving a little extra value to a WR finding his place in this offense.
New York Giants anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Daniel Jones anytime touchdown (+290 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
If you listen to Covers.com’s weekly "Sharp 600" podcast, New York Giants signal-caller Daniel Jones was my TD anytime selection for Week 4. The QB is one of the more mobile passers in the league and could find himself on the run a lot tonight.
On top of the designed run calls and RPO sets that give Jones carries, we’ll also witness him tucking and running several times against a Dallas defense that loves to bring the blitz.
The Cowboys rush extra bodies on nearly 29% of opponents’ dropbacks and currently own the highest generated pressure rate in the pros (41%). For his career, Jones hasn't been a great passer under pressure but is rated among the best running quarterbacks when feeling the heat.
Dallas has already given up two touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. Saints QB Derek Carr snuck in a keeper on the goal line in Week 2’s wash versus New Orleans and the Ravens’ dual-threat god Lamar Jackson waltzed into the end zone untouched on an RPO keeper in Week 3.
The Cowboys’ main focus when backed inside the red zone will be shutting down rookie WR Malik Nabers, who's become Jones’ first, second, and third option. That could leave the QB having to make a play with his legs. What’s more, he’s a viable option on QB sneaks when on the goal line.
Jones’ touchdown models range from 0.17 to 0.3 rushing TDs in Week 4, with my projection giving him a 30% shot at crossing the goal line. His TD anytime prop was as low as +240 and as high as +300 but is now at +290 entering Thursday Night Football.
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