NFL Picks

Kansas City has looked for ways to involve rookie receiver Xavier Worthy more of late, and he’s led all Chiefs receivers in offensive snaps in each of the past two games. Worthy has also rushed 15 times for 84 yards (5.6 per tote) and three scores this season. So, the real risk is just whether or not he’s going to have a rushing opportunity or not. I’m expecting he will because it’s been working for the Chiefs. Plus, Worthy has received a handoff in 10 of 14 games, including four of the past five, and he had three carries for 30 yards and a score last week against the Cleveland Browns.

Houston has played zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate (72.6%) in the NFL, and Kansas City wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has garnered a team-high 21.6% target rate against zone looks with 34 receptions for 390 yards. Hopkins has caught four or more passes in six of the past seven games while piling up 33 receptions on 48 targets for an average of 4.7 receptions and 6.9 targets per game. I’m also expecting the Chiefs to have to stay active in the passing game because I’m anticipating the Texans having success on offense and keeping this game competitive.

Mixon sits 10^th in total rushing attempts despite playing in only 11 games due to injury. He’s made the most of those carries, running for 910 yards – including seven games of 100-plus gains on the ground. Kansas City’s run defense has gotten pushed around in recent weeks, allowing 538 total rushing yards over the past five games, with foes picking up 4.4 yards per carry. Last week, Cleveland carried the ball just 21 times for 139 yards rushing. Mixon’s models range from 69 yards to a ceiling of 87 yards against the Chiefs, with my number coming out to 78 yards on the ground from the veteran RB. That’s well beyond his rushing yard total for Week 16, with the Over/Under at 60.5 yards.

The Houston Texans may stand tall as the top passing defense in the NFL, but that hasn’t necessarily meant opponents have been hesitant to throw the ball. In fact, with their offense rounding into form and the defense also ranking first against the run, teams have fallen behind and have been forced to find a way through this secondary. Houston has allowed 40+ passing attempts in three of its last four games with an average of 40.8 per contest, and that should further incentivize the Chiefs to choose this course of action. We’ll dive further into the limited damage Mahomes should ultimately inflict, but the key thing to know is that his attempts have come very close to the line of scrimmage, helping write the script for a high volume of throws as Kansas City looks to move the ball downfield.

Mixon has topped 100 rushing yards in seven of 11 games this season, and this is also his lowest total in this market since closing at 50.5 in Week 6 against the New England Patriots. The reason we’ve landed this low total is because Kansas City has allowed the fewest rushing yards and second-lowest yards per carry (3.66) to opposing running backs this season. Still, the Chiefs have been gashed for the third-highest yards per carry (5.32) the past three weeks, and Texans QB C.J. Stroud and the passing attack will keep the KC defense honest and unable to focus solely on slowing down Mixon.

With Wentz under center, the Chiefs finally have something to rally around after being stuck on cruise control for the better part of the schedule. Let’s not dismiss this defense, which has fallen off in recent weeks but is still among the most disruptive in the land. Steve Spagnuolo blitzes the balls of rival QBs and owns the sixth highest pressure rate per dropback in the land. Kansas City may have only 32 sacks on the season but ranks Top 5 in both hurries and QB hits. That aggressive scheme will overwhelm a Houston offensive line that has struggled with injuries and inconsistency the past two seasons. The Texans are 25th in pass block win rate, allowing second-year passer C.J. Stroud to a feel the third highest rate of pressure which has boiled down to a league-high 58 hurries, 39 hits, 45 sacks, and a partridge in a pear tree.

When it comes to picking a touchdown scorer against the Ravens we need to consider the defense that we’re facing. Nobody in the NFL has given up fewer rushing yards than the Baltimore Ravens and they’ve managed to do a good job of shutting down opposing running backs this year. The former Charger is slowly becoming part of this offense and has four receptions on six targets through the past two weeks. Given his 6”3 frame he should be a danger in the red zone and we’ve seen earlier in his career that he can be a major threat inside the 20. You’re getting big +400 odds on him scoring here, which feels like a good play.

The first five games of the season saw Andrews go scoreless. That led to reports that the 29-year-old was washed and no longer a key part of the offense. How foolish that looks now after the former Oklahoma man scored eight touchdowns in the nine following games. Even with that spell at the start of the season, we’re seeing Andrews average just shy of four targets per game. Not only that but he’s been hugely efficient, catching 10 of his 12 red zone targets with eight of those catches turning into touchdowns. That’s far more effective than teammate Isaiah Likely who has one less target but five fewer touchdowns. Andrews gets a huge chunk of the red zone offense for the Ravens and his 12 targets measure well when combined with the 13 that Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers have combined. 

