Two weeks of hype, analysis, and anticipation come to a head in New Orleans, where the Philadelphia Eagles face the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX.
There’s no shortage of storylines for this showdown, nor is there a shortage of ways to wager on the Super Bowl odds. But when it comes to my best Eagles vs. Chiefs predictions for the Big Game, I keep it simple: who will hold the Lombardi Trophy when the confetti flies in the Caesars Superdome on Sunday night.
Here are my free NFL picks for Sunday, February 9.
Chiefs vs Eagles prediction
Chiefs vs Eagles best bet
Chiefs -1 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
Given that there’s a surplus of angles and edges for both sides, you have to boil the Super Bowl predictions down to the bones. The true basics that win a football game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have the edge at quarterback. Jalen Hurts is a fantastic player, but he’s not Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP odds favorite. Not only does No. 15 have the “Big Game balls” to thrive in the crucial moments, but he’s had success against Vic Fangio’s schemes throughout his career and comes off a sterling performance versus Buffalo in the AFC title game.
The Chiefs also have the advantage in the coaching ranks. Andy Reid and Matt Nagy have a dynamic playbook that doesn’t have to lean on one star weapon to get the job done, which makes it extremely difficult to plan for. Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo is always one play ahead of the opposition and constantly leaving rival QBs hearing the footsteps of one of the fiercest pass rushes in football.
Truth be told, I don’t know if we’ve seen the best of the Chiefs yet. From the moment they won Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas last year, the talk has been about winning three straight titles. And that goal was coming out of every players’ mouth the second the whistle blew and the confetti flew.
In order to make history as the first NFL team to win three in a row, Kansas City had to concede that the regular season was not the priority. Sure, the Chiefs played hard and pushed for the top seed, but that wasn’t the goal. The goal was surviving and getting to the postseason with the pieces intact. They’ve done that for the most part.
We got an appetizer of full-power K.C. between Week 15 and Week 17, when it seemed like the Chiefs needed to kick their own tires to see if that could turn it on at will.
It worked. Kansas City was a black hole for bettors all season, besides that three-game stretch in which it went 3-0 ATS.
The Chiefs found that same gear in the AFC Championship Game, which seemed closer than it really was. Kansas City moved the chains at will, finished a collective 6-for-10 on third/fourth down conversions, went 4-for-6 in the red zone, and cracked the 30-point bar for the first time all season.
That was good enough to beat the Bills. Kansas City will need to clear a high bar to knock off the Philadelphia Eagles, who present a much stiffer defensive challenge than any other foes the Chiefs have taken on this season.
But when you have the best coaches and the best quarterback (perhaps of all time?), things tend to work out.
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Get more Super Bowl picks (and best bets) from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
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Chiefs vs Eagles same-game parlay
Chiefs moneyline
Kareem Hunt anytime TD
Xavier Worthy 50+ receiving yards
Jalen Hurts 40+ rushing yards
The Chiefs are in for a fight, but when the smoke settles in the Big Easy Mahomes and Reid will make NFL history.
Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in all six of his postseason games and is getting the red-zone carries for Kansas City.
Xavier Worthy can break off a big play at any time and his projections call for 50 or more receiving yards in SBLIX.
Hurts has had two weeks to heal his knee and will need to make plays — and plenty of them — with his legs if Philly is going to keep pace.
Looking for more analysis? Read my full Chiefs vs. Eagles same-game parlay prediction.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs Eagles odds
Chiefs vs Eagles live odds
Chiefs vs Eagles opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -1.5 | Philadelphia +1.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -121 | Philadelphia +108
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Chiefs vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The point spread opened at Kansas City -1.5 and has dipped to -1, with the vig slimming to -105. That could indicate a move to pick’em if more Eagles money keeps shrinking this spread.
- The total opened at 48.5 and jumped to 49.5 with the initial action on the Over. However, respected action on the Under showed up late last week and knocked this down to 48.5. Any time the O/U climbs back up, the Under money comes in to correct it.
- According to Covers Consensus, 52% of spread picks are taking the Eagles as short underdogs while 69% of picks on the total are siding with the Over.
Chiefs vs Eagles betting trend to know
Kansas City is 16-7 SU and ATS in games with a spread shorter than a field goal (-2.5 to +2.5), including a 6-1 SU and ATS record in games with spreads between -1.5 and +1.5. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
How to watch Chiefs vs Eagles
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Sunday, 2-9-2025 |
| Kickoff | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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