Flacco-mania returns home tonight as Joe Flacco and the 10-5 SU Cleveland Browns look to stay near the top of the AFC standings as they welcome the New York Jets as a touchdown favorite to kick off the Week 17 slate in TNF odds.
After the Jets’ 30-point outburst last week was aided by Sam Howell’s errors, is Thursday night the time to get back to fading the Jets’ offense in the NFL odds with Trevor Siemian likely under center?
I break down the Week 17 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Jets vs. Browns on December 28.
Be sure to also check out our three favorite Jets vs Browns prop picks and our Amari Cooper spotlight!
Jets vs Browns odds
Jets vs Browns predictions
The New York Jets scored more than 13 points for just the second time across their last nine games in Week 16 and needed to face the worst defense in football to do so. This week will be an infinitely more difficult challenge as they have to move the ball vs. the No.1 defense in success rate with less time to prepare for it.
New York hung 30 points last week but still managed just 4.5 yards per play — just a little better than its season average of 4.3, which ranks 30th in the league. They capitalized on a trio of turnovers and still only went 2-for-5 in the red zone. It’s a tough spot for this offense to put up more than 14 points, which is something it’s failed to do in 10 of 15 games on the season.
It’s looking like Trevor Siemian again this week as Zach Wilson deals with a concussion. As of Tuesday, Wilson is still in the league’s five-step protocol. Siemian finished last week as QB No.31 in CPOE with an expected completion rate eight points below expected. He also finished 28th in QB rating and 34th in average intended air yards at 3.3 yards, per Next Gen Stats.
Siemian didn’t take a sack in Week 16 but that will change Thursday vs. a Cleveland Browns defense that is a Top-5 unit in pressure percentage and QB hit percentage. The likely starter has a true completion percentage of 51.4%, a deep-ball completion rate of 14.3%, and a completion rate of 20% when under pressure across 88 throws on the season, per PlayerProfiler.
It’s a battle of the worst offense vs. the best defense, which is also allowing a league-best 13.1 points per game at home on the season.
Don’t be fooled by the 30-point output last week. Sam Howell might have had the worst game by any starting QB all season and the difference between this Cleveland defense and Washington's is 30 teams.
My best bet: New York Jets team total Under 13.5 (-104 at FanDuel) 25% live boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Jets vs Browns same-game parlay
Jets team total Under 13.5
Jerome Ford anytime TD
David Njoku Over 49.5 receiving yards
The Jets team total Under is starting to fall and it could hit 12.5, which would be a no-play on my end.
Jerome Ford is getting all the work between the 20s and even took four of the nine RB red-zone carries last week, which he turned into one score.
The Jets are much easier to run on and the game script and possible weather should keep the 15-carry back busy. David Njoku has 31 targets over the last three games and the Browns are chucking the ball. Amari Cooper will have a tough matchup with the New York DBs, so the passing offense could go through the TE on Thursday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jets vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
The Browns were -5.5 on the look-ahead, reopened at -7, and have bounced around between -6 and -7 early in the week as there is resistance on the -7. It doesn’t look like there will be any 7.5s here so there is no need to wait. The best number to back the Jets is at +7 while bettors wanting the home team might be able to find something under a touchdown. The total reopened at 36.5 after sitting as low as 34.5 on the look-ahead.
This is about as bad a spot as the New York offense will have all season. It’s a short week vs. arguably the best defense in football that is even better at home. Siemian and Jets are coming off a 30-point outing but the likely Week 17 starter was one of the worst quarterbacks statistically last week.
New York managed a paltry 4.5 yards per play vs. the worst defense in Washington and only went 2-for-5 in the red zone. Cleveland can key on Garrett Wilson with a secondary that could get starting safety Juan Thornhill back after he's missed three straight games. He was limited on Monday’s estimated practice report. The Cleveland pass defense ranks as the best unit since Week 9 in success rate and EPA/dropback.
That would leave Breece Hall likely to see some stacked boxes as the running back ranks 32nd among RBs in average defenders seen in the box at 6.8 which is why he ranks 52nd in true yards per carry at 3.6 (0.6 fewer than the league average), per PlayerProfiler.
The Browns have done nothing but pass the ball with Joe Flacco, who has attempted at least 40 passes in each of his four starts where he is 3-1 straight up, against the spread, and O/U. He has found success with Cooper and Njoku and the 65% pass rate over the last three weeks is one of the highest rates in the league over that stretch.
Kareem Hunt is dealing with a groin injury so it could be Ford’s backfield again after a 15-carry 25-yard outing last week where he found the end zone. It could be a game where the ground attack is needed more with a 47% chance of rain and 40-degree temperatures.
Cooper has a tough matchup vs. the elite New York corners so I do think this could be a big game for Njoku who has 31 targets, 22 catches, and 234 yards with four scores over his last three games. New York is a Bottom-7 defense at defending the position.
I like the Browns here and think they can cover the -6 or -6.5 by scoring at least 20 points. This is a terrible spot for the New York offense that was not a 30-point offense last week despite the scoreboards saying otherwise. I’ll also be looking to take Njoku at Over 52 yards or shorter and Ford to score a TD at +140 or better.
If Wilson does clear protocol, this could close at 6.5 compared to a possible high of 7.0 with Siemian.
Jets vs Browns betting trend to know
The Cleveland Browns have hit the moneyline in seven of their last eight games at home (+8.65 Units / 53% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Browns.
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Jets vs Browns game info
| Location: | FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, December 28, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime or NBC |
| Opening odds: | Browns -6.5, O/U 36.5 |
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Jets vs Browns weather
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