The Miami Dolphins head north on a short week to face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field for the Thanksgiving Day finale on Thursday, November 28.
It’s no secret Miami and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have struggled in colder temperatures, and my Dolphins vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks anticipate the trend continuing and Green Bay improving to 9-3 with the help of a big night from running back Josh Jacobs.
Dolphins vs Packers TNF prediction
My best bet
Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs has recorded 90 or more yards from scrimmage in nine of 11 games for an average of 102.7 per, and he’s handled double-digit carries in all but one game this season.
Add Jacobs coming off a rested effort with his second-lowest snap share (52%) while also posting his highest PFF rushing grade of the season, and I’m anticipating another busy and productive night for the go-to rusher.
It’s also a short week with travel for the Miami Dolphins defense, and while it's a stop unit trending in the right direction, the Pack are an uptick in class.
Miami is expected to be without starting inside linebacker Anthony Walker (hamstring), too, and the Dolphins posted their second-lowest PFF tackle grade last week against the basement-dwelling New England Patriots to drop to the third-lowest mark for the campaign.
Jacobs is also thriving in a winning environment with a career-high 3.58 yards after contact per rushing attempt and yards after the catch (10.0), while also posting his highest breakaway percentage (23.7%) and yards per catch (8.1) since his rookie year.
Additionally, leaning on Jacobs and the running game has been part and parcel to winning for the Packers. Green Bay will look to win the time-of-possession battle and keep the Miami offense and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa chilling on the sidelines.
The Packers rank third in the NFL in time of possession at home (33:07), thanks largely in part to Jacobs.
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Dolphins vs Packers TNF same-game parlay
Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards
Packers moneyline
Tua Tagovailoa Over 240.5 passing yards
As noted, this is a quick turnaround for the Dolphins, while the Pack are coming off a statement home win in which they controlled the ball for 36:43 and doubled up the San Francisco 49ers with 22 first downs to 11. The Green Bay defense only hit the field for 49 plays, too.
As noted, Tagovailoa has also struggled in frigid temperatures with a 0-7 record when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder, and the weather forecast is calling for the coldest game of the season at Lambeau Field on Thursday night.
The Pack are also rolling with the ninth-highest EPA per play, including ranking seventh in EPA per dropback, and QB Jordan Love has tossed it around for an impressive 8.0 yards per attempt and a 9.7 aDoT.
Finally, as noted, I do expect Green Bay to control the clock and to keep Tagovailoa watching, waiting and chasing the game.
Still, the Miami offense and Tagovailoa are heating up, and the fifth-year signal caller has averaged 28.5 completions for 302.5 yards with 8.0 yards per attempt the past two weeks. Miami is third in EPA per dropback and dropback success rate during the run, and I’m anticipating Tagovailoa needing to air it out again as a road underdog Thursday.
Green Bay is also likely to be without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee), and Tagovailoa is sporting a career-high completion percentage (73.3%) and adjusted completion percentage (79.8%). He’s been picking apart defenses, and there’s also potential for further statistical correction with his year-long 7.6 YPA and 6.0 aDoT trailing his numbers from each of the past two seasons.
Finally, I also value the Packers ranking 24th in PFF pass rush grade and 27th in pass-rush win rate because I expect Tagovailoa to have time behind center to spread the ball around to his talented pass-catching corps.
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Dolphins vs Packers odds
Dolphins vs Packers live odds
Dolphins vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: Miami +3.5 | Green Bay -3.5
- Moneyline: Miami +164 | Green Bay -196
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Dolphins vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Green Bay -3 was available for a stretch at FanDuel before the shop returned to the opening -3.5 spread. However, with the higher vig attached to Miami +3.5 as of Wednesday morning, I wouldn’t be surprised if Packers -3 became available again.
- I’m a buyer at Green Bay -3. Love and the offense has a wealth of weapons to control the time of possession, and the Pack defense is rested and playing a second consecutive home game.
- This total hasn’t moved off the opening 47.5 at FanDuel, although the vig has moved to the Under (-102/-120) as of Wednesday morning.
- Miami has played improved defense of late and surrendered the fifth-lowest EPA per play while allowing just 16.3 points per game the past three weeks.
Dolphins vs Packers betting trend to know
Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs has recorded 90 or more yards from scrimmage in nine of 11 games this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Packers.
How to watch Dolphins vs Packers
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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