We knew market correction was on its way after NFL underdogs started the 2024 schedule on a 57% winning ATS clip.
We just didn’t know it would be this severe.
Much like Christopher Nolan taking the “Batman” film franchise into gritty reality-based settings after the over-the-top campiness of director Joel Schumacher, the NFL betting results have seen a seismic shift in tone the past two weeks.
NFL underdogs went a collective 7-20-1 ATS in Weeks 5 and 6, according to the closing lines, delivering a 26% crotch shot to those taking the points.
And when you write a weekly column in which you’re bound to only betting underdogs, you’re at the mercy of that swing in spread results.
While I finished Week 6 a painful 0-3 ATS, I guess I should consider myself lucky to be 2-4 ATS over the past two Sundays. I also believe the worst is over in terms of this market correction, as there are plenty of live pups on the Week 7 odds board.
Here are my best NFL picks for Week 7.
Last week: 0-3 ATS
Season: 9-9 ATS
NFL Week 7 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Tennessee Titans (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills pick
My pick: Tennessee Titans +9.5
(-110 at SIA)
So help me God, Tennessee Titans. I wish I knew how to quit you.
I’ve bet on Tennessee more than I should have this season, but this Week 7 spread is just too big. The Titans travel to Orchard Park to face the Buffalo Bills, who are playing on a short week after a fugly win over the Jets on Monday night.
The Titans are getting as many as nine points due to their 1-4 SU and ATS mark, but I don’t see Tennessee as one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Sure, Will Levis and this offense have the cohesiveness of Shaq and Kobe circa 2003, but Dennard Wilson’s defense is for real. Tennessee is beloved by the advanced metrics, sitting No. 10 in Defensive DVOA, No. 6 in EPA allowed per play, and No. 1 in success rate allowed per snap.
We’ve seen just how “good” the Bills offense truly is over the past three games, with Buffalo putting up scores of 23, 20, and 13 versus quality defenses after scoring 112 total points against soft stop units in the first three weeks.
The Titans offense hasn’t been able to hold its shit together in the second half, despite only trailing at the break once in the first five games and leading or being tied to start the fourth quarter in four of five outings.
Tennessee couldn’t make good on short spreads in those contests but has a big buffer in Buffalo this Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers pick
My pick: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
(-110 at BetRivers)
In all my years writing this column, I can probably count on my hands the number of times I’ve had the opportunity to feature the Kansas City Chiefs — at least since Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1 in KC (and yes, I’ve been writing since before then).
In fact, according to closing numbers, the Chiefs have been underdogs in the regular season just 12 times since 2018, when Mahomes first rocked our world.
It looks like I need to throw a couple of toes into the count, and I’ll add another digit with Kansas City set as a short pup when they face the San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs might not be blowing opponents out of the water to start 2024, but this team continues to find a way to win in the end. That’s more than we can say about the 49ers, who enter Week 7 at a very pedestrian 3-3 SU and ATS.
The Niners' defense doesn’t come out of the locker room after halftime, sitting 24th in EPA allowed per play and 28th in opponent success rate in the final two frames. That stop unit is dinged up to boot, especially in the secondary.
Not only is Mahomes & Co. at their best in crunch time (No. 3 in 2H EPA per play and No. 2 in 2H success rate) but Kansas City’s defense continues to play at a Super Bowl level.
Steven Spagnuolo’s stop unit is Top 10 in many main metrics, causing chaos with blitz-heavy schemes and a league-high pressure rate per dropback. That’s bad news for quarterback Brock Purdy, who sees his PFF ratings slip dramatically when teams bring extra pass rushers (88.7 kept clean vs. 70.5 vs. blitz).
Not only have the Chiefs made good on those rare occasions as underdogs, going 8-3-1 ATS, but we also have another classic trend in play for Week 7. Head coach Andy Reid is coming off a bye week, a spot that’s pumped out a long-running 21-4 SU record and 15-10 ATS mark during his Hall of Fame career.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) pick
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5
(-110 at bet365)
The spread for Sunday Night Football was a weird one, with the Pittsburgh Steelers ranging from -2 to +1.5 on Tuesday morning.
Then the news broke that the New York Jets had traded for wideout Davante Adams.
That splash quickly balanced the market, with New York swinging as high as -2 before buyback on Pittsburgh settled the consensus spread to Steelers +1.5.
Adams isn’t an instant fix to a New York attack that’s grasping for straws. Gang Green just took play-calling away from OC Nathaniel Hackett and turned to assist Todd Downing against Buffalo on Monday, producing mixed results and a success rate per snap of just 39.7% (seventh-lowest of the week).
New York put up almost 400 yards of offense versus the Bills but finished 4-for-12 on third down, 1-for-4 in the red zone, and was lucky to post 20 points, considering seven of those came from a 52-yard Hail Mary chuck before the end of the half.
The Steelers are by far the stiffest defense Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have faced this season, entering SNF rated No. 5 in EPA allowed per play, 11th in Defensive DVOA, fifth in total takeaways (11), and boasting the third lowest TD percentage when backed up inside the red zone.
That stop unit is starting to get some support from Pittsburgh’s offense as well. The Steelers have climbed out of the basement of the offensive metrics since Week 4, with dual-threat QB Justin Fields making plays and the scoring attack — going 7-for-10 inside the red zone the previous three outings.
This is a major coaching edge for Pittsburgh, with Mike Tomlin taking on the Jets’ rag-tag bunch in the wake of the Robert Saleh firing. Tomlin is a tough out no matter the situation, but he’s an incredible 56-31-4 ATS (64%) as a regular season underdog since 2007, including 17-6-3 ATS as a home dog in those games.
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