It’s Super Bowl Sunday and regardless of whether you’re a seasoned sports bettor or dipping your toes in the Big Game wagering waters for the first time, it’s always fun to have a couple of long-shot wagers on the line.
There’s no end to the possibilities when it comes to “lottery ticket” bets, but if you’re looking for a live long shot promising a payout of +1,000 or higher (win $100 if you bet $10), then I have the NFL picks you seek!
Here’s my best Super Bowl LIX long-shot pick and prediction for Eagles vs. Chiefs on February 9.
Super Bowl long shot bet
- Kareem Hunt – First Touchdown Scorer (+1,000 at Caesars)
Best Super Bowl long shot bet
Kareem Hunt sits behind big names like Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and Travis Kelce in the touchdown markets for Super Bowl LIX despite being a vital red-zone weapon for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Hunt has secured his spot as the Chiefs' top rushing option over the past month and continues to get red zone runs over KC’s other RBs. He has 57 total RZ snaps for the Chiefs, 43 more than RB2 Isiah Pacheco.
Hunt scored seven TDs in the regular season, including touchdowns in his final two regular-season outings before the postseason.
He carried that momentum into the tournament and found the end zone in the wins over the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills, with both scores serving as the opening touchdown of those respective playoff games.
Those touchdowns also extended Hunt’s postseason scoring streak, giving him at least one TD in each of his six career playoff appearances (7 total TDs). Super Bowl LIX player projections list Hunt among the more likely touchdown scorers, forecasted as high as 0.61 touchdowns when you combine his rushing and receiving models.
Not only is Hunt a rushing option when the Chiefs are short-and-goal, but he’s also a capable pass-catching RB and has been utilized in the air attack through screens and shovel passes.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been very solid on defense and have recorded the opening touchdown in 15 of their 20 games this year. However, Kansas City’s offense is hitting its stride at the perfect time.
The Chiefs cruised through the regular season for the most part, boasting a +0.08 EPA (Expected Points Added) per play in the first 14 weeks before turning the switch to “playoff mode” late in the season.
From Week 15 to Week 17 (KC sat starters in Week 18) and including the two playoff games, Kansas City has pumped up that advanced metric to +0.133 EPA per play.
That includes topping the 30-point mark for the first time this season in the win over the Bills in the AFC title – kickstarted by a calculated first possession that was capped by a 12-yard touchdown run from Hunt.
Should the Chiefs win the coin toss and take the ball first, they’ll have a perfectly scripted opening drive and should put Hunt in position to score another career TD and be the first touchdown scorer for the third straight outing.
My best bet: Kareem Hunt – First Touchdown Scorer (+1,000 odds at Caesars)
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