The Steelers is a nasty schedule spot in Week 16, on a short week for their second straight road game and fourth away game in the past five outings. Pittsburgh’s defense could be without TJ Watt and is gassed after playing 40 minutes in that squash against the Eagles, which wasn’t even as close as the one-sided score indicated. Baltimore one of best 1H teams in the league, winning 9 of 15 1Hs while the Steelers won’t have the energy for a second-half surge. 

Wilson cooked in his first two outings in the black and gold, averaging 271 passing yards per game with four total touchdowns. In his last six starts, he’s only gone Over 206.5 passing yards twice - he threw for 205 against Baltimore in Week 11. It’s gotten even worse as of late after rewinding the clock and dicing up the Bengals’ horrific defense to the tune of 414 passing yards on December 1, he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games. In those two games against the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles, he averaged a measly 143 passing yards. The massive drop-off coincides with the loss of star WR George Pickens. Wilson’s favorite moonball target has been out the last two games and will miss this matchup too. Without Pickens, it’s going to be hard to hit the Over with Pittsburgh’s motley crew of wide receivers.

Henry is still clearly an effective contact hitter, picking up chunk yards, but the home runs have dissipated in recent weeks. I don’t think he’ll be able to pop one out of M&T Bank Stadium against the Steelers like he’s Crush Davis. Pittsburgh is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL (94.4) and ranks No. 9 in EPA per rush on defense since Week 3. Both Watt (22) and Cameron Hayward (29) rank top 10 in run stops at their respective positions, too. While I think Henry will get close to this number, I don’t think he’s going to rip off a patented jaw-dropping explosive run to put him over the top against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Jackson sits fifth in the league in passing yards (3,580) and leads all QBs in rushing yards (743). The former Heisman winner is averaging well over this 274.5 combined passing and rushing yards line (308.8) and has cleared it in eight of his last 10 games - he’s topped it with passing yards alone in seven of them. While Pittsburgh’s defense is among the best in the NFL, it’s allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game (222.3). In its last three games, it allowed both Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts to top this number. He’s also the only player in the NFL with more than 16 big-time throws (22) and fewer than 10 turnover-worthy plays (8) - plus, he’s top 20 in missed tackles forced (36). So even with TJ Watt being healthy enough to play, the Louisville product should still be capable of putting up MVP numbers.

This is a sweet schedule spot for the Ravens, and I don't think their rest advantage is fully accounted for in this spread. Baltimore had a bye in Week 14, and then the Ravens were able to coast to a 35-14 victory over the New York Giants with backups playing extra snaps on both sides of the ball in Week 15. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, had played four consecutive division games before their 27-13 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Pittsburgh offense has also ranked 28th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate without wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring) the past two weeks, and the defense could be without T.J. Watt (ankle) in Week 16. 

With David Mongtomery sidelined for the rest of the season, the Lions will need to find a new go-to man inside the red zone. While all eyes will be on Amon-Ra St. Brown, second-year tight end Sam LaPorta is my answer for a big day against the Chicago Bears. Although LaPorta has endured somewhat of a sophomore slump, he was targeted a season-high 10 times in last week's loss to Buffalo, racking up 111 receiving yards on seven receptions. Detroit will look to take out its frustration on a Chicago defense that has been generous to the position, ranking 30th in receiving yards to opposing TEs. Look for Jared Goff to look LaPorta's way early and often inside the 20s.

Any concern about A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts' so-called "rift" was put to bad last week as the All-Pro wideout was targeted 11 times and caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown in a convincing 27-13 win over Pittsburgh. More of a track meet will be expected on Sunday when the Eagles take on the Washington Commanders, who love to play aggressively and push the ball downfield with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. Brown will be a good counter to the Commanders' offense, as the three-time Pro Bowler specializes in exploiting blitz packages, targeted at a Top-15 rate when defenses bring the heat. Facing a Washington defense that ranks 23rd in coverage grade at PFF, I'm backing Brown to have a field day in Landover. 

OC Zac Robinson should keep the game plan simple for Michael Penix Jr. in his NFL debut, featuring a run-heavy approach for Bijan Robinson. The star running back is fresh off his best outing of the season, carrying the ball 22 times for 125 yards against Las Vegas. The former first-round pick is set for arguably an even bigger day in Week 16 as he's set to face Giants defense surrendering 4.9 yards per carry, trailing only Carolina for the league-worst mark. At an O/U of 91.5, I'd consider laddering Robinson to 100+ and 125+ in rushing milestones. The Falcons should lead early and have the game script in their favor against a New York side that has lost nine in a row. 

