We've got somewhat of a homecoming for San Francisco 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk at Super Bowl LVIII.
He grew up in Reno, Nevada and played his high school ball in the Silver State, about six and a half hours north of Las Vegas, which hosts the Super Bowl odds between San Francisco and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, February 11.
Aiyuk is having somewhat of a quiet postseason for the Niners. Outside of a monster 51-yard reception in the NFC Championship, the WR has 49 total yards on his other five receptions in the playoffs along with a touchdown against Detroit.
I size up the Super Bowl player prop odds and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Brandon Aiyuk odds.
For more NFL odds analysis and Super Bowl predictions, don't forget to consult our in-depth Chiefs vs. 49ers picks and predictions.
Brandon Aiyuk Super Bowl prop picks
- Over 63.5 receiving yards
- Over 63.5 receiving yards/Kittle Over 47.5 receiving yards/Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brandon Aiyuk Super Bowl prop pick
Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110)
With more Super Bowl props available than ever before, it’s important to set a narrative for the Big Game and make sure you’re not stepping on your own toes when it comes to all these wagers.
You wouldn’t want to bet the game total Over 47.5 and then start taking Unders on things that would feed that Over result, like yardage totals for the top players on the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
For me, I’m siding with Kansas City and expecting the Chiefs to get up early on the scoreboard. That means San Francisco will be playing from behind and having to pass more, at least in the second half.
That scripts a larger role in the offense for Brandon Aiyuk, whose numbers have been somewhat tempered in the postseason. He has just six catches through two games for a total of 100 yards — with 51 of those gains coming on one catch — but Aiyuk’s been targeted 14 times over those outings.
He played every possible snap in the Divisional Round win over Green Bay, finishing with three grabs on six targets for just 32 yards. Aiyuk was on the field for 85% of the snaps in the NFC title game, collecting three receptions on eight targets for 68 yards (again, 17 of those gains came on the other two catches).
The Super Bowl LVIII prop markets have Aiyuk’s Over/Under on receiving yards at 63.5 after opening at 65.5 and getting as high as 67.5 yards at some sportsbooks last week. That sits well below his season average of 80.1 yards per outing and reflects the Niners’ Super Bowl opposition.
Kansas City is a rock-solid defense, and the best stop unit San Francisco has faced since losing to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. The 49ers fell behind in the second half of that game and had to go pass-heavy with their playbook, leaving Aiyuk to log 94% of offensive snaps. He made the most of that action, catching six of seven targets for 113 yards.
The Chiefs’ blitz-happy defense sees their coverage match up in man-to-man often, which suits Aiyuk just fine. He finished the season rated as the fourth-best WR versus man coverage at PFF, torching other man-dependent schemes like Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Cincinnati for big games this year.
While he was equally as potent against zone coverage, Aiyuk hauled in 19.8 yards per reception against man-to-man, utilizing his blend of size and speed making him a force across the middle but also down the sideline. With this projected receptions at 4.9 against KC, his yardage forecasts are very positive.
Aiyuk’s NFL player projections for Super Bowl LVIII all come in above the 63.5-yard total, ranging from 67 yards to as many as 79. My forecast sits at 71.7 yards from the Niners wide-out.
Prop: Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Brandon Aiyuk Super Bowl same-game parlay
Brandon Aiyuk Over 63.5 receiving yards
George Kittle Over 47.5 receiving yards
Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards
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Aiyuk’s production has been up and down in the two postseason games, but he’s still drawing a ton of targets and could see more if the Niners are playing catch-up.
George Kittle has been Brock Purdy’s safety blanket vs. aggressive pass rushes like the Chiefs. His biggest days came against similar blitz-heavy attacks.
Purdy’s biggest rushing efforts have come against high-pressure pass rushes, like his 48 yards vs. Detroit in the NFC title game. Kansas City will get after him, forcing Purdy to make plays with his legs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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