Christian McCaffrey is No. 3 on the Super Bowl MVP odds and is catching the shortest number of all non-quarterbacks for a reason. He accounts for 32% of the San Francisco 49ers offense's total yardage output per game and is priced as short as -286 for a touchdown because of it.
After taking a peek at the Christian McCaffrey odds, these are my favorite Super Bowl picks surrounding the San Francisco running back come Sunday.
For more Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl predictions, be sure to check out our 49ers vs. Chiefs picks.
Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl prop picks
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Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl prop pick
Over 18.5 rushing attempts (-122)
Before I even look at Christian McCaffrey’s markets, I want to build a baseline for his volume in general. Predicting the total play volume and his opportunities are the foundation of creating a solid projection and when targeting a single player, this is the only way to do it.
The San Francisco 49ers don’t run a ton of plays and rank near the bottom of the league in terms of pace of play. Because of that, Kyle Shanahan’s offense averaged 60.7 players per game on the year which ranked 26th in the league.
They managed 64 and 66 plays in the playoffs but also faced substantial deficits in those games and played faster because of it. There's a slight adjustment for the indoor setting that does increase volume and efficiency but I’m settling on 62 total plays from this offense.
The 49ers run at a high rate (48.2%) which would create 29.9 rushing plays and 32.1 passing plays if projecting 62 total plays from the offense. McCaffrey gets about 65 to 70% of the carries and with Deebo getting work and Purdy stealing some runs, I’m settling in the middle at 67.5% of the carries.
Taking his 5.3 yards per carry and the Kansas City Chiefs' 4.5 yards against, a reasonable projection for the RB is 19.4 carries and 97 rushing yards. His recent neck injury is a little worrying but with the extra week, he should be fine by game time. Keep in mind: this is on the low end at 67.5% of the carries.
That's giving a little value on his Over 18.5 carries at -122 and Over 90.5 rushing yards at -110. Now, let’s look at the receiving stats.
CMC has a 19.3% target share on the year with an 81% catch rate while running 21.9 routes per game. With a healthy set of pass catchers, that target share should take a slight dive as Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel didn’t play in three separate games this year and CMC totaled 14 catches for 145 yards on 15 targets in those games.
With 32.1 passing plays projected, an 18% target share, 5.78 projected targets, and 4.68 projected receptions, at his average of 8.4 yards per reception and accounting for KC allowing just 6.34 yards per catch, I’m happy with a projected receiving yardage total of 36.5 on 4.68 catches.
Those numbers are pretty bang on with his current markets but his Under 4.5 receptions is +110 to the Under and climbing which could make for a great target later as the public pumps his Overs.
I think the best angle early this week is with his Over 18.5 carries at -122 with a projection of 19.4. Shanahan did not abandon the run last game in the second half and still got CMC the ball in the run game despite being in catch-up mode.
There could even be a bump in overall play volume as the 49ers lead the league in yards per play thanks to getting big yards on plays that don’t usually go long. If KC’s elite defense keeps the 49ers in check in terms of explosive plays, there could be more overall plays for this offense but at a lower EPA/play.
FanDuel has the best price on the board with the rushing attempts but I suggest bettors keep an eye on his reception market and look to hit the Under 4.5 at +125 or better.
Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 rushing attempts (-122 at FanDuel)
Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl same-game parlay
Over 90.5 rushing yards
First-half TD
Under 4.5 receptions
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FanDuel doesn't allow rushing attempts in its SGPs but if you have that option, I'd swap out the reception play for carries for a deducted payout at +300 or better.
I have a modest projection of 96.4 rushing yards on 19.4 carries and that's at 67.5% of the team's rushing share. The 49ers are one of the best-scripted offenses in football and have scored on the opening drive in 10 of their 19 games this year.
McCaffrey has also scored in 15 of 18 games this year with 16 of his 25 total TDs coming in the first half. He's scored in 15 games this year and had a first-half TD in 13 of those 15 contests.
The Under receptions is more +EV than probable as the projection is 4.68 but at plus money to the Under, it still projects well despite close to a 50% win rate.
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