Injuries are piling up for the Lions who are now missing their best edge rusher, best linebacker, top corner, and a starting defensive tackle. They also lost RB David Montgomery who has helped give Detroit's offense much-needed balance. These division rivalries are often tougher than expected and Lions QB Jared Goff has a history of underperforming in cold weather. Meanwhile, Bears QB Caleb Williams has been inconsistent but has played significantly better at home where he has a passer rating of 97.5.

Barkley has eclipsed 100 yards in nine of 14 starts this season, including tallying 146 yards on 26 carries in the first meeting against the Washington Commanders. Although he had a bit of a down game last week with just 65 yards on 19 carries, he was facing an elite Pittsburgh Steelers stop unit. Meanwhile, Washington has already allowed 96+ yards to James Conner, Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, and Barkley in 2024. Bank on Saquon to flex his muscles early and often in this NFC East clash. 

While the Jets are allowing just 5.2 yards per play, an elite number in the NFL, they are allowing a relatively poor 23.2 ppg, seemingly finding the worst times to allow big plays and long drives. The Rams and quarterback Matthew Stafford will be ready to take advantage of those opportunities. A dreary outing in a 12-6 win over the 49ers has depressed L.A.’s offensive numbers, but that came on the heels of a 44-point outburst against Buffalo. In the four games before that trip to San Fran, Stafford threw for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, and is likely to add to those numbers on what looks like a good weather day in New Jersey on Sunday. The Jets have hit the Over in four straight games as they trend towards higher-scoring football, and the Rams also went Over the total in three of four before last Thursday’s debacle. Both the matchup and the trends are pointing clearing in the same direction, which is why I’m taking the Over in this game.

The Tennessee Titans only put up 10, 14, and 20 points in Rudolph’s three starts this season. Also, there is a possibility that the Titans could be without Tony Pollard, who left last week early with an ankle injury. He missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday and is listed as questionable. If the Titans are down Pollard, I just cannot see them putting up any sort of offense in this contest. Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson should be able to find plenty of running room against a Titans defense that struggles with scrambling quarterbacks. The Titans have allowed the sixth most scramble yards to quarterbacks in the NFL this season. 

Cleveland ranks 31st in DVOA and EPA per play, and while the Brownies have teeth on defense, there hasn’t been a stop unit to truly cool the Bengals this season. Cincy is fifth in points per game (28.5), EPA per play and eighth in yards per play (5.8). The Bengals also sport a middling 17th rank in DVOA. Defense has been a clear weakness for Cincinnati, but I’m not anticipating the Dorian Thompson-Robinson led Browns to fully capitalize on Sunday. This is a lost season for Cleveland, and the Browns have a dreadful 4-10 record against the spread and have covered the number just a single time through their past six games. The Browns also have just a single win on the highway all season, and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the equally flawed Jacksonville Jaguars.

James Conner remains as dependable as ever in the backfield, and the Arizona Cardinals veteran is set to thrive in an even bigger role on Sunday. Backup RB Trey Benson is currently banged up with an ankle and third-stringer Emari Demecado has been placed on IR. Benson saw a 13% snap share last week and 33% in Week 14. Conner has cleared this prop in back-to-back games, tallying 20+ touches in each contest. He also leads the league in missed tackles and ranks second in rushes of 10+ yards (31), trailing only Saquon Barkley. Facing a Carolina Panthers defense that allows a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry, Conner should easily surpass this O/U.

Robinson is one of the premier receiving backs in the NFL, and he ranks third in receptions (54) and receiving yards (411) among backs. The New York Giants has been surprisingly competent against the pass, but I expect Penix to check the ball down to his star back to get some easy completions. Over his last eight games, Robinson has averaged 19.4 carries for 90.3 rushing yards and 4.1 receptions for 31.3 receiving yards. He eclipsed 125 rushing + receiving yards in five of those eight, including two of his last three. The Giants have been gashed by the run this season, surrendering the second-most rushing yards to opponents at 143.7. New York surrendered 170 rushing yards in its last game out, and Atlanta will look to exploit this favorable matchup, control the clock, and take the pressure off of Penix.

The Giants could be left with Tim Boyle under center as their clown car of QBs continues to skid out of control. And speaking of clown QBs, it looks like the Falcons don’t trust Kirk Cousins to throw the ball anymore. He passed just 17 times against Vegas on Monday, completing 11 of those attempts for 112 yards. Any gains made by these offenses will be short passes and handoffs, which keep the clock ticking. 

Seahawks QB Geno Smith limps into Week 16 after a scary knee injury that many thought would end his 2024. However, Smith is back at practice and prepping for this aggressive pass rush. His lack of mobility will be exploited by the Vikings and Smith sees his passing metrics slide when under pressure, with a completion rate short of 57% and 11 of his total 13 interceptions coming while feeling the heat. Not helping things is a rash of ailments to the guys around Geno. Running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are questionable, top WR D.K. Metcalf is fighting through a shoulder injury, and safety blanket TE Noah Fant is limited by a knee injury. Seattle will lean into Mike Macdonald’s defense to keep it close on Sunday. The Seahawks struggled to grasp their new coach’s concepts early into the schedule but have been among the strongest stop units in the NFL since Week 9.

