Best NFL Interception Props for Super Bowl: Warner Presents Excellent Value

One of the biggest plays that can turn around a football game is an interception and Super Bowl history is filled with picks that altered the course of events. And we can take advantage in our Super Bowl predictions.

While there is more passing than ever in the modern NFL, shorter routes and safer throws have led to fewer interceptions. However, turnovers are still one of the most pivotal points in a game, and betting them on the Super Bowl odds board can be highly profitable.

Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for interception props at Super Bowl 58 on Sunday, February 11.

Super Bowl interception props

• Purdy Under 0.5 INTs (+100 at DraftKings)
• Mahomes Over 0.5 INTs (-115 at DraftKings) 
• Edwards Over 0.5 INTs (+900 at bet365)
• Warner Over 0.5 INTs (+1,300 at FanDuel)

Picks made on 2/6
Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Super Bowl interception props

Interception bet #1: Purdy clean sheet

Brock Purdy has led the San Francisco 49ers to 14 regular season and playoff victories this year and he threw an interception in just three of those wins. One of those came last week against Detroit when San Francisco was trailing in the second quarter and Purdy had his hand hit just as he was throwing the ball downfield.

However, he threw a pick in all four of his losses with nine interceptions during that span. For the most part, Purdy does an excellent job of avoiding turnover-worthy throws, although he does have a habit of forcing passes when the Niners are playing from behind.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 2-point underdogs in this game and have rarely jumped out to big early leads against strong opponents this season. I don't expect the Niners to trail by a large deficit early in this game, which means I'm betting Purdy won't get picked off — especially by a Chiefs secondary that rarely makes plays on the ball.

Despite having one of the highest-rated pass defenses in the NFL, the Chiefs were just 20th in the NFL in passes defended and didn't have many picks. In fact, they average just 0.5 interceptions per game, which puts them in a tie for the second-fewest in the league with only the Titans behind them.

Brock Purdy prop: Under 0.5 interceptions thrown (+100 at DraftKings)

Interception bet #2: Picked-off Patrick

Patrick Mahomes hasn't thrown an interception in his last four games and remarkably hasn't had a single turnover-worthy play during that span. However, before that four-game stretch, he had thrown a pick in 11 of 15 contests.

Mahomes is a two-time regular season and Super Bowl MVP but, like any superstar, some matchups give him trouble and this San Francisco stop unit fits that bill. Mahomes doesn't look his best when facing teams that can generate a strong pass rush without blitzing, which allows multiple defenders to drop back into coverage. The 49ers had the eighth-most sacks in the league despite blitzing at the third-lowest frequency and their ability to get pressure with just their front enables their linebackers and defensive backs to clog up passing lanes.

The 49ers finished the regular season tied for first in the league with 22 interceptions and also picked off Jordan Love twice in the divisional round. Although Mahomes wasn't picked off in last year's Big Game, he was intercepted twice in each of his first two trips to the Super Bowl. I'm betting on him to get picked off at least once on Sunday by this opportunistic San Francisco defense.

Patrick Mahomes prop: Over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-115 at DraftKings) 

Interception bet #3: Mike drop

While I don't expect Purdy to get intercepted, there's value in sprinkling a bit of money on Chiefs safety Mike Edwards to come away with the pick if he does. 

With two interceptions, L'Jarius Snead was the only Chiefs player to have more than a single interception during the regular season and his 14 passes defended were twice as many as any other defender. However, the Over on Snead's 0.5 interceptions prop is installed at +600, which is easily the lowest payout of any K.C. player and doesn't seem to take into account that Purdy rarely throws interceptions to the outside where boundary corners like Snead usually reside. 

Purdy has thrown just two interceptions to the outside of the field while 10 of his interceptions have come up the middle (with seven coming on passes more than 10 yards downfield). That makes it more likely that a safety like Edwards will come away with a pick. 

Edwards was fourth on the Chiefs with five passes defended during the regular season despite not starting until Week 14 when Bryan Cook ended up on the IL. Edwards had one interception in the regular season and another during the Wild Card round. Since he spends the majority of his snaps lined up at free safety patrolling the middle of the field, he'll be in a good position to snag an interception if Purdy forces the ball downfield.

Mike Edwards prop: Over 0.5 interceptions made (+850 at bet365)

Interception bet #4: Right said Fred

While most of Purdy's interceptions are on passes up the middle of the field, Mahomes has a fairly even split between picks up the middle and toward the sidelines. He has been picked off three times on short throws up the middle while getting intercepted another time up the middle on an intermediate pass. That gives a ton of betting value on backing 49ers linebacker Fred Warner to come away with an INT at +1,300.

Cornerback Charvarius Ward led the Niners with five interceptions and led the league with 23 passes defended during the regular season and he has the lowest interception odds (+650) of any 49ers defender. However, with Ward becoming known as a shutdown defender, teams have been throwing away from him. There have been just 3.3 targets per game coming Ward's way over the last six weeks after seeing 6.5 targets per game through his first 12 games. It's also worth noting that Ward primarily lines up at left cornerback, which is away from the Chiefs' best wide receiver Rashee Rice, so expect them to avoid throwing to Ward's side of the field. 

However, Mahomes will likely target All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, which should give Warner opportunities to make plays on the ball. Warner is one of the top coverage linebackers in the league and had four interceptions during the regular season while ranking second on the team with 11 passes defended. 

Being able to back Warner to get an interception at twice Ward's payout is fantastic value.

Fred Warner prop: Over 0.5 interceptions made (+1,300 at FanDuel)

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