NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions For the Super Bowl

I’ve been lucky enough to make my way to Phoenix for Super Bowl LVII this year, doing the pregame rounds on radio row while creating some excellent content with Covers.

From the moment I touched down, it was very clear that Super Bowl LVII is sports betting’s Super Bowl. 

The buildings are plastered in 20-story ads for sportsbooks, billboards flash with promos and bet bonuses, and the biggest footprints in the Super Bowl media center belong to the bookies, with places like Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings featured prominently.

And even though sports betting has been legal for a few years now, it still blows me away to see the NFL and sports gambling strolling hand-in-hand into the Arizona sunset.

I’ve been doing this thing for almost 20 years now and at points along that road, it seemed sports betting would never emerge from the shadows and takes its place in the mainstream sports spotlight. 

But here we are.

You could call it an underdog story, but calling a thriving multi-billion dollar industry an underdog is like calling Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl odds underdogs.

But again, here we are, with K.C. catching as much as two points versus the Philadelphia Eagles.

Thanks so much for following along for another season of NFL Underdogs and best of luck betting “our” Super Bowl.

Here are my NFL Underdogs Super Bowl pick and some “plus money” underdog props for the Big Game. 

NFL picks against the spread for the Super Bowl 

• Chiefs +2

Click on pick to jump to the full analysis.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles pick

If you read my Super Bowl picks and predictions piece last week or listened to the Sharp 600 podcast, you know I took Kansas City +2. And while that spread has seen buyback since, dropping to +1.5, there are a number of books back to +2 with one-sided money on the Philadelphia Eagles as we close in on the weekend.

This game has been analyzed deeper than a vague Taylor Swift tweet, so there’s not much I can say that hasn’t already been spit out, eaten up, and vomited out again like a dog. But here’s a quick recap:

The spread is wrong. The Kansas City Chiefs were power-rating darlings all year and were 1-point favorites on the look-ahead line before Championship Sunday. From there, the Eagles cruised past an armless Niners team while KC finally beat a Bengals squad that could have been the best team entering the postseason. Even some of the official Super Bowl openers were as high as Kansas City -1.5 before the market swing to Philly.

The Philadelphia Eagles’ strength of schedule is a hot topic, but for me, it’s all about their QB strength of schedule (which I ranked out dead last at the start of the season) and what happened when they played capable passers and solid offenses. Plenty of points from those foes, that’s what. Now, Philadelphia faces its greatest threat: MVP Patrick Mahomes and an offense that made advanced stat heads change their pants.

Don’t discount the Chiefs defense. Kansas City’s stop unit is a lot like the Golden State Warriors: they know when to peak. Playoff Spags is a different animal. Let’s not forget this is the DC that brought 18-0 Brady to his knees back in Super Bowl XLII. The Chiefs have a defensive line that brings the heat and finished second in the NFL (behind the Eagles) in sacks. Jalen Hurts hasn’t faced much pressure this season, but when he has, it hasn’t been pretty. He ranks 54th in passer rating under duress, completing just 45% of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt.

You may be asking, “why not take KC on the moneyline then?” which will be a very popular option on this game for many fans. 

For me, the +2 (and even the +1.5) is a protection against what bookies and the betting markets see as a slim, slim margin. This line has moved through pick’em at many books that were higher on Kansas City, and getting on the other side of the undervalued key number of one is a winner if the Chiefs or Eagles win by a single point on Sunday.

PICK: Kansas City +2 (-110 at WynnBET)

Plus-money Super Bowl LVII props

Josh Sweat sacks pick

I made this bet last week at +140 on the Over half a sack for Eagles standout defensive end Josh Sweat. It has since moved to +125, but it promises a solid payout for a player who’s had a nose for the quarterback the past two months.

Given the high total and game script, Mahomes will be dropping back plenty against a stop unit that led the league in QB kills. Sweat has accounted for 12.5 of those sacks, with nine coming in his last eight games overall.

The Chiefs took three sacks against Cincy last week and will have their eye on LB Haasan Reddick on every snap, throwing extra bodies at him. That could leave mismatches in pass protection for the Philadelphia ends, drawing TEs and RBs helping out. 

Sweat is an every-down DE, unlike Brandon Graham (Over 0.5 sacks +160) who has become a rotational pass rusher, so his chances of getting to Mahomes are worth the shorter payout on this sack prop.

Pick: Josh Sweat Over 0.5 sacks (+125 at BetRivers)

Total rushing touchdowns pick

This one seems live considering how the Eagles go about their business on the ground, scoring a league-high in rushing touchdowns and throwing a deep rotation of ball carriers at a Kansas City defense that ranks 20th in Red Zone Rush Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders.

We’ve seen Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell, and Hurts all run one in during the postseason, so there’s no shortage of options. As for Kansas City, RB Isiah Pacheco emerged as a red-zone threat on the ground toward the end of the season, and Mahomes is also a threat to take off if he sees daylight and painted grass in front of him.

Pick: Over 2.5 rushing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings)

Travis Kelce rushing attempt pick

Why not go out on a big one for the Big Game.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is not shy about rolling out some surprise plays on the big stage and Kansas City has been practicing a lot of situational football this week, the perfect stage to call a WTF play.

Kansas City displayed a couple trick calls against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship Game and there’s a chance we get star tight end Travis Kelce with a surprise carry in Super Bowl LVII.

We’ve seen Reid and his disciples (guys like Matt Nagy and Doug Pederson) dial up the tight-end run from time to time, including TE2 Noah Grey getting a carry against Jacksonville in the Divisional Round. The Ringer recently did a rundown of Reid’s bag of tricks and highlighted a package with Kelce at QB in the shotgun, flanked by two runners with pass/run options all over the place.

Philadelphia is a fantastic defense with a big nasty front that has gotten much stingier against the run in recent weeks. The Eagles are also No. 6 in Defensive DVOA on third/fourth down situations. If the Chiefs need a crucial carry on a short-yardage situation, Reid could look to his burly TE to blast through the line as a ball carrier.

Pick: Will Travis Kelce have a rushing attempt - Yes (+600 at Superbook)

Last week: 0-1 ATS (-1.0 Unit)
Season: 26-30 ATS -3.94 units (risking 1 unit per play)

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