Super Bowl 58 has superstar players on both sides of the ball and San Francisco's Nick Bosa might be the best defensive player of the bunch. Bosa's ability to pressure Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes could be one of the most pivotal storylines in our Super Bowl predictions.
Bosa hasn't lived up to his lofty standards this season, and coupled with the Chiefs allowing the second-fewest sacks in the NFL, his defensive player props are currently at lower numbers than usual. That makes it extremely tempting to bet the Over on Nick Bosa odds this Sunday.
I break down the Super Bowl odds and bring you my free NFL picks for Bosa at Super Bowl 58.
Be sure to also check out our full Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions before placing your Sunday bets!
Nick Bosa Super Bowl prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Nick Bosa Super Bowl prop pick
To record a sack (-104)
Although Bosa sacked Jared Goff twice in the NFC Championship, that snapped a streak of four straight games where the San Francisco 49ers defensive end failed to get a sack. Bosa was named the league's Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 after racking up a career-high 18.5 sacks.
However, his sack total dipped to 10.5 this year, which may have been partially due to a holdout that caused him to be away from the team until just days before the regular season began.
That said, Bosa ranked third in the NFL among edge rushers with a pass rush grade of 92.6, indicating that he is still consistently beating his man and generating pressure. Interestingly, the Over 0.25 sacks for Bosa is currently priced at -104 at FanDuel, despite fluctuating between -140 and -175 for most of the season.
Bosa made headlines last week when he said "they hold a lot" when asked if he's seen anything special from Kansas City Chiefs' offensive tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. While some think that he gave the defending Super Bowl champs bulletin board material with that quote, he's not wrong. Taylor has been called for a league-high seven holding penalties, with Smith not far behind with five despite playing just 12 games.
Bosa primarily lines up at the left defensive end, which means he'll match up against Taylor who mans the right tackle spot. Among offensive tackles with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps this season, Taylor ranked 46th with a pass-blocking grade of 64.7. Since Week 6, he has surrendered five sacks, and Taylor's pass-blocking grade of 46.3 against the Ravens and 37.7 versus the Bills doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Although the Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league, the majority of pressure they've allowed has come from the tackle positions. If anyone gets a sack for San Fran, there's a good chance that it will be Bosa taking advantage of an overwhelmed Taylor.
Prop: To record a sack (-104 at FanDuel)
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