The Miami Dolphins head north to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in the Thanksgiving finale on Thursday, November 28.
Miami and quarterback Tua Tagovolia haven’t fared well in colder temperature games over the years, and our early Dolphins vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks anticipate that trend continuing on Thursday.
Dolphins vs Packers predictions
Early spread lean
Packers -3.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
There are two huge factors working in favor of the Green Bay Packers with a short turnaround from Week 12 to the Thanksgiving nightcap against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday.
First, it's a home game for the Pack at Lambeau Field, and the weather forecast is calling for freezing temperatures. I give an edge to Green Bay’s experience playing at home in wintry conditions over the visiting Dolphins.
Fins win. Next up at Green Bay on Thanksgiving (catch it on @nbc6 !) Tua says he’s ready to kill some narratives
— Giselle Espinales (@GiselleSports) November 24, 2024
(Tua Tagovailoa has a 0-7 record when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder 🥶) pic.twitter.com/FQqFkqu80x
Secondly, Green Bay dominated the time of possession against the 49ers on Sunday, with the Packers playing just 49 defensive snaps across 23:17.
I do value the improvement in the Miami offense through five games since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from a concussion in Week 8, but both of the highlighted Green Bay advantages mitigate any real advantage Miami actually has offensively.
The Packers are ninth in EPA per play and seventh in EPA per dropback, and quarterback Jordan Love has aired it out for a rock-solid 8.0 yards per attempt and 9.7 aDoT.
Green Bay won't keep Miami off the board, but the Packers are going to score enough to pull away on Thursday night.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
In addition to the Green Bay defense being rested, the Miami defense has been playing well.
Sure, slowing down the Rams, Raiders, and Patriots probably don’t carry huge weight, but you can only beat who’s on your schedule, and the Dolphins have surrendered the fifth-lowest EPA per play the past three weeks while allowing just 16.3 points per game.
Green Bay has also allowed just 20.3 points per game for the season, including just 14.5 per its past two. I also value an early move coming in on the Under, and while it hasn’t moved the number at FanDuel, I wouldn’t be surprised if this total dropped before kickoff.
After all, the Packers are third in rushing yards per game (151.6) and will be looking to keep the clock ticking — and keep the Dolphins offense on the sidelines — to dominate the time of possession once again.
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Dolphins vs Packers live odds
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