Ravens vs Chiefs Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 1

A fresh NFL season gets underway on Thursday Night Football with a rematch of last year's AFC title game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs.

With eyes on yet another Super Bowl victory, our Chiefs vs. Ravens predictions have their eyes on Kansas City. Read more in our NFL picks below.

For full analysis of this game, see our updated Chiefs vs. Ravens predictions and our Chiefs vs. Ravens prop picks.

Ravens vs Chiefs predictions

Early spread lean
Chiefs -3 (-102 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Breaking down the Week 1 odds can be tricky when you need to evaluate new free agent signings and draft picks while seeing through a training camp full of coach speak. However, these are two of the league’s best teams and are perhaps easier than most to predict.

This isn’t the same Baltimore Ravens team we saw in last year's AFC title game, with the team losing several key players to free agency.

The loss of lead touchdown scorer Gus Edwards isn’t hugely impactful but saying goodbye to Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney—  who was dominant on the edge — will hurt what was an exceptional defense last season. The loss of Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson also means a new-look offensive line for Lamar Jackson.

The Kansas City Chiefs traded L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans, while Willie Gay left as a free agent. Other departures such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Nick Allegretti aren’t too impactful, especially when the team has added real talent in Hollywood Brown (doubtful) in free agency and wideout Xavier Worthy in this year’s draft. 

Looking back at head-to-head records can be dangerous but since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in Kansas City, he's lost to the Ravens only once in five meetings, with the Chiefs covering the spread in all five of those contests. 

We’ve also seen the Chiefs start well in recent seasons with wins in eight of their last nine openers. The team ended last season hot and there’s no reason to think Andy Reid won’t have his team ready to continue that form on Thursday.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 46.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Everyone wants to see the new season kick off with a shootout but we seldom get what we want. These Thursday Night Football odds have also moved down half a point since opening at 47.

The Over has landed in three of five meetings in the Mahomes era but it's important to note these teams combined for just 27 points in the AFC title game, someway short of the 44-point line in that game.

Even with some turnover on Baltimore's defense, this is a unit that ranked first in defensive DVOA last season and should still be among the best in 2024. It’s also worth noting the Under is 18-4 in Kansas City's last 22 games at Arrowhead.

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Ravens vs Chiefs live odds

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