The 22-year-old has taken the NFL by storm, entering the weekend eighth in league receiving yards (968) and having been targeted 10+ times in three of his last five starts. Currently sitting third in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, Bowers has already eclipsed Sam LaPorta for the rookie record in tight end receptions, and he's only 108 yards shy of usurping Mike Ditka's mark for the most receiving yards by a TE in his rookie year. The Jacksonville Jaguars have also been torched by TEs this season, ranking dead-last in yards allowed to the position. History could be made on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. 

Cooper is just a week removed from turning 14 targets into six catches for 95 yards, so I'm not overreacting to the zeros across his Week 15 box score. It's actually provided a great buy-low opportunity. This 34.5 receiving yards total is his lowest over the past two seasons, and he’s cleared the benchmark in 18 of 28 games dating back to the beginning of last year. It's a solid matchup against New England, too. The Pats have surrendered the second-highest EPA per dropback and fourth-highest dropback success rate while allowing a healthy 7.37 yards per target to opposing quarterbacks and 8.24 YPA to opposing wide receivers. Cooper cashes in on the bounce-back spot in Week 16.

This is a low total for Bourne. The Pats are a massive underdog, and the Bills haven’t been particularly stingy against the pass. Buffalo has surrendered the second-highest catch percentage to opposing wide receivers for a healthy 8.27 yards per target, and Bourne has 30 or more receiving yards in each of his past five games for an average of 44.8 per while hauling in 18 of 22 targets. 

The Dolphins defense is dreadful and has been especially soft over the last three showings. Miami has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play and ranks 26^th in EPA allowed per snap since Week 13. What’s more, Miami doesn’t bring much pressure and mixes zone and man coverage in the secondary. It’s notably vulnerable in zone schemes, ranking 30^th in team coverage rate at PFF. Purdy is one of the best QBs in the league versus zone defense, owning the No. 1 passer rating against those schemes. As for the San Francisco stop unit, it got key bodies back last week and should be even stronger in Week 16. Dre Greenlaw made his return last Thursday and DE Joey Bosa was back as well.

With O’Connell under center, Turner’s aggressive playcalling has proved potent and should have little trouble testing the Jags porous pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed the most “home run” plays on the season, with 63 completions of 20 or more yards allowed – 13 for 40-plus. It sits dead last in EPA allowed per dropback by a large margin. The Raiders defense isn’t much better, but the blitz-happy pass rush has been on one in recent weeks. Las Vegas has collected 12 sacks over the past three games after totaling only 17 in the opening 11 contests of 2024. It actually boasts the No. 4 pass rush win rate at ESPN. Jacksonville has backup Mac Jones at quarterback. He rates among the worst QBs in the league against the blitz (47^th to be exact) as well as under pressure, according to PFF, and his two turnovers cost the Jags a win over the Jets in Week 15.

With so many other stars on this offense, Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan is being overlooked. But the third-round pick is running the furthest routes of all Tampa receivers and has cemented himself as the No. 2 receiver in this offense. He has 134 yards and three TDs over his last two games and has set season/career-highs in yardage in consecutive weeks. There might be even more room for targets this week as the Bucs have some injuries. Otton was a DNP at practice on Thursday, and he had 17 targets over the last four games. Trey Palmer was also a DNP this week with an illness, and Sterling Shepard is nursing a foot injury. Fellow rookie Bucky Irving has also been limited this week. There could potentially be an extra 10 targets available Sunday when you add in the increased pass rate that an indoor game also brings.

Lamb has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games coming into Sunday night football and this showdown stinks like a shootout. Lamb’s 17 red zone targets are the eighth most among WRs but he doesn’t have to be inside the 20 to score. Tampa has allowed a ton of home run balls as well – that’s compounded by a slew of injuries at the safety position. 

Tampa Bay has trouble slowing down the passing game and has allowed 44 receptions of 20+ yards, including seven for 40+. Luckily, the Bucs can counter those shortcomings with yardage of their own. The Buccaneers have broken out for big scores during this winning streak, averaging 31 points per game. Tampa Bay has a downfield threat with Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans, which works well against the aggressive zone schemes of Cowboys coordinator Mike Zimmer but can really stick it to the Dallas defense with standout rookie RB Bucky Irving and shifty back Rashaad White. Dallas ranks as the worst run-stop unit in the NFL, sitting dead last in EPA allowed per handoff, 26th in opponent success rate per run, and 28th in yards allowed per carry.