Super Bowl 58, known in some circles as Super Bowl (Taylor's Version), is set for this evening at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The San Francisco 49ers will once again try to beat the Kansas City Chiefs after losing to them in the Big Game four years ago. The Super Bowl odds have seen plenty of movement since opening just after the Championship Sunday games concluded, with the 49ers holding as tepid favorites while a fairly large consensus total hangs on the board.
Super Bowl predictions are rolling in, from spread plays to Super Bowl props to even exact Super Bowl score predictions. We're chronicling how the odds have moved since opening and looking back at how these teams got here to assist you with making NFL picks and 49ers vs. Chiefs predictions for Sunday, February 11.
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Super Bowl odds for 49ers vs Chiefs
Lookahead lines prior to Championship Sunday had the San Francisco 49ers as a 3-point favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs in a potential Super Bowl matchup. But with the 49ers getting all they could handle from the Detroit Lions while the Chiefs suffocated Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense, most books opened the Niners at -2.5. Early money poured in the Chiefs to knock them down as low as +1.
The line started moving steadily toward San Francisco last week, with the 49ers moving all the way up to -2.5 again. But -2 is the consensus spread as of Sunday, with K.C. getting over 70% of the tickets and handle at BetMGM.
The current Super Bowl moneyline is not much different from the opening one, which featured the 49ers at -137 and the Chiefs at +115. We saw the range shrink to as low as 49ers -118/Chiefs -102 on Championship Sunday night, but buyback on San Fran has pushed it close to the original lines.
The total has seen arguably the least movement of all three standard markets after opening at 47, creeping up to 47.5, and staying there. The vig has moved slightly, but the standard -110 lines on both sides of 47.5 is what you'll find at most books as of Sunday afternoon.
How we got here
San Francisco 49ers
Despite what the 49ers will have you believe, San Francisco was a popular choice to make it to Super Bowl LVIII throughout the season.
bet365 listed the 49ers at +900 ahead of Week 1, and the line never got any bigger than that. San Fran dropped to as low as a +400 favorite before a three-game losing streak knocked the Niners back a bit. After jumping to +600, the 49ers' odds grew steadily shorter to +225 ahead of the playoffs to -125 right now.
Kansas City Chiefs
The defending-champion Chiefs opened as logical preseason favorites at +600, but their odds jumped to +650 after a season-opening loss to the Lions. Their Super Bowl futures gradually fell from there to +450, but after losing three of four games to fall to 9-6, doubt began to creep in.
K.C. was as long as +900 at the start of the postseason and needed to win two road playoff games, something Patrick Mahomes had never even attempted, just to get to the 58th renewal of the Big Game.
Injury update
Jerick McKinnon is officially back in the fold. The Chiefs activated the running back from injured reserve on Saturday, opening the possibility he could play in the Super Bowl. An integral part of Kansas City's backfield a season ago, McKinnon hasn't played since Week 15 when he suffered a groin injury in a 27-17 win against the Patriots. The Chiefs will make an official announcement about his availability closer to game time.
One player who won't be in uniform for the Chiefs is Kadarius Toney. The embattled wide receiver has also not played a snap since Week 15 and has seen his production plummet since a promising rookie season with the New York Giants in 2021. Toney had distant +1,100 odds to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl prior to the news breaking.
Kansas City will also be without the services of All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney. The 31-year-old veteran suffered a pectoral injury in the Divisional Round against the Buffalo Bills and was unable to participate in practice this past week. Nick Allegretti will start in his place.
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