The Super Bowl odds have two weeks in the slow cooker, with the majority of action showing up in the first 12 hours after opening and in the last 12 hours before kick-off.
Getting the best of the bookies in the Big Game means getting the best number for your NFL picks and predictions.
Depending on what you like for the spread and total, that could mean betting the openers now or waiting for the market to mature and buying back adjustments later.
Here are my "Bet Now, Bet Later" lines for Super Bowl LIX.
Super Bowl 59 bet now, bet later picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Chiefs moneyline: Bet Now
The Super Bowl spread is the most efficient line you’ll run into, especially if you wait until February 9 to bet on it.
With the opening line of the Kansas City Chiefs -1.5, there’s a nasty half-point hook on the favorite on the other side of the key number of -1 — the seventh-most frequent margin in the NFL.
You can avoid all this ATS nonsense and simply take KC to win outright, shopping for the lowest moneyline on the board. As of Sunday’s SBLIX openers, that’s -120.
Kansas City brings a lot to the table, owning the coaching, experience, and quarterback edge over the Philadelphia Eagles, who the Chiefs defeated 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII.
There will be interest in the underdog’s moneyline — there always is when you have short spreads. You may see the Chiefs' outright price shorten by a couple of cents at some point in the next 14 days, but you can always bet Kansas City again at the discount later in the week.
If you believe the Chiefs can become the first team to win back-to-back-to-back Super Bowls, take the moneyline now.
Under 48.5: Bet Later
The Super Bowl is the one time of the year where public opinion outweighs sharp action. And the public, who will be gathering with friends and fans on Super Sunday, wants to bet the Over in hopes of celebrating a high-scoring showcase.
That equates to a few extra ticks in the total in the week leading up to the game. So, if you’re leaning Under between the Eagles and Chiefs, wait this one out and see if the public pumps up the Over/Under.
I don’t think it will take too much convincing to see action on the Over. Both conference title games went well beyond their closing totals, including 55 points from Philadelphia alone, and Kansas City has the necessary offensive firepower on the field.
Warning: Don’t wait on that total too long.
While we’ve seen many Super Bowl totals trend upward, there’s been buyback on that movement before the weekend. Keep an eye on the total coming out of the bye week and don’t delay getting down, especially if you see this total start sniffing the key number of 50 points.
Philadelphia is a run-first offense, which lends itself to the Under, and Vic Fangio’s defense has been among the league’s elite over the past two months. The Chiefs play a very methodical pace and Steve Spagnolo’s stop unit is of championship caliber. For what it's worth, the look-ahead total before Sunday's results was 45.5 O/U and even after the Eagles' blowout win, that number was still 48.5 O/U.
If you like the Under, wait this total out and see if you can get an extra cushion later.
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