There are rivalries, and then there are AFC North rivalries — none of which burn hotter than the one between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. These divisional foes face off tonight for a third time this season, with the stakes and intensity higher than ever. Kickoff from Baltimore's M&T Bank Stadium is at 8:00 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.
My Steelers vs. Ravens predictions believe that if Pittsburgh is going to stand toe-to-toe with Baltimore, it needs to not only score points but control the football and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. parked on the sideline. A healthy dose of the running game will do the trick, which means a big day from dynamic RB Jaylen Warren.
I break down the NFL odds and give my best NFL picks for Saturday, January 11.
Steelers vs Ravens predictions
- Spread pick: Steelers +10 (-120 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Ravens moneyline (-500 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Jaylen Warren Over 55.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Steelers vs. Ravens spread
This spread opened in a “no man’s land” of Ravens -8.5, with bookies looking for early sharp opinion to dictate the line move off the dead number and toward a key spot. That opinion came in hard on Baltimore, pushing this point spread to as high as -10.
We have seen some buyback on Pittsburgh at that spot, with some books down to Steelers +9.5. If you read my weekly “NFL Underdogs” column, you’ll see I snatched all those points with Pittsburgh.
These AFC North rivalries are built differently and Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin takes the fight to his divisional rivals, especially as an underdog.
I believe Baltimore’s one-sided win in Week 16 has fueled this line movement, but that game came at a terrible spot for the Steelers, who were playing back-to-back road games on a short week without star WR George Pickens.
This time around, Pittsburgh is catching more points (+10 versus +7.5) and is well rested with past success slowing down Jackson, while the Ravens are missing their stud wideout Zay Flowers. This is too many points to pass on for me.
Steelers vs Ravens moneyline
With a monster spread comes a monster moneyline. The Ravens are -500 to win outright, giving them an implied win probability around 83%. If we look at postseason’s past, playoff chalk of -500 or higher have gone 13-1 SU since 2010. That’s a 93% winning clip.
I do believe this Wild Card contest will be close than the spread would indicate but it’s tough not to like the Ravens to advance. But I want nothing to do with laying -500 for them to do so.
Steelers vs Ravens Over/Under
This Over/Under was as high as 46.5 points when odds hit the board on Sunday night. That number has since slimmed to as low as 43 before drawing some buyback on the Over, ticking the total up to 43.5 O/U.
The value with the Under has dried up after this total cruised through the key O/U stop of 44 points. I do lean toward a low-scoring finish on Saturday night.
The Steelers offense knows it can’t trade blows with the Ravens attack, so expect Tomlin to play some keep-away from Jackson with a slower tempo and plenty of short shots and run calls.
Pittsburgh’s defense wobbled a bit at the end of the year due to a terrible stretch of schedule but showed its true face in a tight loss to Cincinnati last weekend. Baltimore’s defense is also among the elite, ranking out as the top-rated stop unit in the second half of the schedule.
My best bet
Jaylen Warren Over 55.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Steelers will look to Jaylen Warren to wear multiple hats on Saturday. The versatile running back has seen his usage spike in the home stretch as his health and output improved.
Warren has become more than just a "third-down back" for the Steelers, with head coach Mike Tomlin praising his pass catching and ability to grind out gains on the ground, as well as his blocking.
He’s seen just as much action on handoffs as he has in receptions in the second half of the season, averaging 40 yards rushing and 27 yards receiving in his past nine outings.
Warren is coming off a quiet Week 18 effort in which he attempted just six runs for 21 yards and was targeted only once without a catch in the loss to the Bengals. An early 10-0 hole left Pittsburgh to pass more (just 23 handoffs vs. average of 31.4 per game), and Warren was on the field for just 38% of snaps.
However, in the Week 16 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, Warren saw his highest snap count of the season, playing 67% of offensive snaps for the Steelers. He ran 12 times for 48 rushing yards and reeled in all five passes his way for 44 yards through the air.
The Ravens have been among the stingiest run stop units in the land, allowing a league-low 3.6 yards per carry, but have been susceptible to pass-catching RBs. On the season, Baltimore allowed the fourth most receiving yards to the position.
Warren’s projections are quite positive. All but one of his rushing models resourced called for 40 or more yards, with a ceiling of 44 yards, while his receiving forecast sat above 20 yards with a high of 25.5. While the rushing projection looks good against his run yardage total of 32.5 O/U, game script says the Steelers are trailing and throwing more, which keeps Warren in play as a pass catcher.
My numbers boiled down to a collective 65.5 rushing + receiving yards from the shifty back out of Oklahoma State, which sits well above his combo prop of 55.5 yards O/U.
Steelers vs Ravens same-game parlay
Jaylen Warren 50+ rushing + receiving yards
Derrick Henry anytime TD
Steelers +10
Warren had a big game versus Baltimore in Week 16 and his projections call for more of that on Saturday.
If and when the Ravens get to the goal line, Derrick Henry will get the call. He also ran all over the Steelers in their last meeting.
This is too many points in this AFC North rivalry, especially with the Steelers in much better shape than they were in that Week 16 blowout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More Steelers vs Ravens picks from Covers
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Steelers vs Ravens odds
Steelers vs Ravens live odds
Steelers vs Ravens opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh +10 | Baltimore -10
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +360 | Baltimore -456
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore opened at -8.5 and books moved quick on early action, pushing through dead numbers and stopping at the key spot of -10.
- The Ravens closed as 7.5-point home chalk when they faced the Steelers in Week 16. Double-digit postseason faves have gone 13-5 ATS since 2010.
- The Over/Under opened at 46.5 and has slipped as low as 43, before coming back up to 43.5. That’s a half-point higher than the closing total of Week 16’s meeting, which played Over the number of 44 O/U.
- These foes have gone 2-8 Over/Under in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Covers Consensus data shows 53% of picks taking the points with Pittsburgh, and 58% siding with the Over.
Steelers vs Ravens betting trend to know
Mike Tomlin is notorious for his success as a betting underdog during his tenure in Pittsburgh (62% ATS since 2007). Make his team an underdog against the AFC North and Pittsburgh covers at a 72% clip, including a 13-3-2 ATS mark as a pup versus Baltimore. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Ravens.
Steelers vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-11-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Steelers vs Ravens latest injuries
Steelers vs Ravens weather
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