Super Bowl Props: 3 Best Bets for Chiefs vs 49ers

Prop bet #1: Can't contain the edge

Since the Chiefs' bye, Isiah Pacheco has totaled eight touchdowns, 80.5 rushing yards per game on a 4.6-ypc mark, and added in 14 receiving yards per game over an eight-game stretch. He played 80% of the snaps in the Championship game and took 28 of the offense's 59 total touches. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not a threat with just 104 rushing yards on his last 34 carries. 

This is Pacheco's backfield and he has the potential to break some big runs on Sunday vs. a 49ers defense that is getting crushed on outside runs, can't contain the edge, and is overpursuing when it does. 

San Francisco was awful containing the edge vs. the Lions, as both David Montgomery and Jamyr Gibbs had success on the outside with each collecting carries of 15-plus yards. KC’s outside run frequency is the second-highest in football at 50% and is a spot where the Chiefs could have plenty of success vs. a defense that ranked 26th in EPA/rush on the year.

If the @Lions win it’ll be in large part because of 👇🏼

PIN-PULL#nfllive pic.twitter.com/FyjITZozm8

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 24, 2024

The Niners have also been susceptible to the big rush play and have given up a 15-plus yard carry to a lead running back in five of their last six games and in each match of the playoffs. The indoor track is also working against them as the faster surface should benefit Pacheco, who ran for two TDs and had 90 total yards in this same setting vs. the Raiders this year. Additionally, the Raiders averaged 0.4 more yards per carry at home than on the road this year.

Pacheco has had a carry of at least 15 yards in 10 of his 17 games this year, and averages 0.8 breakaway carries per game, which are measured in runs of 15+ yards.

All Isiah Pacheco odds markets are on the rise, but this one is the same as his previous game despite a better matchup. The KC back will have more than a couple of opportunities to bust big gains on the outside vs. a struggling rush defense. 

Isiah Pacheco prop: Over 15.5 yards longest rush (-110 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Nothing little about Kittle

George Kittle has been racking up long receptions since Halloween. Over his last 12 games, he has long catches of 28, 32, 18, 58, 35, 44, 32, 11, 24, 66, 34, and 28 yards. That's a solid 9-2 to the Over on his longest reception over that stretch and getting another indoors vs. the Chiefs is one of my favorite plays of this Super Bowl. 

Kittle can beat coverage for long gains or rack up the YAC, as he averaged 7.4 yards after the catch, which ranked third at the position among TEs with at least 20 catches. He also doesn't need a ton of volume to do as he showed vs. the Lions with a two-catch performance, but one of them going for 28 yards. 

His yardage total has dipped after a quiet week, and everyone is healthy, but every pass-catcher in this offense has the potential to bust long gains and an indoor setting is the perfect place for added value. 

He led all players at his position by a substantial margin at 15.9 yards per catch, and his longest reception market is three yards lower than last week. 

Considering his hit rate, a three-yard drop in his market without a loss in opportunties, the indoor setting, a low-penalty officiating crew, the projections from THE BLITZ (60 yards), and leading everyone at his position in yards per gain, George Kittle odds to record at least a 21-yard reception for the 10th time in 13 games have a lot of confidence on my end. 

George Kittle prop: Over 20.5 yards longest reception (-115 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Early sweater

How about an early potential casher that has a 100% hit rate over the Chiefs' last eight playoff games?

Patrick Mahomes and this offense are +135 to score a point on their opening drive, which is something they have done in eight straight playoff games, and in 55% of their games this season. 

Now bettors are getting two weeks of Andy Reid scheming up an opening drive vs. a defense that gave up a Detroit TD in four plays in the NFC Championship and has allowed points on 10 of 19 opening drives this year.

The Chiefs' opening 10-play 88-yard drive vs. Baltimore should be put in the Louvre. They'll get a huge upgrade from a wet and windy Baltimore to Allegiant Stadium and the Reid-and-Mahomes connection is one that has dominated the beginning of playoff games since the last time these two clubs met in the Super Bowl.

If the 49ers don't correct their run defense issues, don't be surprised to see another surgical starting drive from KC. The best-case scenario for this is a KC opening kickoff, Brock Purdy and the Niners stalling out early, and Mahomes needing just 20 yards to get into field-goal position.

Harrison Butker is also a legit kicker who I can trust here, as he 's 12-for-12 from 40-plus yards this year.     

First-drive prop: Chiefs to score on first drive (+135 at bet365)