NFL Picks

Even if the Browns employ a run-heavy gameplan, I'm not confident in Nick Chubb going Over 53.5 rushing yards vs a Steelers stop unit that ranks eighth in defensive rush EPA and holds opposing running backs to 3.9 yards per carry. Chubb has yet to surpass that number in four games, and he doesn't look anywhere near 100% since coming back from a torn ACL and MCL. That was the same knee that suffered a brutal injury in college, and it's fair to wonder if Chubb will ever be as explosive as he used to be. Chubb was on the field for just 30% of Cleveland's offensive snaps last week and had 11 carries, while backup Jerome Ford logged a 56% snap share with five carries. Chubb hasn't been able to find running room against the Saints, Chargers, and Ravens despite the downfield threat of Winston. With the Steelers able to load up the box and Chubb ceding carries to Ford, fade him here.

Winston has a strong arm but messy weather could affect his deep throws on TNF. The temperature is expected to be just above freezing, with showers that could turn into a wintry mix, but the biggest impact could be the wind off Lake Erie, with breezes projected to be in the 20 mph range. It won't help that the Steelers are seventh in the NFL in defensive dropback EPA while limiting opposing QBs to 6.4 yards per pass attempt. In addition, Cleveland's O-line allows pressure at the highest rate in the league, and LT Jedrick Wills is questionable while right tackle Dawand Jones broke his leg last week. Going up against T.J. Watt and a fierce Steelers pass rush, Winston might not have time to throw deep even if the wind dies down.

Najee Harris was limited to 63 yards on 18 carries against a tough Ravens run defense last week. However, he had rushed for more than 100 yards in three of his previous four contests and should get plenty of carries in a cold-weather game. The Browns are 25th in the league in defensive rush EPA and have really missed top linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who has been on the IR since suffering a scary neck injury in Week 8. With the Browns allowing 131.7 yards per game on the ground and ranking 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8), back Harris to go Over his rushing yards on Thursday.

Russell Wilson's highest rushing yard total in any of those games was seven, and he’s not rushing as often as he was in either Denver or Seattle. Part of the reason is Russ is much more effective in the pocket than he is with his legs. The Steelers also have Justin Fields on the sideline, so they can bring him on if they're in short-yardage situations and want to add the threat of rushing.

Pickens has caught 22 of 33 targets for 365 yards through four games with Russell Wilson behind center, and the go-to receiver has been targeted on a monster 26.2% of his routes over the four game stretch. He’s also cleared this modest 56.5 receiving yards total in each of the past four games – and seven of 10 for the season – and his eight receptions and 12 targets were season-high marks last week. The Browns have also allowed the second-highest yards per target (9.09) to opposing wide receivers this season, and the mark has soared to 11.21 since their own quarterback switch to Jameis Winston. Cleveland ranks 31st in PFF coverage grade, too, so this is a solid setup given Pickens' target share.

There’s been a lot of hit or miss in McLaurin’s game log, including a lone 10-yard reception on just two targets last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Still, the Cowboys defense has been gashed through the air during its five-game losing streak, and McLaurin needs to be involved if the Commanders are going to remain in a playoff position. Plus, the sixth-year receiver is carrying the highest aDoT (15.0) and contested catch percentage (73.9%) of his career, and Dallas has surrendered the second-highest yards per target (10.4) and catch percentage (71.3%) to opposing wideouts during its five-game skid.