Super Bowl Sunday is finally here and we've got a Same-Game Parlay for the Big Game that pays out at +439 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
I'm expecting the Philadelphia Eagles to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs as league champions, and they'll need to take advantage of a key weakness in this Chiefs defense if they want to do that.
I'm also expecting Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to throw for plenty of yards in a losing cause.
Chiefs vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay (SGP) for Super Bowl 59
Eagles moneyline
Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 receiving yards
Most passing yards - Patrick Mahomes
FanDuel parlay picks for Chiefs vs Eagles
Eagles Moneyline
The Kansas City Chiefs' advantages in coaching, experience, and quarterback play aren't enough to offset the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles are better everywhere else. Philly has the better defense (against both the run and the pass), the superior rushing attack, and more talent at wide receiver.
The Chiefs seldom lose during the Patrick Mahomes era but when they have come up short, the formula has been similar: Don't blitz Mahomes, instead dropping multiple defenders into coverage, and keep the Chiefs superstar QB off the field by running the ball.
The Eagles do both of those things at an elite level, generating pressure despite blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate in the league, while their ground game led by Saquon Barkley has been unstoppable.
The Eagles are 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread since their bye in Week 5, with their only defeat coming on a last-minute TD in a game where QB Jalen Hurts was sidelined with a concussion. The Chiefs have won plenty of razor-close contests where the bounces and calls have gone their way but that luck will dry up in the Super Bowl.
Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 receiving yards
For the Eagles to pull off the slim upset in the Super Bowl, they'll need to take advantage of a key flaw in this Chiefs defense — their inability to defend tight ends. Kansas City surrendered a league-high 70.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends during the regular season.
Dallas Goedert had seven catches for 85 yards against the Commanders in the NFC Championship game despite playing through an ankle injury. He has now logged 55+ receiving yards in three of his last four games and the extra time off before the Super Bowl has helped him get closer to 100%.
Steve Spagnuolo's defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league which will result in Hurts throwing the ball more to shorter pass options like Goedert.
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Most passing yards - Patrick Mahomes
It's almost a foregone conclusion that Patrick Mahomes will have the most passing yards in this game. Hurts doesn't throw for many yards and the Eagles run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Mahomes is he the best QB in the world and the Chiefs will rely on their short and intermediate passing game because their punch-less running backs won't be able to do anything on the ground.
When you also factor in that we're betting on the Eagles ML in this SGP, it stands to reason that Mahomes will also be playing with a neutral or negative game script.
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