The Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers tonight in Super Bowl 58. While it's a rematch of Super Bowl 54, a lot has changed in four years — starting with the 49ers being led by quarterback Brock Purdy.
The "Mr. Irrelevant" of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy has become a star in San Francisco and was the MVP front-runner until he threw four picks against the Ravens in Week 16.
Purdy's Super Bowl odds are expected to be a highly debated option in the NFL player props market. While he's surrounded by game-changing weapons, an inexperienced signal-caller facing one of the league's top defensive units still adds an element of uncertainty.
I break down the Brock Purdy odds and give my best NFL picks and predictions for how he'll perform in his first Super Bowl on Sunday, February 11. For more NFL odds analysis and Super Bowl predictions, be sure to check out our 49ers vs. Chiefs picks.
Brock Purdy Super Bowl prop picks
- Under 245.5 passing yards
- Under 245.5 passing yards/Over 11.5 rushing yards/Aiyuk Over 63.5 receiving yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brock Purdy Super Bowl prop pick
Under 245.5 passing yards (-110)
Despite criticism from nay-sayers, Brock Purdy is more than a game-manager and finished the regular season completing 69.4% of his passes for 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns. He has also thrown for 250+ yards in each playoff game while leading the San Francisco 49ers to a pair of come-from-behind victories.
That said, there's reason to fade him on his passing yards total against a stingy Kansas City Chiefs pass defense. Keep in mind that Purdy likes to throw it deep, but Kansas City's secondary does an excellent job of making their tackles and preventing explosive plays.
The Chiefs finished the regular season second in the league in both sacks (57) and pressure rate (27.8%). That, combined with some strong coverage from corners L'Jarius Snead and Trent McDuffie, has helped them form one of the top pass defenses in the league. In addition, Steve Spagnuolo's defense ranks eighth in the league in defensive DVOA against tight ends, so they should also be able to limit George Kittle.
During the regular season and playoffs, Kansas City allowed just 181.5 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Although they surrendered 272 passing yards to MVP favorite Lamar Jackson last week, the Chiefs held star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa below 200 passing yards in their first two playoff games.
Not only do the Chiefs pass the eyeball test and look great in terms of traditional stats against the pass, but the analytics are also in their favor. They rank third in the league in defensive dropback EPA and second in defensive dropback success rate.
While the Chiefs have been terrific against the pass. they've struggled against the run, ranking just 28th in defensive rush EPA. The 49ers already run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and head coach Kyle Shanahan might be even more inclined to target the Chiefs' weakness on the ground rather than test them through the air with a young QB like Purdy.
Prop: Under 245.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Brock Purdy Super Bowl same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Under 245.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy Over 11.5 rushing yards
Brandon Aiyuk Over 63.5 receiving yards
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While I'm fading Purdy on his passing yards total, I do think there's a good chance that he'll eclipse his rushing yards total. Purdy isn't known as a scrambler but he rushed for 48 yards on five carries against the Lions last week.
He has shown a willingness to run in games where the Niners need him to step up. Purdy picked up 14 yards on six carries against the Packers in the divisional round, scampered for 57 yards in a Week 8 loss to the Bengals, and rushed five times for 19 yards against the Vikings in Week 7.
The Chiefs finished the regular season allowing 20.1 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs — the 10th-worst number in the league. In the playoffs, they've allowed Jackson and Allen to rush for more than 50 yards each, while also giving up 25 yards on the ground to the less mobile Tagovailoa. With the Chiefs also generating a strong pass rush, there's a good chance that Purdy will be flushed out of the pocket and forced to pick up yards with his feet.
It's counterintuitive to take the Under on Purdy's passing yards and the Over on his top receiver's receiving yards, but it could hit at this low number, and the negative correlation creates a nice multiplier for this SGP.
Keep in mind that a whopping 30.8% of Purdy's passing yards this season went to Brandon Aiyuk, and the wideout's receiving yards O/U for the Super Bowl sits at a modest 63.5 — just 25.8% of Purdy's passing yards total. Purdy has thrown for fewer than 245 passing yards in six games this season, and Aiyuk racked up more than 100 receiving yards in three of those contests while totaling 76 yards in another.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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